Saturday, February 24, 2018

No! the bear case is hardly finished

Do not forget that the job of a wave 2 is to fool you into believing that the previous direction of the market is still viable.



But we still have a perfectly good 5-wave impulse off the 2872 high on the S&P 500, and, IMO, a decent wave 2 count as well.  Spike A from the low, a brief .236 retrace in B, and the long C of 2 in 5 waves whose aim is to fool us into expecting new highs.

S&P 15 min wave 2 count

The market has ignored the Anbang and HNA stories for the moment ... basically that the entire narrative of China saving the world with its growth is exposed as a complete fraud.  It turns out instead that China is just an extreme example of uncontrolled credit expansion and capital consumption, which is now on the verge of imploding into a deflationary black hole.

So the bear case eagerly awaits fresh news from the Far East on Sunday night.  If this was indeed a "wave 2" retrace, then it has now achieved its goal of flushing out the shorts, and the markets can collapse again with astonishing speed.  It is a long wave 2 precisely because it is important, we are determining right now whether the great Bear market is finally here.

SPX at Brexit lows into March FOMC



85 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

So a dive to 2120 on the spoos this week would confirm the turn and the Bear market.

It would also nuke XIV and SVXY again, the latter probably for good.

Christian Gustafson said...

Kevin --

Are you still interested in the 2762 level for this retrace? I'm looking at another scenario/count that would see us pop and drop from that high early Monday.

It moves the needle enough to turn the month of May into a real disaster.

Doug said...

Wow Christian, that's an extremely bold call. Such a scenario would be very rare as I'm sure you know. I don't pretend to be a technical analyst, but I'm just trying to wrap my mind around your prediction. Did the decline in year 2000 unfold so quickly?? Late in 2008, things fell apart very rapidly it's true. (So, the trend is toward more rapid, sudden and increasingly worsen total declines, so it does lend some credence to a very bearish scenario that you are painting.) So, a 60% decline is probably realistic. It would be the fastest bear market ever. And yeah, it would come after a parabolic blow-off top which concluded on Jan 29th concluding the greatest bubble of all time.

Being the non-technician, I've thought for some months that the market feels like 1987. But you're predicting much worse than 1987.

China's bankruptcies are worrisome, and China is an unbelievable house of cards, but their government is hyper-inventionalist. They have and will take on bankruptcy risks onto the nation's finances (bail outs). Yeah, things may spiral out of control for even their hyperactive govt, but I'm thinking that that would just lead to increased pressure on the Chinese to devalue the yuan --perhaps suddenly but it probably won't be next week (famous last words). A Chinese devaluation will certainly lead to a another waterfall event in world's equity markets.

Thanks for indulging me as I try to get a grip on what real world events could cause such huge damage to the equities markets in such a short period of time. I'm following you and we'll see what happens. Thanks! Doug

Bryan Franco said...

Doug. With your oil and gas experience, what do you make of the long-neglected Gulf drilling companies from an investment perspective?

Hugh Jazole said...

Doug, I noticed you had a recent post about the savings rate. That is one of my favorite indicators, it can lag a few years, as we saw in the mid 2000's, but a savings rate this low leads to recession 100% of the time.

Kevin Wilde said...

If tomorrow is a big Debbie downer then I think Christian's patterning is a very real possibility, though not it can fall so fast in one week, given that - when the top is finally does come - it will take about 4 day drop to get from the 50 day to the 200 day, and need 4 more days - or 4 more weeks - of closes below the 200 day to mark the end of wave 4 of some kind. So even if tomorrow is a big down day to reverse all of Friday's gains, we would be in position to retest the lows by Friday, and crash (of some sort) the week after.

More like:

Scenario #1, the SP rallies for 3 more days above the 50 day, which would set-up the pattern perfectly to 1987 pre-crash.

Scenario #2, we retest the lows at the 200 day by Friday, then we rally back to 50 day, which would set-up the pattern perfectly to the 2007 pre-crash top.

Hugh Jazole said...

LOL!

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-informs-13k-affected-customers-of-imminent-data-handover-to-irs

Doug said...

Bryan Franco, We're facing a financial Armageddon at some point, probably soon, so I think it is pretty speculative to hold ANY common stock at this time I'll post something very comprehensive later today (Sunday 25th Feb) on my blogsite to explain why. If (or when) I'm right, it will be treasury bonds that will see a big rally as the government will almost certainly reduce fed funds to zero again. I see the stock mkt ultimately dropping 60% OR MORE to complete the inevitable down cycle.

