Thursday, November 7, 2013

Charts 11-07

So far so good, we got our key reversal today ... no gaps left up at the top.

There are plenty of scenarios out there still to take us higher; I poked around among some of the larger ending-diagonals up here lately.

I would prefer of course for the top to be in.  If so, then we can build a larger wave 1 down -- 1 of A down -- that wraps up next Wednesday.

SPX 11-07


Permabear Doomster said...

hmm...I so wish i could believe in that. I'd really like to short this market.

Yet..sub 1700s just don't look viable. 50 day MA at 1710 will be so difficult to break

I just can't see sub 1700s for some months...maybe all the way until late summer/autumn 2014...if we broadly rally into the spring.

huge amount of money sloshing around out there..and it is ALL going to make its way into the equity market.

Christian Gustafson said...

Argh! Definitely retracing past the .618 here has us back looking for one more high, doesn't it?

And the drop we had, while nice, was not enough to trigger Bryan's 3% rule.

So the idea of an ending-diagonal from the 1627 low is still on the table, with a (my) target up around 1798.

I got in a nice scalp on UVXY yesterday, but the entire time, my friend Pieter was commenting that it was not exploding as we would expect to see on a true market top n turn. When UVXY starts putting in 20-30% days, this will help us to call a top.

Are we set for another couple of weeks of low-volume crawl?

Bryan Franco said...

i still think this is a decent setup for a wave 4 down to the 1720s. the tape feels like a smaller fractal of the September/October 2012 consolidation. this is my hope anyway, as it would keep you and me 'in sync'. A new right here would be more flustering to me than trying to find something in my wife's purse.

Bryan Franco said...

c of 4.

Permabear Doomster said...


I ain't pleased with what happened today, but really, are we surprised?

Heavy QE...the mainstream remains insanely deluded, and besides the hourly chart was vulnerable to a bounce anyway.

sp'2000s next spring....yes..that will be one hell of a more comfortable level for me to start throwing $ at index shorts again.

Have a good weekend..

John said...

We had a terrible unenjoyment report in early 2009 that marked max capitulation--could this enjoyment on steroids report mark the other bookend to Mania 3.0?

Even though IWM joined in Friday, it still looks a bit heavy--not a great sign when the generals start acting like GIs.