Positive news, oversold indices, short squeezes ... it is possible the market wants to wait to see Q4 earnings before it finally dies.
It would be a variant of the head & shoulders top off this neckline, target 2083 (election lows). Would only work if we rally today and tomorrow to get over the intraday highs and trap the bears.
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| SPX daily |
25 comments:
Marion Barry smoking crack is of course the disclaimer for this post.
IDGAF about Marion Barry, but I do love Marionberries.
Come on! This insanely overpriced trash isn't going to go up much from here, if at all. There is so much meat on this bone, you can just short this cesspool and wait until early 2020 to cover. No need to really even watch anymore, unless you enjoy seeing it all unfold with 873 fake rallies along the way, and watching clowns like T. Berry ultimately capitulating.......
At the mark 2525
If the bulls are still alive
Can TBerry still survive?
At the mark 2424
Are we standard or poor?
Will it find a floor?
At the point 2323
Oh F meeeee
Sold all my longs
Nothing looking strong
There is a similar setup on the /ES futures, even with tonight's new low, a channel similar to the SPX, allowing for a head and shoulders top, still needs a right shoulder.
Target is the same as well, ~2815 into earns.
Huh. That 1-2 count is quite awful. It can be a correction (and then it is ~ done) or a new trend (then it is in the middle of the third wave already, not at the end of the second), but not that way as can be seen on that picture...
http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20181220v00pncqtb.png
The bullish version is still lingering around.
12/31 week is more likely a low, per Martin A. Panic week next week - happy Christmas! Ultimate low in Jan/Feb. Headed to new highs so long as Dow 21.6K holds. Next target 22.4K.
Nenner just out to say VIX cycle high is around 12/25, though needs to close above 26.5 to hit higher price targets.
My own take: a big down day - say down 4% - completes the third wave in the 2007 pattern, though that brings into play the 1987/1929 pattern, which adds the 15%-22% big one after that to complete that third wave.
What will give us a bounce to prevent that? The FED reversing course a day after they told the markets to FO? China about to announce a trade deal? They just told their businesses to raise cash levels and reduce risk. Sure, maybe the dumb money sells stocks off the market early today and big money finally starts to buy (though the opposite has been happening - why will they change their stance now?)
Watching MSFT and it's fight with the neckline/support of its 200 day near the 101 level. Note what happened to Apple when it broke down. How can the markets survive without a much deeper meltdown if MSFT also breaks down?
"Ultimate low in Jan/Feb. Headed to new highs" That's my current forecast. Bottom sometime in the first quarter 2200-2300, bullish for the rest of 2019 and on to new highs.
s&p came within 2% of hitting my 2018 target (3000). next year's target is only 3250. no change in longer term (2-3 years) target of 4,000.
after nearly quadrupling over the past 10 years this bull is taking a much needed breather before the next leg up. 2019 should be an amazing years for the bulls.
what happened to ol' martin's year end rally? second to none! lol
Kevin Wilde said...
Martin Armstrong just out with a private blog post. Expects the consolidation pattern to continue into June (which I take as a June low resulting in a end of year rally.)
May 2, 2018 at 2:30 PM
T.Berry, the markets are fluid, thus it is critical to follow such guru's shorter term update. And, if you read what I wrote, I said it was my interpretation of what he wrote. He has had tons of updates since then. Long term followers of Martin know that break of daily, weekly, and monthly levels are what matters from a trading perspective. Holding support is bullish. Breaking it is bearish. Such holding and breaking brings other targets into play. THAT is what is useful from a trading perspective.
Please note I'm up 40% this year, to go along with the 66% I made last year. Fine with me if you don't want to listen to the people that help me make such returns. I myself will continue following what works, and will use my returns to offer judgement.
Let me explain the difference between Nenner and Armstrong, as one of them is about to be dead wrong, and I like them both.
Nenner believes the big one has begun, telling investors to get out the market in late 2017 and early 2018. He believes the Dow is headed for Dow 5000 by 2021ish. He does believe we hit some kind of tradeable low around here, though the rally into January - unlikely to make new highs - will be last chance to get out before the meat of the bear lands.