More specifically, we live in a time that the average (non-elite) consumer is so tapped-out, so burdened by debt, inflation and face such poor income prospects that most can no longer afford oil products at anywhere near prices that producers require to produce it. $50 or $60 oil is too high--not low enough to spur our economy out of our persistent slump, and generally it's too low for expensive for most of the world's and offshore oil/gas producers. It's because the easy oil has been exploited. $50 or $60 oil is not high enough for nearly all the world's oil producing countries and their reliance on tax revenues. They will all collapse. Most of the Middle East and North Africa is in a state of collapse already, meaning that I predict the rest will collapse too. Big oil companies, even today, are not making enough to even pay their dividends!! (I think I'm right on this)

The US really needs $10 or $15 oil to "save" us, but it's totally incompatible price for producers. They need $80 or $100. Therein lies the conundrum. So, oil production and the economy will generally decline going forward (since growth and oil use are highly correlated) Yes, I know Permian tight oil is temporarily booming but only because of rampant speculation in junk debt that's funding it. I don't know if these producers will ever actually recover their money.

If we can't afford higher oil prices, we can't afford growth ---because strong growth causes high oil prices now that the easy stuff has been extracted. We're reaching Peak AFFORDABLE oil. It's going to be very unstable going forward because there may be price spikes that kill the economy, followed by huge declines toward affordable levels. The economy and oil production will generally decline going forward as a greater depression continues to reveal itself. There is no boom coming. It can't happen.

So, offshore drillers don't look good at all. I know it's a bit long but look at my blog post called Our Finite Limits https://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/2017/07/our-finite-limits.html.

Take care!! Doug

Doug said...

Christian, Bryan and Hugh, check out my just-posted blog called "Extremes in Unsound Money and Finance are Leading to Catastrophe" I think it's real world evidence that explains why you technicians are going to be correct. Technicals: met fundamentals!!

http://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/2018/02/extremes-in-unsound-money-and-finance.html

Kevin Wilde said...

Doug, a 50% drop is normal given the run-up, and 80% down is normal when bears come in pairs. Note single and double bears usually alternate, so this one should be a double one, such as 1929-33, 2000-03. However, since it is governments debt that is broken this time around - or, at least, more worrisome than private debt, for most part - the money rats racing off the sinking government ship may very well race into private equity over government, diverting the government bubble money into an even larger stock and corporate debt bubble. Apple and Microsoft look an awful lot more interesting and understandable when governments are stealing investor and saving money in banks to bail them out in a bid to save the financial system. Sure, such efforts won't work, though beware of the fast - big - money trying to escape it. This is the view of Martin Armstrong. Technically, this is also possible with timing with seven year - Shemitah cycle - which calls for 5 years of feasting followed by 2 years of famine. The last cycle started in 2017, and thus the feast can run all the way into 2022.

Of course, we get places one step at a time, one trade at a time, and we have to endure a very difficult 2018 to get to that promised-land. Which puts the current set-up ball firmly in Christian's big bad bear court. Though if the bears fail this year, watch out for the mother of all blow-offs as money comes rushing in.

Kevin Wilde said...

Ding! SP 2762. Day 2 of a 4 day move across 50 day MAs. So top Wednesday, then watch out for 1987 repeat (attempt.)

Suren said...

This stock market is going to runaway with new highs. At time I wonder whether someone pays you guys to mislead those who visit your website in the wrong direction. Since I occasionally read your comments, to date, NOT one call has been right. Crying wolf, you are sure to hit one out of a 100 soon.

Do you have any clue that the current environment is like 1987? Follow Martin Armstrong for some basic education on how the stock market functions.

T.Berry said...

nas having a stellar year.


already up over 7% ytd and up 8% since the last top at 6850. next top up! lol

Kevin Wilde said...

Suren, Martin Armstrong has warned for a year or more re the danger of a slingshot event, where stocks crater before they go on his long awaited phase-transition, and has 2018 penciled in as a panic cycle year, with this week a panic cycle week, with may as the real danger time. He does believe we go much higher, though 1987-style event is a real danger (per Mr. Armstrong.)

The similarities to 1987 are: excessive valuations, matched with excessive speculation, a belief this time is different, the position of the bull/bear cycle indicator.

