All we need now is a little push, and we'll be in an official Bear (2350 S&P) by the Fed meeting and announcement this Wednesday. That will be a sweet spec bounce, as well as a final leg down to the head & shoulders target.
v of 3 down is, of course, a US .gov shutdown as Donald John Trump confronts the Bolsheviks. May we prevail.
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| S&P 500 hourly |
46 comments:
The proposed W3, at roughly φ x W1, targets 2256 S&P, very very close to the head & shoulders target.
Market psychology will finally shit the bed, but then we will linger in a wave 4 through February opex. That's what wave 4s do.
Keep an eye on the 4 day thing, and the 4 week thing, which often provide great turning points. Black Monday crash of 87 - down 22% in a single day - happened on the 4th day of a break below the 200 day. If tomorrow seals the deal on a breakdown through the neckline, the crash could be over by Thursday...
Christian and Kevin - 2 bears in a pod :)
Kevin, the market has NEVER crashed the week before Christmas - EVERRR!
Could this time be different - sure, but not probable.
circuit breakers. there will never be a 22% daily crash again. : )
santa week boys & girls :)
CG,
It has been 200+ points down from 2800+ since I had this on nov 8th
Before:
https://imageshack.com/a/img924/9075/UKpaj8.png
Current: (as of last friday)
https://imageshack.com/a/img921/598/1U4T2q.png
First wave down was a good start.. Then it did a 180 to almost where we started. That bounce extended further than I thought it would. Maybe that was the int B end.
Later breaking of 2603 low was the first time when this above chart showing 2318 gained some credibility even though naz already broke previously. Note that naz didnt bottom this time around.
Then the recent bounce occurred only to drop back down to around 2600.
That said, there is still a real threat of being again dragged back upto 2762 unless the low gets taken out and heading towards 2460/70.
Ideally we break down from this muck and drift during holidays only to come back in new year and flesh out the remaining empty space on the chart. Maybe jan feb timeframe.
Naz:
https://imageshack.com/a/img922/1481/MIuQJc.png
Dow:
https://imageshack.com/a/img922/9504/TzK29Q.png
Stalin v Bolsheviks--awesome!!!
They really need to play up some China caves in news to drag it back up, like pronto
Did everyone enjoy the /ES test and rejection overnight?
Point of recognition time.
==Kevin, the market has NEVER crashed the week before Christmas - EVERRR!==
Prechter, crashes don't happen, or not happen, based on a calendar event. Crashes happen for one reason only: forced selling. Back in '87 they blamed it on portfolio insurance, though the real reason is big money investors were tricked into buying a ton of stock on leverage because they thought they couldn't lose (due to having so called portfolio insurance back then.) When a major support gets taken out there's a rush for the exit. That creates major losses of the overleveraged, and they get margin calls. You have four days to clear a margin call, which is where the 4 day thing comes into play. Buy the dip, and plunge protection team, comes in when big money is adding and increasing margin, as all they do is keep buying and buyin - hey, the FED has your back, right, can't lose - till the first time it doesn't work. Then we crash. Since no one knows how much margin calls are coming into play as current support gets taken out, then no one can predict when crashes happen. Except, we know what crash set-ups look like, and it looks like the current situation. If today ends down 4%, and tomorrow down 5%, and a rip-roaring rally on Wednesday post FED fades and ends very badly, then odds would be we suffer the big one on Thursday. If T.Berry is right and we can't have a down 20%+ single day event, then we'll likely see Friday finish the crash. If today ends well, hey, then we survive for at least another day.
A wholesome tune to help us through these trying times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=_zWj1HyOonQ
santa spotted,,,,epic rally coming,,,,,,,3, 2, 1,.......
Go Christian GO!
paging mr claus, paging mr claus!
The War on Christmas continues
SP at Nenner's 2555 target, and by mid-December, as promised.
h&s
2600 - (2940 - 2600) = 2260 -- early Jan?
Nenner a beautiful man inside and out. Also a broken clock
The real danger still lurking for bears is that today (or very soon) is pt 24 on 3 Peaks and a Domed House, with #25 still ahead of us.
Kevin my dear brother, I am aware of what causes crashes - this isn't my first rodeo, as we say in Texas :)
The PPT will Not allow a Christmas Crash to occur - I am on the other side of your trade for the next two weeks - a rapid rebound up is in the works after Fed meeting on Wed.
T Berry, Santa just texted me - he will be arriving on Wednesday - be ready to receive him with cookies and milk :)
Uh oh.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPSPX
If yesterday was point #24, then a 83% retrace back to 2872 makes a verrry tradable point #25.
Q4 earnings rolling over would then take equities along for the ride.
The target of the larger head & shoulders top, with a neckline now at 2530 S&P, is 2120.
The close for the NASDAQ yesterday confirms we are in a bear market.
The 2007 pattern seems to be in play. If so, we're looking at sideways to no where this week, followed by another four day hard slide that target SP 2300 (to complete wave 3.) That might provide a larger crash - as wave 3 is wave 3, and there's no rule on how far they go - though the key is to wait for the 4th day of the new slide before buying for a bounce.
A chart to watch: MSFT.
Look at lovely topping process, neckline/support right here, which is also the 200 day moving average. MSFT goes lower, it will likely tank very fast - for 4 days! That's how the market suffers a quick 10% down move to complete wave 3.
