tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post5175796180645879241..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Point of recognition: (iii) of 3 today?christiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-61152542016245999872014-09-30T07:03:09.993-07:002014-09-30T07:03:09.993-07:00Pretty amazing battle going on here. Though we al...Pretty amazing battle going on here. Though we all know the market can remain irrational far longer than we can remain solvent, you have to wonder when all the bad news will finally catch up to reality.<br /><br />That being said, with current data, a close above 1983 would negate my bearish view. That value changes throughout the day, but it is what it is. ;-)Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-90115381620162223582014-09-30T03:28:49.439-07:002014-09-30T03:28:49.439-07:00permabear, i dont' believe qe had as much to d...permabear, i dont' believe qe had as much to do with stocks rising as most think. taper began back in jan/14 and since snp has done nothing but go up (something like 44 new ath's during that time) and qe is down to 15b/mo from 85b/mo. no qe today and futures are soaring. what am i missing? just my 2cntsT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-8147412156379840902014-09-29T13:09:58.828-07:002014-09-29T13:09:58.828-07:00Sadly, this decline hasn't reached 3% + on a c...Sadly, this decline hasn't reached 3% + on a close-close basis. Need that first before the next ATH is in fact a candidate ATH. So if we make new ATH from here, it would not be one that has ever led to a 20% + correction. If we breach 1905 from here outright, I will be playing for a decline that does not exceed 20%.Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-9983246155203822902014-09-29T12:33:46.108-07:002014-09-29T12:33:46.108-07:00We went from a -20 handle /ES move to what may ver...We went from a -20 handle /ES move to what may very well be a green close. <br /><br />Does the tape since the 2019 satisfy the "one more decline" requirement that <b>Bryan</b> had been holding out for this tape?<br /><br />2nd week of October -- top of the megaphone is up around 2034 SPX. I'll cheer the index to make it up there, on fumes, broken bears, whatever is left.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-89885842881383469762014-09-29T12:26:39.238-07:002014-09-29T12:26:39.238-07:00damn! didn't add anything. mkt strength conti...damn! didn't add anything. mkt strength continues to amaze. is wanting a 3/4% pullback too much to ask? T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-61408753620818629302014-09-29T07:55:46.928-07:002014-09-29T07:55:46.928-07:00They are fighting the good fight but the mornings ...They are fighting the good fight but the mornings are mostly noise and DTs. I'll wait for the pros to show their hands late afternoon. ;-)Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-52547784611875023672014-09-29T07:55:21.391-07:002014-09-29T07:55:21.391-07:00A (iii) of 3 move should be raw panic selling. Th...A (iii) of 3 move should be raw panic selling. There is support in the form of a broadening top megaphone.<br /><br />All we have to do is break out over the top (bearish) trendline now and the bears will suffer a resounding defeat. Then we can easily make new ATHs just on the vapors of this rout.<br /><br />She's a knife-fight.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-23105281364961008762014-09-29T07:43:57.393-07:002014-09-29T07:43:57.393-07:00CG, you're getting overly rattled by intraday ...CG, you're getting overly rattled by intraday morning bounce.<br /><br />*there is $2bn of QE today.... none tomorrow.<br />-<br /><br />yours... trying to be patientTrading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-85297813530172431422014-09-29T07:37:44.979-07:002014-09-29T07:37:44.979-07:00OMG, they may have held the dike on this one.
Whi...OMG, they may have held the dike on this one.<br /><br />Which means we probably have another high left to go.<br /><br />Broadening top -- look at the megaphone on the SPX. Give it one more touch in the 10/8 turn window.<br /><br />Amazing.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-60678401432193178332014-09-29T07:16:51.345-07:002014-09-29T07:16:51.345-07:00Looking good so far. If trend stays intact, I see...Looking good so far. If trend stays intact, I see current target of 1894 followed by 1886. I would change my mind if we see 1993 (though this value changes with each passing day).Phat Repathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04401209340036026677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-50370266071821696742014-09-29T06:19:41.727-07:002014-09-29T06:19:41.727-07:00From there..the BIG money will be made on the boun...<i>From there..the BIG money will be made on the bounce ...shorting...somewhere in the 1970/90 zone in Oct/Nov.</i><br /><br />You are exactly correct. 3PDH takes us from that high directly to support at 1737 SPX.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-92114147624830578212014-09-29T06:03:49.311-07:002014-09-29T06:03:49.311-07:00re: From there it's another 41 handles down to...re: From there it's another 41 handles down to the 200 DMA at 1904 next week. <br /><br />--<br />If... that occurs..it would give me confidence to call 2019 inter'3 top.<br /><br />From there..the BIG money will be made on the bounce ...shorting...somewhere in the 1970/90 zone in Oct/Nov.<br /><br />--<br />Watching clown finance TV.. they are getting a little concerned at the increasing volatility.<br /><br />Watch the VIX.. bears need 17s.Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-80697263057345175042014-09-29T05:59:18.708-07:002014-09-29T05:59:18.708-07:00The upper line of resistance on this is about 1945...The upper line of resistance on this is about 1945 SPX at the end of the week. From there it's another 41 handles down to the 200 DMA at 1904 next week. <br /><br />This move would correspond to the initial 41-handle break off the 2019 top. So I'd like to see us close the week right at 1945 to set that one up.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-7839035601231732212014-09-29T05:46:56.222-07:002014-09-29T05:46:56.222-07:00*good morning
sp'1930s would clarify that 192...*good morning<br /><br />sp'1930s would clarify that 1920/00 zone will be hit, which opens up my weekly7a H/S scenario.<br /><br />Today, I'd gladly settle for 1955/45.. seems viable.Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.com