My newsletter was up 66% last year, and is up over 14% this year, so having a healthy respect for the big bad bear doesn't mean one has to miss out on the bubble up phase.

Also, this blog is called deflationland, thus its mission is to provide a place where people can come talk about the timing of the next deflationary phase. I'm sure there are plenty of places where folks can discuss inflation, or disinflation Goldilocks, for those seeking alternative views.

T.Berry said...

'18 shaping up real nice. both the dow jones and s&p up ytd at an annualized 24% rate and the naz a whopping 45% . this year may actually outpace last years exceptional performance.

once in a lifetime epic secular bull market. enjoy the good times!

T.Berry said...

i thought martin called for 40k if it blew through 23k? guess 27k isn't considered blowing through.

Kevin Wilde said...

Yes, Martin Armstrong believes the Dow is headed for a larger blow-off he terms "phase transition." However, he has said that the Dow is not yet ready for primetime, and that we may have to endure a slingshot ahead of that. A slingshot would be a significant sell-off that gets everyone bearish, which then reverses to head to screaming new highs. Dow 32K is the first target, and Dow 40K if we can get through 32K. He has 2018 a panic cycle year, with May as a likely panic cycle low. Dow has to breakout above 26,600 to put us in primetime rally mode, or break 21K to confirm sling-shot underway. Note he expects all this happen on the backs of collapsing European banking system, and seems a stretch toe me.

Charles Nenner just out tweeting SP hit his 2765 target, and that should cap the rally for now. Note my target was SP 2762, and I'm still expecting top to come Wednesday of this week. Then the fun really starts.

T.Berry said...

so then 23k wasn't the blow through he called for?

and is the 50-90% crash that was supposed to happened sept or oct off too? glad i'm not selling on all the tops that have been called since 2012. as long as there are tops called i'm really not worried longer term.

the stock market always comes back. that 10% didn;t last very long. bear mkts typically don't.


T.Berry said...

paging mr bicycle , do you still think "nevah 2800" again? lol if not are we going to see nevah 2900 & nevah 3000?

nevah 2200! sound familiar? lol

Kevin Wilde said...

2015 and 2016 is an excellent example of what we face here, where corrections come in three steps - down, up, down. The sell-off into Feb 2016 was the second down-leg - having sold off in Sept/Oct the prior year, then did the near double top thing. That three-stepper led to the 2017 rally.

This time around, we've had 1 sell-off, and 1 rebound, thus we still have at least one more significant sell wave to come (following this near double top run.)

Where we sit following that expected next sell wave will determine if the bull is over and the long awaited day of reckoning finally here, versus it just being another great buy the dip opportunity.

Christian has shown you want he believes is possible on that next sell-off.

I will short it, see where we end up, and adjust accordingly.

I say, top this Wednesday, then watch out below.

T.Berry said...

Is it "just another a top" or "thee top"?
Either way i'm staying long

Steffen rössler said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Steffen rössler said...

Hmm. T.Berry has some argument here -> I like to short this sh... but not only one of those bearish call has worked out as expected.
today we've crossed 2770 and normally it should go up to former ATH. maybe we see a crackdown after new ATH, but SPX 2120 this week? not really.....

T.Berry said...

steffen, i believe there really isn't much reason to sell . maybe valuations are a bit ahead but with the tax cut money just now pouring into the economy and the upcoming infrastructure bill the us economy is in pretty good shape. fundamentals remain strong. we have to be concerned with inflation---employment nearing record lows, americans wealth at record highs along with housing and the demand for jobs with the infrastructure bill passing will definitely put the pressure on.

as for new ath's, just be patient, they're coming.

Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, one won't know if its - or any - top the one that takes twenty years to come back to, versus one that goes down 10% then recovers, or 20% then recovers, or 50% then recovers. The difference is what happens during the 4 days, or 4 weeks, below the 200 day moving average. If you're down 15% from top by that time, then safe to buy, especially if its in the 3 step down position, If you're down 40% from high and just suffer a melt-down of sorts - over 4 days or 4 weeks - then safe to buy FOR A TRADE, and expect lowers prices to come, and be fearful that it may very well be the early moves of the big one that takes us 90%.

The key is to be out of the market every time the indexes are trading below their 200 day moving average, or be positioned, which all aggressive traders will no doubt be.

Now the trend is up - so positioned long is called for - however, risk is extreme, so having some hedges in place in the form of cash, puts options, or leveraged inverse ETFs, is smart.

