Monday, November 4, 2013

Charts 11-04: Another ending-diagonal

The move off the 1775 high has not been impulsive to the downside, so it is likely yet-another-wave-4.

If it is part of an ending-diagonal, then it may have a ways left to go, as its channel may take us as low as about 1729 late this week.  This would of course give us the slight W1-W4 overlap we want to see on an ending-diagonal.  The ending-diagonal is important to us because it is a terminal pattern that brings in a change of trend, i.e. down.

From there, a strong push through November opex and into the following week.  McHugh has one of his own "phi mate" turn dates out that way.  IIRC, he nailed a few critical inflection points in the 2007-2008 tape with his proprietary turn dates.

Is this the ending-diagonal we are looking for?

SPX 11-04

12 comments:

Permabear Doomster said...

I agree on the short term targets.

They both look good now.
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Yet..I think the bears are once again falling to the trap of cutting short the up waves.
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Christian Gustafson said...

We will get this right, Doomie.

And we will short when she is good and ready.

Bryan Franco said...

Would love to see 1720 on a closing basis, as that would fulfill my particular criteria of needing yet another 3% + correction followed by a new high.

Christian Gustafson said...

Funny, Bryan, I just made that same calculation, with your model in mind.

Well, if this was A and B of a wave 4, each of them has taken about 2.5 days, which leaves the rest of this week for C. The sideways tape allows us to impulse down now before we head higher again.

The 1798 is a run at 1800, into the 11/20 FOMC release.

Depriv said...

Well... I don't think so. This mood cannot be sustained for long.

My actual primary count is that the impulse upward is not ready yet. Mind the way between 1742 and 1775! That ridiculously straight but wide road might be a slow 'b' of an r-flat. And maybe we are in a C(ED) now. Then there will be a fifth an done.

My secondary version is that the top is in with that 1775.

sooner said...

haven't seen any comments on TF about the latest Black Berry move?

Christian Gustafson said...

All I'd like to know is whether or not the Karl Denninger has any stake left in BBRY.

It's really no longer sporting for us to make fun of him or that doomed company. Both have detonated in public sight.

It's just cruel to pile on at this point.

John said...

http://www.mrci.com/special/wspi36.php

Current market vs 1934 to 1936 market.

http://www.mrci.com/special/wspi99.php

Current market vs 1997 to 1999

http://www.mrci.com/special/wspi07.php

Current market vs. 2005-2007

http://www.mrci.com/special/wdji28.php

Current market compared to 1926-1928

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/bear-market-comparisons-1929-2009/

It’s different this time!! (note: until it ain’t)

Bryan Franco said...

Any new closing all-time high here doesn't count as a setup for a 20% + plunge. Still need 1720s followed by new high - hopefully not much deeper than 1720 (as there is precedent for up to, but not greater than, a 20% correction).

Christian Gustafson said...

Does anyone have an opinion on this chart?

John said...

QE is the new excuse for our current ramp job, is the only thing that comes to mind when looking at that chart. Other than that Mania 3.0 = Mania 2.0.

Bryan Franco said...

yikes.. what i see in that chart, CG, is that spx:vix peaked a good 10 months before the high in spx back in '07.