Monday, September 29, 2014

Point of recognition: (iii) of 3 today?

At 1.618x wave (i) of 3, I believe it would target 1933 SPX.  And to think I ran into both a bear and a real, live, red-in-tooth-and-claw cougar on the trail in the North Cascades this weekend.

Good luck out there, it's raining anvils.

Not investment advice

16 comments:

Permabear Doomster said...

*good morning

sp'1930s would clarify that 1920/00 zone will be hit, which opens up my weekly7a H/S scenario.

Today, I'd gladly settle for 1955/45.. seems viable.

Christian Gustafson said...

The upper line of resistance on this is about 1945 SPX at the end of the week. From there it's another 41 handles down to the 200 DMA at 1904 next week.

This move would correspond to the initial 41-handle break off the 2019 top. So I'd like to see us close the week right at 1945 to set that one up.

Permabear Doomster said...

re: From there it's another 41 handles down to the 200 DMA at 1904 next week.

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If... that occurs..it would give me confidence to call 2019 inter'3 top.

From there..the BIG money will be made on the bounce ...shorting...somewhere in the 1970/90 zone in Oct/Nov.

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Watching clown finance TV.. they are getting a little concerned at the increasing volatility.

Watch the VIX.. bears need 17s.

Christian Gustafson said...

From there..the BIG money will be made on the bounce ...shorting...somewhere in the 1970/90 zone in Oct/Nov.

You are exactly correct. 3PDH takes us from that high directly to support at 1737 SPX.

Phat Repat said...

Looking good so far. If trend stays intact, I see current target of 1894 followed by 1886. I would change my mind if we see 1993 (though this value changes with each passing day).

Christian Gustafson said...

OMG, they may have held the dike on this one.

Which means we probably have another high left to go.

Broadening top -- look at the megaphone on the SPX. Give it one more touch in the 10/8 turn window.

Amazing.

Permabear Doomster said...

CG, you're getting overly rattled by intraday morning bounce.

*there is $2bn of QE today.... none tomorrow.
-

yours... trying to be patient

Christian Gustafson said...

A (iii) of 3 move should be raw panic selling. There is support in the form of a broadening top megaphone.

All we have to do is break out over the top (bearish) trendline now and the bears will suffer a resounding defeat. Then we can easily make new ATHs just on the vapors of this rout.

She's a knife-fight.

Phat Repat said...

They are fighting the good fight but the mornings are mostly noise and DTs. I'll wait for the pros to show their hands late afternoon. ;-)

Bicycle said...

Don't think we'll see a supercycle top in the Dow now until early 2016. The bulls will get a good scare, though, in the next couple of months.

Dow Jones Industrial Average, Bearish Rising Wedges.

Bicycle said...

Whoops, I mean early 2015, not '16.

T.Berry said...

damn! didn't add anything. mkt strength continues to amaze. is wanting a 3/4% pullback too much to ask?

Christian Gustafson said...

We went from a -20 handle /ES move to what may very well be a green close.

Does the tape since the 2019 satisfy the "one more decline" requirement that Bryan had been holding out for this tape?

2nd week of October -- top of the megaphone is up around 2034 SPX. I'll cheer the index to make it up there, on fumes, broken bears, whatever is left.

Bryan Franco said...

Sadly, this decline hasn't reached 3% + on a close-close basis. Need that first before the next ATH is in fact a candidate ATH. So if we make new ATH from here, it would not be one that has ever led to a 20% + correction. If we breach 1905 from here outright, I will be playing for a decline that does not exceed 20%.

T.Berry said...

permabear, i dont' believe qe had as much to do with stocks rising as most think. taper began back in jan/14 and since snp has done nothing but go up (something like 44 new ath's during that time) and qe is down to 15b/mo from 85b/mo. no qe today and futures are soaring. what am i missing? just my 2cnts

Phat Repat said...

Pretty amazing battle going on here. Though we all know the market can remain irrational far longer than we can remain solvent, you have to wonder when all the bad news will finally catch up to reality.

That being said, with current data, a close above 1983 would negate my bearish view. That value changes throughout the day, but it is what it is. ;-)