Sunday, December 2, 2018

Competing counts

We're at one of those junctures where we have plausible setups for both bullish and bearish outcomes, on different scales.

can't beat the Chow Yun-fat

The reason is the impulse wave the S&P 500 has drawn since the 2630 low around Thanksgiving (Full Moon).  Is it the c-wave of a long-in-tooth wave 2 up?  Or is it the initial leg of a larger five-wave structure to new all-time highs by EOY? 

Northy thinks the Santa Rally hypothesis is very plausible here and very dangerous (to bears).  The next two days of this week may clarify things: IMO bearish if the market runs higher, and bullish into Christmas if she pulls back sharply.

With POTUS 41 passing, Powell's testimony Wednesday now falls on a day with closed markets.  This adds to the uncertainty.

S&P 500 hourly