Friday, April 19, 2013

Charts 04-18: Finishing up wave 4

Oh I really really wanted us to rollover into a iii of 3 waterfall yesterday, but when I could see that it wasn't going to happen, I exited positions to wait and see.

It looks like the larger wave 4 in the move up from 1343 is about in.  I first mentioned it a couple of weeks ago, but the excitement of visiting the top of the Jaws of Death trendline on the SPX, and the delicious drop from those highs, makes us watch for impulsive moves down.

The midline of the channel intersects the 2000-2007 highs trendline again just after the May 1 FOMC.  Is a policy change coming?  A declaration of victory and a timeline for winding down QE?  Or a delayed reaction to this?  The JOD trendline remains at ~1592, so a move up there and failure would be a nice way to end the reflation-attempt rally since 666.

Wave count, the channel, McClellan, VIX, etc all suggesting a bounce soon. 

Wave 4 count

SPX 04-18 6 month

1 comment:

Permabear Doomster said...

The second chart is VERY provoking.

I think we saw the secondary fractional lower high in July 2011.

It spooked me out of three short positions then, and I have never forgotton it.

You have me a little worried with that chart.

Have a good weekend