Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Charts 04-23: If the top is in ...

Two things caught my eye late today, prompting a quick bear count for the blog:

1. AAPL's delicious $22+ pop and fade to red after its earnings
2. The fact that we have retraced 72% off the 1536 bottom.  The first bounce in the 2007 cycle retraced 72%.

We have three big days of data ahead: Durables, UE claims, and GDP.  Big misses on the numbers, plus a 400K+ claims figure, could roach the indexes and take us to SPX 1500 by EOW.  After a bottom next week, we would be set for a sharp W2 into the May New Moon.

After that, we test the larger rally channel, the trendline up from 666.

Since we already wrangled with the top of the Jaws of Death megaphone, I'd be happy if we continued down.  The move off the top can count as a legit 5-wave impulse, if that's what we've got here.

SPX 04-23

8 comments:

Permabear Doomster said...

I really like that outlook, especially the post May bounce/rally.

Indeed, the only real issue is whether the market can put in a lower high.

treider_ said...

seems ur double top option is the way to go

Christian Gustafson said...

Jeez, sure looks like it. The Jaws of Death trendline is right above us here at ~1592.

The top on 10/11/2007 saw an intraday reversal, followed by a 30-handle plunge.

Bryan Franco said...

Is a wave 3 allowed to have a failed 5th as one of its sub-waves? Just wondering if this last spurt could be considered 5 of 3?

Bryan Franco said...

Is a wave three allowed to have a failed 5th as one of its subwaves? If so, must the ensuing larger 5th also fail? Just wondering if this last spurt higher could be 5 of 3 from the new year's low?

Christian Gustafson said...

The entire week looks like a decently-shaped 5-wave impulse.

A little RSI peak just now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=r14&c=

UVXY is holding up well through this.

Bryan Franco said...

Any thoughts on the bifurcation that has persisted between the defensives and cyclicals? I hope not too off topic.

Christian Gustafson said...

No idea at all, Bryan!

I mostly care about brightly colored trendlines, fibs, lunar cycles, tea leaves, chicken bones, and the rest.