Armstrong, believes the financial world collapsing will bring money into US stocks, resulting - eventually - in a blow off rally he terms phase transition into a Dow 32,000, or even Dow 40,000 peak. Note the financial collapse part, as that fits Nenner's view, only the difference money flow patterns. All year, Armstrong has said the Dow is not yet ready for prime time on that blow off - thus consolidation continues - though he also does not see a big crash on the horizon (till after the blow off.) However, he repeatedly warns that we may see a sling shot down to get everyone prepared for the bear before we rocket to new highs.
So I would say for both Nenner and Armstrong 2018 has been near spot on, though what happens next is the key.
The big question right here is where the expected bounce happens. Around here like Christian suggests in his latest chart, or after another 5% drop (2007 pattern,) or 20% lower (1929 pattern.) Then everyone gets the relieve rally to start 2019 and everyone gets to claim victory.
Watch that MSFT chart, just saying...
Muh Santa rally.
You totally called it T. Berry.
almost as good as your summer bear hugh lol
nice to see you calling for new highs next year heh heh heh
Being a bit late calling a bear market, is a lot better than being a bull who lost money in 2018.
BPSPX levels not seen since 15/16.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPSPX
no losses here hugh. long termer and as i've repeatedly proved, win 100% of the time. the stock market always comes back 100% of the time. even a perma-bear like you is calling for new all time highs next year. lol.
impressive that perma's make money in such strong bull markets as the one we've been in for 10 years.
if by chance we do enter a bear market, it'll be over in 12-15 months which is the average time of a bear market. time to load up! : )
"gobbled some s&p at 2540. plan is to cash out in a week" < You left this comment yesterday T. Berry. How is that trade working out so far?
This isnt just some short-lived needed correction where the markets jolly on up next year. The only way we see new highs within the next couple years is if a newer and larger quantitative easing program is announced. The Bulls can feel good and pat themselves on the back seeing these new highs, all the while paying triple on their utility bills.
not so good hugh. but at least i post real time trades so my results are real. not after a big run up or sell off . anyone can make 60% returns on the internet---haha fake news. lol.
quite pleased with my long term gains since 2011.
T.Berry, all my trades and performance is available in my newsletter - alphaking.com
I prefer to talk about where the markets are going next - always.
The funny thing is, if I was you - someone who has decided to stay invested long, always, thus never have to adjust my positions - I wouldn't be on the internet talking financial stuff, nor watching financial TV. I would avoid all chatter of financial stuff like the plague. I would have made my decision, thus why worry about it?
Now what I do - trade trends, adjusting leverage and exposure based on risk - involves buying when the crap is hitting, and selling when everyone is singing kumbaya my Lord. Let me tell you, that is emotional, hard, often frightening. Thus I have to suffer the stupidity of financial TV, and the ego crap said on the internet by people who probably rarely trade. I suffer all that because people like Ex B, Nenner, Ex B, Dent, McHugh, Christian, etc - as imperfect as they are - help me when it comes time to pulling the trigger. I want to know all the angles, what other traders are thinking and expecting.
So, please, I ask everyone to chill and direct the discussion to what happens next. I, nor anyone else, needs to know what happened today, yesterday, last week, or 10 years ago. Not unless it helps me pull the trigger on the next trade.
Right now people like me are deciding whether to take profits on shorts, or hold for a potential crash.
For those asking what comes next: MSFT closed off its lows, though still took a big step down the breakdown path.
“The Bulls can feel good and pat themselves on the back seeing these new highs, all the while paying triple on their utility bills.”
Quote of the day. And don’t forget the property tax raise to support the local cops retirement at 51, bad back u know!
I don’t see Armstrongs prediction of all that worldwide hot money making a blowoff top in the only game in town, the Dow.
Maybe they’ve had enough of the shitshow and will park it somewhere else.
And the only person to call Shitcoin was Max Keiser haha!
John here predicts a slight bump up next trading sesh. Freebie .
ES 2641 on cards before bear mauling returns and another round of humble pie from ms mkt.
https://twitter.com/Lee_Adler/status/1076044323941216257
"It's already a bear market. But Wall Street keeps investors' heads stuck up its ass until it's down 20% to tell them so. It was a bear market on October 3. Terrible shame. You can thank the International Council of Uniform Market Standards (ICUMS) for enforcing the 20% rule."
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