Monday, May 20, 2013

Charts 05-20: 1672 hit

On Thursday I mentioned that the 1.618 extension for the presumed "wave 3" we have been in since 1581 or so, that this would take us up to 1672.  We made that today.  We'll see tomorrow if we can pull back now, or if it was just another speed bump.

The shape of the move up, including the strange op-ex surge, sure looks like a thin ending-diagonal to me.  If it was, then it should fail and retrace to its starting point, SPX 1648.  We have chart support on the lower bound of the channel at 1648 at about noon Eastern time tomorrow.

U.S. news is light, so I'd expect some bit of international bad news to hit overnight, something really stinky.  If we make it to support and it holds, then tomorrow would be a big V bounce.  If we even manage to close green, market bulls will be euphoric.  This will power us to the top.

SPX 05-20
The lower Bollinger band on the daily VIX chart has come in considerably in the last few weeks.  I'd like to see this set up for a final plummet on the VIX next week where it closes down in the 11s, under the bottom band.  That would set us up for a possible strong BUY signal on volatility.  

VIX 05-20
Maybe they can even squeeze in one more reverse-split of UVXY before we roll over.

I've got a precious hall-pass for a solo overnight this weekend.  If conditions allow, I'm heading out and up into the shit in the North Cascades, near the U.S.-Canada border.  It should make for some fine photos.


Permabear Doomster said...

Always good to see a new post.

I do like the idea of downside to 1650/45, somewhere in that area.

That now seems only feasible Wednesday

Bryan Franco said...

My hope is that we are actually finishing up a wave 3 from the leg that began on April 18th. If we can get a drop of 3% + followed by a new high (wave 5), that would fullfill my particular minimum requirements for an ultimate top that could result in a 20% + decline. Otherwise, I think we have to wait months.

Christian Gustafson said...

Bryan, you sound a bit like McHugh, with his pullback and another blow-off move. I think he wants to see the DJIA above 17K, though. Amazing stuff.