I drew up this chart last night, but didn't post it because the seemingly strong pump in the /ES futures was making me wonder about it. But it turned out OK actually, we popped right to the top of the little pink channel and 1560 at the open this morning.
The .618 retrace of the move up from the (wave 4) bottom is 1545. A close there today and maybe a McClellan Oscillator reading of -150 or so would set us up for the final rally. There's kind of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern sorta-kinda there with the 4/17 low, but the pop at the open today tilted the neckline out of whack.
If we keep sliding and close closer to 1540, then that could be the last downdraft in the wave 4, the [v] of c of 4 move. Either way we should then start heading up for another test of the 2000-2007 highs trendline around May FOMC.
Edit: there is a nasty downward channel on the chart that could take us as low as SPX 1526 today. That would leave the bulls with a do-or-die close.