Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Intraday 04-17: LOL

If we can make it to the 1500 area this week, then we can find an IT bottom at 1480 by EOM April and the next batch of Great News on the Recovery from the May 1 FOMC.

The 2nd half of May would be a fantastic panic bloodbath sell-off atrocity exhibition, with us completing "A" down in early July.

"B" would be the summer rally ... take a breather ... everything is going to be OK ...

"C" down, which corresponds to everything from 1440 south on the 2008 tape, could then kick off in earnest with the German elections in September.

2008 was faster than 2000.  We may be on an even faster pace down for this cycle.

SPX 04-17 a.m.
"A" down?

3 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Actually, hmm, a napkin target of SPX 1290 for my "A" wave is probably not nearly bearish enough. That would only be 307 handles off the top.

The 2007 cycle has a comparable 320 handle move. For us to meet or exceed that would take "A" down into the mid-1200s.

The 1240 area is the .382 retrace of the entire rally since 666. That would be ~356 pts for our "A" wave, about 11% more carnage than the 1st leg down of 2007.

Christian Gustafson said...

So ... instead of 1332, a good target for a mini-crash in late May would be SPX 1285 or so.

That would be lovely.

Permabear Doomster said...

Hello !

I will say your second chart looks rather close to something I am starting to consider.

If have a H/S formation - having hit 1480 late April, then my downside target would be 1400/1380 mid May.

Now, I can just about envisage the sp'1200s..if the market gets really upset.

If you look at the monthly charts, they DO allow downside to the lower bol' which is currently @ sp'1169