Thursday, June 21, 2018

W4 is in -- minor W5 up to go

It looks like W4 from the proposed ending-diagonal count completed at 2744 SPX today.  It doesn't look like we'll make it all the way down to the .382 at 2715. 



It retraced right to the .236 fib of the larger W3, and completed a very nice c of 4 impulse today.  Now there is a nice fib extension upward -- the 1.618 extension of this retrace -- pointing to the 2820 level right into the July 4 holiday.  /ES futures looking good now this evening.


SPX 06-21 ending-diagonal count

When this breaks down, we have channel support at 2430 or so at EOM July, followed by the August 1 FOMC (no hike) and a decent bounce.  The logical target of that bounce would be a retest and hard fail to retake the 200 DMA from underneath.

SPX path to 1810

The actual rate hike at the 9/26 meeting gives us the last leg down to firm support at 1810.  Then we can rally through Christmas, all the way to the mid-January Bradley turn date, before the real credit crisis makes landfall.

28 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

1810 is enough to ask of the markets this fall.

We'll be in a world of hurt in 2019.

Kevin Wilde said...

Martin A was out yesterday with an interesting private blog post on the Dow Industrials.

We have a directional change next week, with the next one after that first and second weeks of August. In between those directional changes, we have a panic cycle week 7/18, and super high volatility 7/23 week.

So looks like a sell-off into July leading to panic of sorts, as a prelude to a rebound starting early to mid-August.

Major level to watch for Dow is 24,386, which we bounced off of yesterday. 22,415 and then 21,600, are where damage gets serious.

In short, he said to expect consolidation to continue, and we have to wait till we come out of the summer for that to end.

Hugh Jazole said...

There go the transports.

Kevin Wilde said...

There goes the semis, and financials, which historically have been the leader canaries (with the trannies of course.)

Hugh Jazole said...

How bout dat SOX!?

Christian Gustafson said...

This morning finally finish up a larger wave 4, to the .382 area retrace?

T.Berry said...

started nibbling for an earnings flipper. still have plenty of margin power left. 2 weeks till q2 earnings start rolling in.

Kevin Wilde said...

I'd wait 4 days with indexes below 200 day moving average before buying, to avoid the crash scenario. Dow looks on track to start that count today, so buy close Thursday (unless SP moves below 200 day, then wait for that to close 4 days below - unless NAZ is below the 200 day by then, in which case one waits 4 days below 200)

I personally think we sell-off into the fall - so says cycles, anyway

Hugh Jazole said...

Copper under 3. Womp womp!

Christian Gustafson said...

We smacked the 100 DMA and the lower 2SD BB. Can we finish this up now, please?

I've heard the womp womp meme lately.

T.Berry said...

well i'd like to have bought more but i jumped in when we hit 2707 instead of waiting till 2700 which was my target. i didn't buy a full load but if we drop again tomorrow i'll probably load up.

one thing i've learned over the past 7 years is this bull doesn't stay down for long nor does it ignore great earnings which we've seen over that time. q2's will be no different and the outlook should continue to remain strong. only wish i'd have been buying on margin leading up to earnings years ago lol.

feeling pretty good about today's trade

Hugh Jazole said...

Womp womp has been going around since this. LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vrt7q6QKF5o

Kevin Wilde said...


Martin was out with a private blog post yesterday talking about a very interesting big picture view.

He called the January high, and now he's looking for signs it was the high for the year, and high for the next 3 years.

Weekly bearish is Dow 24,100. If that goes, we test the monthly level (he doesn't say it this time, though I believe that is at 22K.

If that gets taken out, then we extend the consolidation (selling) into 2020. However, if that happens, we are looking at an incredible explosive rally into 2025/26.

This is all about currency reset (which probably means the EURO.)

Weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly closes are very important to Martin's work, along with his cycles. This Friday closes this week, month, and quarter, so a biggie in showing where the markets are going next.

T.Berry said...

we'll see dow jones 40k before 25/26. again, i believe we overshoot it and go close to 50k. by then i'll be long gone : )


think we have seen standard dip before earnings yesterday. usually they last a couple days but when there is still a ton of cash coming into the markets you gotta be quick. yesterdays margin buy is already up almost 3% in a day : )

Hugh Jazole said...

Don't be fooled, we're headed lower.

rotrot said...

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=547276048038789798&postID=3551438038230391733

if you are not tracking the XLF weekly and monthly charts you may regret it...opinions are BS...the charts are speaking...ominous and a BIG WOW!

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

when you stop saying that hugh i'll get worried : )

most popular phrase since 2012 lol

Hugh Jazole said...

BTC bout to lose 6000.

Hugh Jazole said...

OMG.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$TRIN

T.Berry said...

there goes the s&p. lol


mondays margin buy up a tidy 4.2% . time to ring the register---don't wanna get greedy plus i think we'll get another quick pullback before q2 earnings heat up the week of july 9th . calling the earnings trade my geico trade---so easy a caveman can do it lol. the fact we're in the strongest bull in history does make it a bit easy.

womp womp! : )

4 day s&p selloffs are rare

T.Berry said...

lol hugh. 52 week low is .01. there is still plenty of room on the downside :)

earnings in 6 trading days, don't get caught short lol

Hugh Jazole said...

"The only thing that looking at the bright side will do for you is to leave you blind. Rose-colored glasses are like shades on a sightless man. Optimism keeps you from seeing the truth."

Mr. Mean Spirited

Hugh Jazole said...

Is SOX about to lose 1300? Ooga booga!

Christian Gustafson said...

I would not be surprised to see us go +60 on the S&P tomorrow. Really.

Kevin Wilde said...

Or down 60 SP points to rip er open...

Christian Gustafson said...

Yeah, that's the "alt". ;)

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.