Monday, May 19, 2014

Charts 05-19: Anniversary eve

As I noted the other day, tomorrow is the 6-year anniversary of the 1440 "B" wave high on the SPX, which kicked off the "crash season" of the big nasty waves in late 2008.

We have a setup for an early pop and hard reversal, where the SPX would count as a "failed" 5th here for not setting a new high.  We would then reach the 200 DMA in a week or so.

Good luck to all (bears)!

SPX 05-19
SPX 60D
VIX

4 comments:

Bryan Franco said...

It all looks complete. A Picasso. May the ride be epic.

pb said...

Looking Good so far!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Christian Gustafson said...

VIX is just not confirming a major top in all of this. At each pause we had in the tape today, the wind would come out of the VIX and the vol ETFs.

The 1814 SPX low, which a lot of chartistes labelled as "4" in the series, is probably just "A of 4" or something. I think we are setting up for one more bounce off the lower trendline since the October 2013 lows.

If the July 16 major Bradley turn date then marks the end of W5 and our final top, the SPX will be up in the 1950 area.

As we approach the final top, the VIX and volatility ETFs ought to perform like they did at the end of 2013 -- hanging in there even on green market days, diverging, getting bought as a hedge. What we are seeing here is evidence that we still have a ways to go.

The 200DMA SPX is below the lower support trendline. More likely now is a low in this sequence in the mid-1820s into the end of May.

T.Berry said...

1950 is on the route to 2250. look for vix to have a 9-handle during the journey