Saturday, October 27, 2018

Rally time

The .618 retrace of the entire decline also happens to be the lower edge of the old rally channel from 1810 through 2553 on the S&P 500.



We should visit it one last time before the bottom falls out again.  The short-trade into Thanksgiving should be legendary.

S&P 500 daily

All of this was made possible by the stick-save in the final minute of session trading on Friday.  Did you notice it?

Saved!  no crash Monday

27 comments:

christiangustafson said...

Houses aren't selling here in Seattle, WA, and $AMZN common is now in a bear.

This is how RRE completely DIES overnight. Send in those keys, bag-holders.

Kevin said...

If we see what you have laid out in the charts I will be backing up the truck to load up on the short side. Unfortunately, everyone and their mother wants that pattern to happen so they can sell. We need some good news to trick folks into believing the bottom is in. THAT would make me happy.

christiangustafson said...

Kevin, if I understand it correctly, the goal of a wave 2 is that it should look sharp and impulsive enough to keep longs in the game, thinking we'll be back at new highs before long.

At the moment, all the long money above 2900 is stranded, either already out with a loss, or looking for a reasonable exit.

Employment data this week, and corps will be back buying stock with debt again.

~18 TDs down, ~9 TDs back up in wave 2, then it's decision time.

christiangustafson said...

Also, please watch this Black Pigeon Speaks.

I tell you, the Donald John Trump understands all of this. He knows where we are headed. Andy Jackson portrait behind his desk for a reason.

christiangustafson said...

Greets to Crystal Ball Forum peeps showing up in my traffic logs.

Anonymous said...

Trumps criticism of the Fed is nothing but cover. What he knows is that we're headed into a bear market, and the Fed will need to intervene if it starts getting out of hand. The relationship between the Fed and this POTUS is no less cozy than the last. I hope you're right and I'm wrong. We'll know soon enough.

Anonymous said...

Still looking for a bounce?

christiangustafson said...

Of course.

Rogue B wave today. B of 2 for now.

Anonymous said...

Are we going to see a bounce here first?

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPSPX

Randall Beehomes said...

Too far down too fast

lgp said...

We really need to end the Fed, they're responsible for all of this instability. Ron Paul had it right all along. Because of that, this is a generational chance to stock up on defensive companies like Hormel Foods Corporation, (NYSE:HRL) at compelling prices.

christiangustafson said...

First let's get to 1360 on the S&P. Then let me convert profits to actual money and you can end the Fed.

The dive from 2706 high (LOL, right after I dumped my SPY calls) back to 2604 was in 3 waves. If it doesn't make a lower-low, we have a candidate for an expanded flat, i.e. it was B down of 2 up.

C of 2 up can still retest the rally channel @2820 next week.

Anonymous said...

"Because of that, this is a generational chance to stock up on defensive companies like Hormel Foods Corporation" There are also consumer staple ETF's/funds that are packed with "boring" stocks that Wall Street loves to hate. Check out VDC.

Randall Beehomes said...

An End to Anchor babies that Trump is signing should be worth 50 Spoos Easy to the Upside.

Anonymous said...

Another dead cat.

Randall Beehomes said...

Today is not a dead cat. We have legs. Just watch. Up the rest of the week

christiangustafson said...

Hugh's gone full nihilist. Even the Nazis had an ethos.

I think we'll scrape our way back up to the obvious overhead channel resistance, poke a probe candle through, and keep going.

Anonymous said...

Gone nihilist? I've BEEN a nihilist! Even Nietzsche couldn't save me. I'm the one who told you about Mr. Mean Spirited, and if I remember right used to post here under the name Reverend Nihilism.

christiangustafson said...

Hugh, here are a couple of good pieces on the China mess.

Confirmed nihilist Bicycle sent them over the transom.

Randall Beehomes said...

Total vindication

christiangustafson said...

Squeeeeeeze as we break over the OR for this (presumed) 5th wave down.

Ideally we gap-up open at 2722 on squeezed shorts, and sell off all day as the Fed drains the balance-sheet swamp.

We could sell off all the way back to 2660 and still retest the line we just broke, as support. That low would then be a superb long entry. Plus, tomorrow is an opex ...

Randall Beehomes said...

Yes of course. This

Anonymous said...

Nihilism is a perfectly rational response to this clown world. I've long been a critic of our increasingly cozy relationship with China.

Randall Beehomes said...

FB cuckerberg shit the bed. We need 2450

Anonymous said...

"The new social media site I’m working on will run completely independent of hosting companies, ad networks and payment providers. It’s decentralized, by the people for the people. Volunteer moderators will work together to keep it free of scams and crimes. Free speech guaranteed." - Kim Dotcom

I'm skeptical.

christiangustafson said...

Shortwave radio the future.

Anonymous said...

Back to the Bill Cooper days!