We will be in the prime 1987 position by this Wednesday.

Kevin Wilde said...

Think of being in the prime 1987 position as New Orleans facing a massive hurricane before the levies were fixed. Those bearish New Orleans - believing it is simply a question of time before it suffers the big one that destroys the city - are convinced the storm will hit dead center. The New Orleans bulls, having seen every other storm heading their way divert at the last minute - thus proving the bears wrong time and time again - are convinced the current hurricane will also divert, and thus foolish to leave the city, or even prepare for mass flooding, no electricity, or even stock up on extra food and beer.

We are in prime hurricane season for the financial markets, and it truly is a matter of time before the bears have it right - and they only have to be right once - where as the bulls have be right every time.

Kevin Wilde said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

i won't nor do i know how to trade. i'm very content being a long term investor and buying when stocks dip. price averaging in all the while of course. this strategy has worked 100% of the time to produce solid double digit returns which works for me.

so far this year +5.5% and it's only feb. if that $$ was in a money market it would take 10 years+ to earn the same amount of interest as in the past 8 weeks. my plan at this point is to semi-retire when the dow jones hits 40k. whether that's in 2, 3, or 5 yrs.

T.Berry said...

Blogger Kevin Wilde said...
"thus proving the bears wrong time and time again -"

starting next week it'll be going on 10 years!

only about 6 or 10 more to go : )

Hugh Jazole said...

"Full metal garb"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPvYxTa1ph4

Suren said...

Kevin:

If I were you, I would subscribe to Lowry Reports. They can tell when the market is going to top 6 months in advance. According to their Feb. report, we are at least 6-9 months away sparing a natural disaster or WW3. There is broad market participation as well as plenty of capital flows from other countries. Trump's tax cut is fuelling the market also. There is no actual reason for the market to go down unless the 10-year treasury yields start spiking up, which was the reason the market took a dive.

Current Martin Armstrong Blog states that March and even May can invert to be highs.

Charles Nenner typically doesn't know what he is talking about except as a subscriber to him for over 7 years, I got worthless stock cycles that were not worth the paper it was written on. He said that DOW would be at 5,000 in 2016, then changed his mind to 2017 and so it goes on with him. He told his clients to buy gold two years ago. It is parked at $1,300.

All of us know that WW3 is round the corner. The question is -- will it happen tomorrow or 5 years from now and take the markets down with it. Till then, all the pundits are going to be calling "WOLF."

Suren

Kevin Wilde said...

Martin also says 2018 panic cycle year, with turning point last week, panic cycle this week, with May the big one. Yes, that May big one could be a top, though most of his writings suggest a major May low.

Could, would, should are all meaningless from a making money trading perspective.

The main thing is to let the markets tell what to do, as in the markets are the only opinion one needs to listen to.

There are two parts to what the markets say: trend and risk (at extremes.) Currently the trend is up, though risks are extreme. So partially long while hedged is the way to go. When the markets trigger a trend sell, then the trend will be down, and risk will bounce around similar to what is shown in Christian's chart. So then being all in cash - on the trend sell - or positioned net short is called for, adding and removing hedges around those short positions on the swings. When the trend turns up again, buy stocks.

T.Berry is fine buy and holding and losing all his money when the big one comes (history says the big one is sure to come, and even Martin Armstrong says so.

What's your plan, Suren? How do you decide how and when to adjust positions?

FWIW my positioning is 47% QLD, 46% cash, 5% TZA, 2% TVIX.

T.Berry said...

lol and I listen to the Perma Bears 6 years ago I'd have about 1/3 of the money I have now
What you just can't understand is the stock market always comes back and long-term investors who price average in win 100% of the time why can't you handle the truth
I'll admit will probably never get 66% yearly returns like you but will take solid double-digit returns annually

Keep kicking that crash can down the road sure it'll be put off till next year just like it has for the last 9
:)

T.Berry said...

armstrong's track record isn't that impressive

Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, the truth is the markets do always bounce back, though waiting two decades or more to get back to even seems foolish and unnecessary to me, especially when one factors in possible inflationary difference by then, which may mean Dow 26,000 back to 26,000 after a 80% loss may mean 26,000 is really 10,000 or 5,000 in purchasing power.

Likely tradeable top tomorrow, so great opportunity to make adjustments and put some hedges in place.

Kevin Wilde said...

Armstrong's record is second to none.

