Monday, September 22, 2014

The bearish count from here

Last week my sister was in town from upstate New York, so I took her up Sahale Arm above Cascade Pass.  We had a nice day out in the Cascades.  You can see that the blueberries are just starting to get their fall color.

looking south over Sahale Arm, North Cascades NP

First order of business this week is to get back to 1978 SPX for a bounce; then we can reject off the old channel in a few days.  This will give us a stealth wave 1 off Friday's high.

SPX 09-22
SPX 09-22 3PDH

9 comments:

Bicycle said...

World Population Since 10,000 B.C., Bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge.

Bicycle said...
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Bicycle said...

Obvious falling wedge on the Dow today.

That puts in a bottom and we are now headed up on the 5th and final wave up of our Dow rising wedge that began in early August.

Upward target would be roughly 17400 unless the wave fails early.

This would also be a potential final kissback to the old rising wedge from the beginning of 2014.

Additionally, it would be a potential final kissback to the rising wedge that started from the bottom in 2009 and terminated with the red candle at the end of July.

Lastly, it could be a final touch of the top of the massive Dow bear megaphone from 2000.

It's end times, folks! This could be the last wave up in this Grand Supercycle!

Christian Gustafson said...

If SPY AH is any indication, it looks like we open at that 1978 low in the morning.

Bicycle said...

Yep.... scary....

Christian Gustafson said...

Aaaaaand there's 1978 SPX.

Halfway-back retrace up at 2000, which is also the old channel lower bound -- tomorrow (Thursday).

We either kiss it back and head straightaway to 1925, or the bears get one more shellacking.

Blow up the world.

Christian Gustafson said...

I dunno, maybe it's just my bias, but the tape this morning feels kinda bearish to me.

Bicycle said...

Here is yesterday on the Dow...

After today's downwave completes (and frankly, I don't think we'll head much lower from current levels today on the Dow), we should have at least one more run at 17300-17400 levels on the Dow. Then we should become VERY bearish.

Bicycle said...

In fact, we have a small descending broadening right angle formation on the Dow right now that could form a floor right here.