It retraced right to the .236 fib of the larger W3, and completed a very nice c of 4 impulse today. Now there is a nice fib extension upward -- the 1.618 extension of this retrace -- pointing to the 2820 level right into the July 4 holiday. /ES futures looking good now this evening.
|SPX 06-21 ending-diagonal count|
When this breaks down, we have channel support at 2430 or so at EOM July, followed by the August 1 FOMC (no hike) and a decent bounce. The logical target of that bounce would be a retest and hard fail to retake the 200 DMA from underneath.
|SPX path to 1810|
The actual rate hike at the 9/26 meeting gives us the last leg down to firm support at 1810. Then we can rally through Christmas, all the way to the mid-January Bradley turn date, before the real credit crisis makes landfall.