Friday, September 20, 2013

Charts 09-20 a.m.: Nope, no top yet

... but I think we have a better idea of a channel here, and it points ahead to the 1752 area again in a few weeks.

The next window, then, for a final top would be SPX 1752 on about October 7th.  This is immediately after the October New Moon (10/5), and immediately before a "major" Bradley turn date, 10/8.

It also has a nice correspondence with 2007.

SPX 09-20 a.m.

This count puts us in a wave 4 that will target wave (iv) of 3, then rally to a final high and rollover mid-channel.

Most of next week should be the usual wave 4 tedium.


eighty6thebs said...

lol. hey denninger...feel good banning the guy that called this? Suck it TF

christiangustafson said...

Hey 86!


eighty6thebs said...

The timing of this couldn't be better as he attempts to launch his paid newsletter focused on picking tech stocks. He did so well on this one which by the way accounted for 25% of his tickers for the last 6 months. The other 75% were focused on politics so I'm not sure what other tech plays he'd include in his newsletter.

BBRY along with his macro bearish outlook on stocks during the recent double in equities qualifies him for an appearance on Cramer but anyone buying his damn newsletter is nuts.

CG and others tried to save what was a nice place for many folks to bring and share ideas but in the end the only ideas KD valued were his own. Hopefully now those left can see the value of those ideas standing on their own without the contributions of CG and many other great posters. In the case of BBRY, he did ban probably the only poster who could see through his job the actual adoption rates of BB10. I don't feel sorry for those he crushed with this pick because most kept blinders on while he stifled dissenting opinions.

Former day 1 founding member and former TF gold donor. -86

ps- thanks CG for continuing to share your views.

Trading Sunset said...

Hmm, I never did register on the ticker board.

I really like Dennigers broader econ-GDP stuff, thats always good.

The bizarre obsession over a stupid smartphone..very odd. I don't get it, I mean, its a phone, with a nice screen, and yet some of the longest postings I ever seen on ANY website were by denniger on BBRY, and how it was so good.

I guess you all noted how he went offline for a day recently, and his intention to make it '2 days..and more'..unless everything becomes rainbows and unicorns in the USA justice/political system.

I think I only traded BBRY once... shorted it (as RIMM), $31 on a Thursday morning, exited the next Friday morning for $27. Have left it alone since.

Bryan Franco said...

If I may, a couple of tweets here:

The sequence of declines leading up to this new high, again, resulted in an eligible top. Also, the number of stocks in the S&P 500 above their longer-term smoothing mechanisms (100, 150, 200 day moving averages) has been falling with the last three highs. A divergence that is now 4 months old. Lastly, with respect to the "taper".. well, they have started tapering. There is a very basic economic law called "diminishing marginal utility of money" .. the reality is, they need to keep increasing the pace of monthly mbs/treasury purchases to have the same effect on financial assets. You don't go back to your drug dealer asking for the same amount of Meth. You need more.

christiangustafson said...

I'll post some charts in a bit, making a case for the top not being in just yet by my read of RSI.

Oct 7, immediately after the October New Moon, would be great.