Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Charts 09-18: Looking for a top

First, here's a neat pic of some moss I took out in the Bogachiel Valley in Olympic National Park; it makes for a great wallpaper.

Olympic moss

Now that we have got that out of the way, let's look at the long-awaited blow-off move that started today.  I count this as the start of a 5th wave move, with an ideal target in the 1751 area.

Here's my local count.

SPX 09-18

SPX 1751 would be an ideal target based on wave equivalence between the huge A and C waves in the entire move up from the March 2009 lows:

SPX 09-18 5Y

A strong thrust into the 1740s tomorrow that gives a viable wave count here and touches the far wall of the channel up from SPX 1627 will have me looking for a top.  Selling into opex will be muted, picking up next week depending on the elections in Germany.  ETFs like SPY will take an initial hit Friday morning when they go ex-dividend.

Overall count of the proposed ABC 5th wave here.  This is part of a very large ending-diagonal from the 1266 lows, where we can count each impulse up as a triplet.

SPX 09-18 60D

Um, the McClellan Oscillator is kinda-sorta overbought tonight.  Just a wee bit.

Good luck out there.  May we soon witness the Return of the Bear!

p.s. Lunatic_Fringe had highlighted several fib extensions at about the SPX 1744 level.  That may be worth watching, too.


Christian Gustafson said...

OMG, I was remiss in not noticing that today, Sept 19, is a Full Moon.

So watch for moonbeams acting on the market today.

I'm sorta-kinda interested in the 1733 SPX level for a possible reversal, too. It's where W1 ~ W5 on the move up from 1628, and also sets up an 8-handles up reversal candle intraday per 2007.

Permabear Doomster said...

Yes...moon madness.

Good moss picture. I am bullish green.

As for the casino..sp'1750s..look an easy target.

The issue..problem I have is that QE full.

Howe we going to fall with that continuing?

Right now..I just can't see it.