$IRX is holding above 225 bps, and may increase in a bounce here. I maintain that a surprise hike on the non-press-conferenced November FOMC (and New Moon) may tip the apple cart into Thanksgiving (2320 - 2350 SPX?).
 |
| S&P 500 hourly |
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Save us, Full Moon!
If wave 1 is done, we have Durables and GDP late this week, could send us back up sharply for A of 2. Lots more data next week, employment and the rest.
$IRX is holding above 225 bps, and may increase in a bounce here. I maintain that a surprise hike on the non-press-conferenced November FOMC (and New Moon) may tip the apple cart into Thanksgiving (2320 - 2350 SPX?).
$IRX is holding above 225 bps, and may increase in a bounce here. I maintain that a surprise hike on the non-press-conferenced November FOMC (and New Moon) may tip the apple cart into Thanksgiving (2320 - 2350 SPX?).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
28 comments:
With $SPX, you can even count the W1 down from the 9/21 high instead of the 10/3 one; it makes a nice channel.
Just noticed that the November FOMC meeting finishes on a Thursday, 11/8, instead of the usual Wednesday.
The New Moon is on 11/7, the day after the midterm election.
If this rolls us over into the W3 down, it suggests that the Donald John Trump survives with at least one chunk of Congress intact, preferably both. Mueller and Rosenstein should be out the next day, and the Trump train continues.
But this also means that unstable, insolvent China will be pushed over the edge, taking the ROW along for the ride.
A Fed hike in November would be nice, but is not required here for the high.
The sheep are shaking pretty good now. This latest chart seems plausible to me. I was listening to Bill Gunderson a week or so ago, and he was talking up AMD. LOL! NEVER buy individual stocks based on the recommendation of a radio guy. Actually just never buy individual stocks.
I'm sure we'll be seeing surveillance footage of the individual who hand delivered these suspicious packages soon. Right?
Hugh, it's Chicago Politics 101 when you throw a brick through the front window of your own alderman's office.
Are the Dems intentionally throwing this election? The latest "caravan" is a suicidal move for them, and the faked pipe-bomb events are truly pathetic.
Attila posted the long-long-term chart of SPX, which deserves some careful thought soon, with respect to what kind of Bear market is possible from here out.
I have 4 day rally for wave A (10/30,) two days modest retrace for B (11/2,) and one final 4 day rally for wave C to complete 2 (11/8.) Today being day 1, assuming we go out near the highs by the close. My plan is to exit longs 10/30, and go all-in short by 11/8.
STC SPY calls for a double. Don't want to hold these in case of VIX collapse.
Fair warning that the 50% retrace on the decline is only 2795 now, after yesterday's efforts. We might not see 2800 again, or could die while trying to take it.
/me supposing that A of 2 up is in now, waiting for B to eat up time and VIX.
This retrace seems as weak as the last.
No. We have Full Moon!
$AMZN entered a Bear in AH trades today.
"NOT A FORECAST...technical indicators have not reached extreme levels...the down trend could continue into the November 5 time frame before a meaningful rally..."
rotrot | October 24, 2018 at 3:49 PM
Martin Armstrong must be reading my posts...
UVXY up over 10% in premarket.
Maybe we're going to get this bear market over with fast. 2400 will be here quick at this rate.
Where did T. Berry go?
What did he do? Did he say he was margined-long over 2900?
Maybe he'll update us on how that worked out for him.
Armstrong private blog post this morning: not expecting weekly bearish numbers to be breached on a closing basis, though they are: Dow 24,965, Sp 2677, NAZ 7172. We enter crash mode is Dow closes below 24,579, NAZ 7085.
I reversed the last of my TVIX for SVXY at the open today, looking for an ABC rally near SP2835. Markets are trying to flush out my positions, so you'll know when the bottom is in...when I scream uncle.
If we lose 2630 we'll likely lose 2600 before the close. Me thinks the "suspicious package" people want to create maximum chaos.
.618 retrace from 2628 low (so far today) is 2820.
That's also a kissback of the channel defined by the trendline from the 1810 lows through the 2553 lows.
New Moon still scheduled for the day after the election. A Trump victory means full green-light to do all the things.
Lower still
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPSPX
You sure? RSI divergence on that last low.
You know they can't leave the market like this over the weekend. And that trendline ...
2729 close today?
We had a positive divergence on Wednesday. I agree that anyone with the stones to gone long here will probably be rewarded in the short term.
At least it wasn't a white dude.
Did you guys see that INSANE stick save in the final minute of the session?
It closed us over a bearish descending trendline, and arguably from a Monday-morning market crash.
Technicals are real!
Is it safe to come out from behind my couch yet?
I stand corrected. Apparently he is "white." I mean, he looks white to me. *cough*
https://mugshots.com/US-Counties/Florida/Broward-County-FL/Cesar-Sayoc.74096359.html
have an indicator that identifies bottoms on S&P 500…today it was at it’s max…a stock market bounce on Monday?
Post a Comment