Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Crunch-time for the Ending-Diagonal

Need a big finish here with GDP, EOQ2, and the holiday break next week.



2823 on the S&P 500 mid-Tuesday would complete the E-D and the bounce since 2009.  IMO the ending-diagonal count still wants a dramatic C of 5.


SPX ending-diagonal

24 comments:

T.Berry said...

nibbling in pm

Hugh Jazole said...

Pay no attention to the transports.

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

another winning margin trade in pm today. still in it from this am but will flip out probably monday or tuesday. so far 3 for 3 trading on margin. walking the walk bae bae LOL

T.Berry said...
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Hugh Jazole said...

Per Caldero - "Should the triangle scenario continue to unfold, a likely low would occur in the low – mid 2600’s." Wow, just wow.

Kevin Wilde said...

For the bears in the room: A free teaser blub from McHugh

China's Shanghai Composite Index is crashing, down 20% so far in 2018. Brazil's Bovespa Index is crashing, down 20% so far in 2018. The Hong Kong Hang Seng has plunged 12.06% so far in 2018, after dropping another 1.31 percent this past week. The Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Index has plunged 14.77% so far in 2018. All four stock markets hit lows this past week.

Germany's DAX is completing one of the most reliable and Bearish stock market patterns in technical analysis, a Rising Bearish Wedge from 2002. The DAX had a bad week, down 2.18%, very close to the bottom boundary of this Wedge pattern. A downside break below that boundary line would suggest the start of the coming plunge is imminent. This pattern is lining up to finish in 2018, with a massive decline to follow - a coming crash.

France's CAC stock Index is also completing a huge Rising Bearish Wedge. A powerful decline will follow. Japan’s Nikkei stock index has completed a five wave move to complete an 8-year rally. Tops occur after five wave rallies. A powerful decline will soon begin.

T.Berry said...

counted maybe 8 reasons why being in us stocks is the place to be. throw in btc to make it nine lol

Kevin Wilde said...

Markets are linked, with negative divergence at major turning points a "tell." That's my take on emerging markets, Europe, trannies, semis, financials heading south. Blue chip momo darlings are the last to get the memo, then play catch up in a hurry.

T.Berry said...

trannies up 11% in last +12 months and semi's +25%. us market remains the place to be given the strength and outlook of the us economy. probably why us stocks very seldom even go down 10% (once every 4 years since 1950).

q2 earnings next week. still in margin position from thursday (+1.7% so far)

Kevin Wilde said...

And stocks fall 80-90% after prolonged bull runs. Tis always about what comes next.

T.Berry said...

when was the last time the stock market fell 80-90%? been hearing that since 2012. lol. bear market last on average 18 months.


fact: markets ALWAYS 100% of the time

T.Berry said...

today we saw what happens to undervalued markets. they don't stay down long. more foreign money funneling into us stocks maybe?

T.Berry said...

thursdays position now up 3.01% based on after hours price. 8+ years of money market returns in 48 hours lol

T.Berry said...

cashed out of thursday's position trade in premarket. 4.5% return. hoping to get one last dip (maybe thurs or fri) before earnings season kicks off next week.

loving this margin thing said the caveman lol -- 3 for 3 so far

T.Berry said...

looking like more foreign money pouring into us markets this am. let the em's crash, the us is the most efficient, transparent and safest place for them to put their money. just another factoid. lol

T.Berry said...

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Business’ number one problem is finding qualified workers. At the current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to get much worse. These labor shortages will only intensify across all industries and company sizes.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/private-payrolls-grow-by-177k-in-june-vs-190k-estimate.html


we may be in one of if not, greatest economic expansions in history. thus the stock market will continue to offer value for those investing for the long haul. this secular bull still has a long way to go (think dow jones 40,000).



looking forward to a solid second half of '18 for the stock market.


T.Berry said...

Most American businesses grow faster in June, ISM services gauge shows

MarketWatch MarketWatch•July 5, 2018

ISM services index climbs to 59.1% in June from 58.6%The U.S. economy is bringing smiles to the faces of lots of Americans. The numbers: Most American companies saw a pickup in business in June, reflecting a surge in growth in the spring that pushed the U.S. economy to fresh heights.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/de573d19-5650-3dde-b40a-e96d6c80c444/most-american-businesses-grow.html

T.Berry said...

didn't realize the fed minutes were coming out today or would have never sold tuesday. stocks are always up on fed days.

powell doing a good job but he's certainly no bernanke or yellen. still in 5 months since he took over the s&p is up 3.5%.

pay no attention to the fed LOL


T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

pay no attention to the nasdaq and russell approaching yet another round of new all time record highs lol


appears more em money pouring into us stocks today.


if this keeps up that summer bear will have to wait till next year LOL sorry hugh : )

T.Berry said...

isnt mchugh the perma who called for the jaws of death crash about 4 years ago then again about a year later? be careful of free advice lol

rotrot said...


"Reuters and Bloomberg Have It Wrong. The Fed “Bloodletting” Is Still Right On Track…" - Lee Adler | July 6, 2018
https://suremoneyinvestor.com/2018/07/reuters-and-bloomberg-have-it-wrong-the-fed-bloodletting-is-still-right-on-track/

rotrot said...


"Adler Does A Rant For The Ages- Several Actually" - Lee Adler | July 6, 2018
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2018/07/adler-does-a-rant-for-the-ages-several-actually/