Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Charts 11-07: Do we top tomorrow?

No, really, do we?

Daily top-calling is not about to become a feature of this blog, but I can't shake this pattern on the DJIA:

DJIA 11/06 megaphone

Here is the corresponding terminal move on the SPX, an ending-diagonal that terminates at 1778 tomorrow:

SPX 11-06

Some big longer-term bearish analysts, like Bob McHugh and Bob Janjuah, see us heading to a final higher high weeks or months from now.  But what if they are wrong?  What if the SPX, having touched the other side of the 2009 rally channel, is done now?

What if the self-awareness of the equity bubble by its participants, brings its end?

What if we print a hot number for GDP in the morning?

How the local count fits into the larger picture:

SPX 11-06 60D

SPX 11-06 6M

The DJIA chart has me wondering, and so does this chart from AlbertaRocks.  In 2000 this peak nailed the equities peak, but there was a lag in 2007.  

What to expect now?  A hard reversal off these levels tomorrow would be a good start.


Trading Sunset said...

...two years to go.

Another two years.

I wish it were otherwise, doesn't look it.

John said...

Another two years.<<

LOL--when government tries to play God, it always ends badly.

See DOW vs. Gold Stocks in 1936-39 for coming debacle. (chart within the link)

Depriv said...

Yeah, tomorrow.

The ECB rate decision muddied the water, so it's possible that we already had the top today, but tomorrow still fits much better for this.

If we can climb back to the range of 1770 today, then we can with a violent ZZ tomorrow, up to 1780 or so.

However, I drowe the bottom line of that ED a bit differently.

christiangustafson said...

It's always fun to see blog traffic bump up here by a few pips on red days.

Them permabearish blogs!

Good luck to all, of you guys, anyway.

Depriv said...

As it seems, that ED worked as it had to.

christiangustafson said...

Can we make a SPX 1740 close?

Go go go!