Yo Prech, looks like he showed up early-----probably has lots to give this year and wanted to make sure he has enough time. tomorrow will historic
FOR THE RECORD...below is a link to EB's 1 hour chart for SPX...as of this date, EB forecasts a rally into the area of 2940...that is his SHORT TERM FORECAST...print the chart!
https://stockcharts.com/public/1957888/chartbook/636336298
CG, not sure about the 3pdh but I exited all my put spreads going back all the way to early november. I still think low 2300s could be the destination from nov 8th timeframe high of 2800s.l as shown the charts from my earlier post above. Am going to be on the sidelines during holidays.
=== rotrot said...
FOR THE RECORD...below is a link to EB's 1 hour chart for SPX...as of this date, EB forecasts a rally into the area of 2940...that is his SHORT TERM FORECAST...print the chart!
https://stockcharts.com/public/1957888/chartbook/636336298====
Don't forget to update us when he makes changes to that chart.
rotrot said...
https://stockcharts.com/public/1957888
Exceptional Bear | 11 December 2018, 4:27
"1b $SPX - S&P 500 Daily 2" Forecast - Rally to the area of the all-time-high (2940.91) followed by a plunge to the 2000-1900 area
https://stockcharts.com/public/1957888/chartbook/635328009
PRINT THE CHART...NO REVISIONIST HISTORY GOING FORWARD...EB'S FORECAST IS CRYSTAL CLEAR!
December 11, 2018 at 3:05 AM
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
KW claims EB's short term calls help him make money...others know EB's market calls are abysmal...since December 11, EB has been calling for a SHORT TERM rally to the area of 2940...thanks to KW for the assist in demonstrating that EB's market calls are in fact abysmal!
the SPX dropped 145.64 points during the last six trading days (2674.35 high to 2528.71 low)...each day EB reiterated his forecast for a SHORT TERM RALLY to the area of 2940...a miss of 411 SPX points...EB's forecasts are abysmal!
On EX B, you can't look at the big charts and expect to make money. Even - or when - the big one comes, the most money will be made following the swings. This is the chart of his I follow, which, if you can see, made some great trades during this sell-off.
And WHEN he makes adjustments to that chart one should judge the trade prior to that - did it make money? - and then judge the next trade - does it make money after the trade is closed? That's how you judge a call. Not pinning to any one line of prediction - that doesn't agree with your thinking - and saying ah he's wrong when it doesn't pan out. As more technical information comes in, adjustments need to be made.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1957888/chartbook/635052263
Nefarious dark forces have always sought to turn humans into insect like creatures.
"The bee was among the Egyptians the symbol of an obedient people, because, says Horapollo, 'of all insects, the bee alone had a king."
"Looking at the regulated labor of these insects when congregated in their hive, it is not surprising that a beehive should have been deemed an appropriate emblem of systematized industry. "
"Go to the bee, and learn how diligent she is, and what a noble work she produces; whose labour kings and private men use for their health"
Sources: Origin of Pagan Idolatry, Animal Symbolism in Ecclesiastical Architecture
mkts rally ahead of fed. no reason to think the fed, who has been ahead of the curve the last 10 years won't get it right again this time. dow due for a 500+ day
mkt trading with confidence knowing powell will once again push all the right buttons. could see dow +800 or more today.
the bears ain't seen the worst of this bull market. longest and strongest on record
I'm short bonds into the announcement. In size
If no doom, likely next window is January earnings, especially when everyone pulls the cord on stock buybacks.
$FDX the canary.
has anyone been to a mall lately? good luck finding a parking spot. same goes for restaurants. historic holiday sales. economy is still firing on all cylinders.
if it weren't for the tariffs we'd be at new ath's. to think we have 2 more years with cheeto ugh!
amzn shipping is putting the hurt in fdx cg. that's a company specific issue imo not the economy
gobbled some s&p at 2540. plas is to cash out in a week
The video in the link below is one of the most instructive on trading the financial markets there is. Well worth a hour of your time. The guy made 30% on average each year for 30 years, so dismiss him at your peril!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-12-18/druckenmiller-on-economy-stocks-bonds-trump-fed-full-interview-video
From: rotrot
To: TST
Sent: Saturday, October 27, 2018, 12:35:48 PM EDT
Subject: Friday, March 8, 2019...mark it on your calendar...
the bull market that began in 1974 has peaked...Friday, March 8, 2019 is a date you may want to mark on your calendar...
What is the march date high or low
March FOMC is right on a Full Moon -- decent odds it's a low.
We're still not in an official Bear, not on the S&P 500 at least.
My indicators say we are officially in a bear (could bounce though!)
Dow Theory says we are officially in a bear (could bounce though!)
What is saying we are not in a bear?
Note, I will buy stocks when sentiment and price action changes, though clearly we are not there yet on that one.
2940 x .80 = 2352
We're only 15.3% off the top at today's LOD.
Christian, the problem with waiting for the SP to drop 20% from peak is that minor bears end near the down 20% level. What is holding the Sp and Dow above bear market is the defensive side of the tape, like consumer staples. Anything more cyclical, or more risk on, are in confirmed bear markets. The question is does the cyclical leaders breaking to new lows in a bear market indicate the broader stock market is headed there - like canaries in a coalmine - or does one wait for the SP to hit the blessed down 20% before warning we are now in a bear market? I say, follow the leaders, which are canaries in a coalmine, and they are dying like flies...
for those who don't know what a bear market is. from investopedia. can't just say its a bear to fit your thesis lol
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp
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