Kevin Wilde said...

My Alphaking bull/bear cycle indicator turned south to close out February (uses monthly closing data,) which confirms the bull phase is over, and the next bear corrective phase underway. Bear corrective phases come in one of two forms: minor bears that correct with time and suffers modest losses, versus major bears that correct with both price and time and suffers major losses. The presence or absence of a big bear win determines whether 2018 goes down in the history books as a minor bear corrective churn year, versus a major big bad one. Are we having fun yet?

T.Berry said...

unemployment claims back to 1969 levels. simply amazing an a testament to an outstanding economy. inflation could be right around the corner and as for the infrastructure bill, it's going to have to be tapered imo---cut it to 1T .

we're fortunate to be living in some of the greatest times in the us.

Kevin Wilde said...

The only way to use fundamentals to time the stock market is do the opposite of common wisdom at extremes. So when unemployment is low and the economy humming, expect unemployment to rise as we enter a surprise recession. When the economy sucks, with fears of a worsening recession then expect unemployment to fall as GDP turns surprise positive.

Christian Gustafson said...

If this holds today, a rally of truly frightening power is very possible.

There is no impulse in this decline. A week from now we could be up at 2930 ... or even 3040 ... on the S&P 500.

Let's see if Trump backs off the Smoot-Hawley talk. Remember, he always overdoes his initial offer in The Deal.

Kevin Wilde said...

At best, for the bulls, is we completed an A wave, thus mini bounce would lead to another round of selling to retest the Feb lows. Then we can talk about bull and bear possibilities.

T.Berry said...

date with 2180 got stood up lol

Christian Gustafson said...

Patience, please, Mr. Berry. All in good time.

Hugh Jazole said...

T. Berry, your moment in the sun is coming! Long and strong!

T.Berry said...

been waiting since 2012 :)

Kevin Wilde said...

Christian, your expected move to 2740 ended up being 40 points and four days early. My 2762 call was twenty sp handles and one day early. What happened since looks perfect to both my and your expectation.

The question is, was that simply wave A of an A-B-C wave 2, with the recent sell-off the B wave? The Dax, RUT, Japan etc charts suggests that. A wave C rally for them, would indeed put the broader US stock indexes knocking on all time highs.

However, the broader stock indexes four day rally above the 50 day - which I mentioned repeatedly on here - fits the 1987 pre crash pattern perfectly. The sell-off back in 1987 was a three down day one up, three down day one up, three down day into the crash day.

Soooo it is too early, IMHO, for either the bulls or bears to claim victory, nor seen enough evidence for adjustment to expectations be required.

The bull rally to new highs later in March and into April would require today's rebound to soon fail, and head down hard again next week, to complete a bullish A-B-C wave 2 (with the lows today the end of Wave A.)

2007 also saw such a 3 step drop from the peaks, before rallying back to the 50 day, prior to crash landing. So even an A-B-C that leads to a big rally does not confirm the bull troubles are over. The difference back in 2007 was that A-B-C drop reached new lows before rallying, thus an obvious B wave.

So the expectation here is, a day or so of modest rally attempt that soon fails, then we revisit the Feb lows. Lower lows = 1987 crash then, or rally back to 50 day then crash.

If higher lows on retest then we rally back to old highs and we follow pattern to see if Wave 2 is complete, or Wave 3 bull breakout run underway.

Right here? I'd rather be a bear than a bull, though trading opposite of extremes is the way to go.

T.Berry said...

amidst all the crash calls (and there have been many) the market always ends up hitting new all time record highs long termers hang in there this secular bull market is far from over

T.Berry said...

lol hugh. i remember your warnings 2 years ago when the dow jones was just under 18,000 (or about 7,000 points ago). keep shortin' lol

john said...

Protectionism in the face of recession, brilliant! The bagman cometh.

Doug said...

TBerry, the total inflation-adjusted return of the S&P500 since the March 2000 top is only 0.9%, worse for the Nasdaq. And it's only positive because we're in a huge (3rd) bubble taking the market to arguably the highest valuations ever.

It won't take much of a decline to turn the market's 18 year return to NEGATIVE. I suspect we are facing a good drop just ahead. Just a little historical perspective. After 18 years, you can (will be?) easily be underwater in stocks.

