Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Is this what we are waiting on here?

This would argue in favor of the broadening top scenario, with one more touch up in the ether.

Nikkei
DJIA
SPX

13 comments:

christiangustafson said...

I swear one of these mornings we are going to wake up to a 30% dislocation in the Yen, and it will fuel panic and horror instead of the fun carry trade good times. But not yet.

Phat Repat said...

It ain't over yet, but it sure is getting ugly. These could just be end of month shenanigans so the close will tell all.

1983.03/1986.84 using current data to end bear/stop loss.

And, agree with what Bicycle said; quite nasty if it plays out so.

Phat Repat said...

Of course, one might consider that having the reserve currency, and the abuses of such privilege, are also major factors of our current situation.

Ultimately, that which can't be supported, won't be.

Phat Repat said...

Wild day! Looks like bears have survived, for now. Values with current data are now 1984.04/1987.25. Hmmmm...

Commodities; that was ugly! Had a nice 56% profit on USO options that got wiped out in short order leading to -4% loss. My turn in the barrel. ;-)

Phat Repat said...

And now our first case of Ebola. We know how much the markets like uncertainty. Limit down tomorrow?

Phat Repat said...

Numbers shaping up nicely. With current data we have: 1987.42/1990.63 with a T1 of 1894.47 and T2 of 1876.20. I'll take it.

Bryan Franco said...

By closing below 1951, we officially have a 3%+ "correction". That means that the next all-time closing highs (assuming they do not follow the same sequence of dips 5%+, 3-5%, 3-5% that led up to the last ATH) along the way, become candidate all time closing highs that can lead to 20% + declines in the S&P 500. Follow that???

Bryan Franco said...

The only trailing sequence of 3-5 and 5%+ of declines that occur immediately before an ATH that has never led to a 20% + decline from said ATH is the following (5% +, 3-5%, 3-5%). That exact sequence led up to the last ATH. If we were to make a new ATH from here, the trailing sequence would become 3-5, 3-5, 3-5. That is eligible for a top. So are six others that are eligible for a top. There are (2^3 = 8 such sequences).

Phat Repat said...

Bryan, that's great. But what does it all mean? Numbers in layman's terms. ;-)

Bryan Franco said...

It means that according to the conditions of this study, we still need another all time closing high before we can decline more than 20% from our last all time closing high.

pb said...

Christian

Any comments on today's decline??

Thanks

Phat Repat said...

Okay, and how reliable is that study compared to the past? And what numbers are we looking at? Would be nice to see what levels you're talking about, numerically.

christiangustafson said...

Hi pb.

I just posted an updated count.