Friday, May 17, 2013

Charts 05-17: op-ex fun

The move up from 1343 has been an uncannily-clean and consistent channel.  Of all of the tape since March 6, 2009, the last six months have been the most impulsive and actually ... well-behaved.

In the current W5 blow-off channel we are in, I think we still need to cross the current channel, to put in a minor 4 and set the stage for the last leg up.  For all of its excitement today ... the shape of things looked corrective, especially with the (b-wave) triangle pattern that ate up the bulk of the session.

Tuesdays have been green for so long because Monday has been good for a surprise and a red daily candle now and then.  So BTFD kicks in the very next day.  I'd like to see something similar happen next week, starting with a stern drop on Monday to SPX 1646.  This would be the last bear trap in this cycle, before we top and the bear traps are actually short-covering rallies off fresh spike lows.

SPX 05-17
5Y

4 comments:

Permabear Doomster said...

Were there no QE, I'd agree with your outlook.
--

However, QE continues, and we sure saw that on Friday.
--

I can only hope at one of the FOMCs this summer, they kill the POMO program.

Otherwise, we just keep going up.

Christian Gustafson said...

If I'm right, PD, then when it all settles out, I'd like to request a guided tour of the British Museum the next time I'm in London, OK?

I ran out of time the last time, and could only gaze longingly at the entrance, like a hungry waif straight out of Dickens.

My thesis is, we sell off despite the POMO. Japan and the eurotrash drive the schedule. POMO keeps us from going no-bid all at once, and gives us a technically-tradable proper bear market. Hopey changey here, sir.

rd said...

Carl Futia had an update on the domed house, I also wonder if his point 23 coincide with your top

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2013/05/above-resistance-still-no-sign-of-top.html



Christian Gustafson said...

Awesome that he has stuck with 3PDH.

Every so often I cock my head to the side to see if we can it that curve.