Thursday, May 16, 2013

Charts 05-16

The current W3 subwave we are in reaches 1.618x W1 at SPX 1672.

SPX 05-16

2 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Stopped out green on some overnight SPY calls. I collared them with sell stops this morning in case the apparent count changed.

1661 could very well have been the end of W3, in which case the pop this morning would be "B" of the wave 4. If we're in 4, it should continue to cross the channel into early next week.

Bryan Franco said...

Christian - I'm all for tops, but 1672 with a 3% + drop for wave 4 would be a necessary condition for 1703 for this particular wave cycle to mark the ultimate top. Could you envision such a scenario? I'm not an experienced wave counter.. but based on my work, if what you have labelled as wave 4 actually occurs, we'll need another cycle of waves. That begs the question, would another cycle of 5 waves invalidate the long term bear thesis? Another Question.. can the giant megaphone even be relied on at this point? Do the monthly legs even subdivide appropriately into 3's ? I don't see it.