Did anyone notice the Bradley model 2014 dates?

At this point we are just waiting for one more touch of the top line of a larger ending-diagonal wedge, likely right after May opex.  Our target on the SPX remains at 1920 ... patience required here, guys.

With a low tide in the morning, I can do the long walk that takes me from Golden Gardens park in north Seattle all the way up to Carkeek Park further north.  The entire loop back home is maybe 4 or 5 miles, a very nice walk.

Mt. Constance (Olympic Range) over Puget Sound

So we're just waiting for that last tag of the top.  It looks like 5/19 or 5/20 ought to do it.

From there, 1650 and even 1560 are targets for a sharp break south.

SPX 05-13

Work continues on one last batch of skinny townhouses around the corner from me, on the site of the old Crown Hill Lutheran Church.

Chip-board townhouses!

Better buy one now ...

so you aren't

priced out forever!

Reviewing the 2008 crash tape again, I noticed something very strange.  I took Manfred Zimmel's 2014 Bradley model cycle turn dates and applied them to the 2008 chart -- see the orange lines.

2008 crash tape with 2014 Bradley cycle turn overlay

Now Bradleys are dodgy astro-market stuff and may not be your cup of tea, that's fine.  However, they have been spot-on with the current tape for a while now, nailing some very important turns.

And for some odd reason, the 2014 Bradleys absolutely nail some key turns from 2008.  We have to be careful not to conclude too much from this, but for now I want to suggest that the order of the downlegs in the upcoming cycle may be reversed.

In 2007, we topped in the fall, and put in a 5-wave stair-step "A" down.  "B" corrected this, and we topped again on Monday, May 19, right after opex.  By the way, there is another Monday, May 19, coming up next week, right after opex.  The truly vicious, destructive cycle began off this May high at 1440 SPX.  The seasonality is such that we are lined up again for another fall crash.

This is how I am suggesting the ABC down to the lower edge of the Jaws of Death megaphone would look, with the crash coming first this time around:

Jaws of Death completion to SPX 560

From a 1920 high, the "E" wave of the megaphone would be about 1.5x the magnitude of the 2007-2009 cycle, which was 910 pts on the SPX.

Of course, any good walk in the north end of Seattle requires a stop at Caffe Fiore on 85th Street.

Caffe Fiore

Charts 01-03: Big week ahead

This weekend the Burke Museum had their annual Archaeology Day; the girls and I were 2nd in the door for this one.  They had a guy demonstrating how to make clovis points and other stone tools out of obsidian, which can be found in our Cascades volcanoes.

Creating stone tools with ... stone tools

We got some pho and hit our usual bookstore, Magus Books, good shop.

Out before sunrise for a long walk on a chilly Sunday morning, here are some boats in the Shilshole Bay Marina.  The tide was high, and the Puget Sound water was very clear.

Shilshole Bay Marina

A statue of Leif Ericson stands guard over the boats.

Leif Ericson

This apartment block is almost finished in Ballard.  It's funny that they had to wrap it around this shitty gas station.  The only good thing that can be said for it is that it appears to use real plywood instead of the usual chipboard garbage.

Market St & 24th Ave

One block north, they have just got the hole in for this beauty.  I'm sure it's needed, yes, of course.

Moar apartments now, moar!

The Olympics were out in the crisp air.

Olympic mountains over Olympic Manor 

It looks like a set of townhouses are replacing the old Crown Hill Lutheran Church on 15th Ave.

Moar townhouses!

Here's the old church last year before it was demolished.

Crown Hill Lutheran Church, R.I.P.

This week is important in the markets because we still do not know if the January 1 Bradley turn date did indeed mark a top and a turn, much less the top.  We need some follow-up and confirmation.  We need some carnage on the indexes before op-ex, to get us down in the 1720s on the SPX before a big bounce.

SPX 01-03

It's still very early, but we need some big red candles soon.