I remember my grandmother, who lived on dividends like myself, telling me about stocks in the 1970s. The market went nowhere from 1967 to 1982 --much of the time you were underwater. At least back then the market yielded 4% in dividends. Now you get 1.8% or thereabouts. In 1982, if you suggested to anyone to buy stocks, they would have looked at you like you were crazy. That's how discredited this asset class was at that time. No one wanted stocks. That's exactly when you want to buy with both hands. Conversely, now, everyone's obsessed about equities. Let's see how they feel when the next down cycle takes the market down about 50% (just like the bears in 2000 and 2007).

Christian Gustafson said...

Any reason why the S&P shouldn't add another 50 or 60 handles today?

T.Berry said...

doug, my investments are up over 2.5 times since 2011. i don't think inflation is up as much so being in the stock market imo is the way to stay ahead of the game. i do have some divy stocks that when i got in were paying on average near 5%. the plan is to start cashing out when the dow jones hits 40k then plow everything into divies averaging at least 4% per year and watch the nest egg grow.

cg, no need to rush it! it'll get there soon enough :)

T.Berry said...

off to a very nice start for the bull markets 10th year and running. here's to another 10 although i think we're only going to get another 6-8

Kevin Wilde said...

Danger, Will Robinson,, danger. Perfect wave ii following completion of wave 2. what happens next will rock the T.Berry's of the world to their core. Watch out below....

T.Berry said...

kevin,
i've survived the 38 crash calls since 2012 as well as last falls 50-90% crash and the 6850 one too. i'm planning on surviving this one as well. :)

when the crash calls stop, i'll worry lol

Bryan Franco said...

Lol

T.Berry said...

impressive action the dow jones is now up 300++ points off the morning lows. value is still to be had and the strength of this secular bull continues to be unprecedented

has anyone pushed the crash back till 2019 yet?

Christian Gustafson said...

No, not yet. We're still on for 2018.

Fair-value on the S&P 500 is about 535.

T.Berry said...

nasdaq's up over 7% ytd a good indicator of where the market is heading. the dow jones and sp will follow

Hugh Jazole said...

Big downturn still on schedule for this summer T. Berry, believe or NOT! Remember, unlike these permabears, I was BULLISH for 17.

Kevin Wilde said...

It is too early to tell if 2018 will end in a big bad bear mode, or hit new highs. We need to see how support holds or not, as well as the overall shape of the corrective peaks and troughs.

One thing is for sure - and I've been saying all year (after riding the entire 2017 rally in QLD) - 2018 is going to be a royal challenge to the bulls.

There are two biggie patterns that bulls must survive not to be wiped away this year. One is the 1929 pattern, which comes into play one any rally to new highs, which targets SP 3200-3500 by this summer.

The other pattern the bulls must survive is a 1987 repeat, and that pattern has been in play since the January peak. Indeed, the Russell 2000 and SP400 complete such a pattern this Friday.

The crash part - which is the part the bulls have to survive - occurs over 4 days (quick crashes such as 1929 and 1987) below the 200 day moving averages, with the crash day day 4; or over 4 weeks (slower crashes, such as 2001 and 2008.)

I will be a raging buyer on those day 4 and week 4 troughs. Where we sit at the end of those corrective "tests", corrective crash "attempts," will determine whether we are headed for new highs, or it the top is for the next two decades or more.

So patience, grasshopper, patience.

T.Berry said...

Hugh Jazole said...
They say no one rings a bell to signal a market top. Well, I'm going to ring one anyway. *ding, ding* Take a look at the action on JJC this morning.

March 23, 2016 at 6:37 AM



the sp high that day, 2048.


don't worry hugh, there have been about 47 more tops called since.

lol

T.Berry said...

no change in plan, sticking around till the dow jones hits 40,000. expect it to within 3-4 years.


keep calling those tops! : )

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

lol hugh :) i was a bit off in that it's looking mighty cheap just over 2 years later. this market still has plenty to go


T.Berry said...
s&p only 3.5% from ath. 2060 will look mighty cheap in 5-10 yrs. : )

happy new year to all

December 31, 2015 at 9:58 AM



Sarah Bell said...
T.Berry did your Mother drop you on your head as a young child?

December 31, 2015 at 10:15 AM



Hugh Jazole said...
@ Sarah, LOL!

December 31, 2015 at 11:19 AM

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

moving year end sp 3000 target up to august. the economy is kicking it. earnings about to explode to the upside.

risk is very minimal. don't believe the econ will overheat. 2018 shaping up to be another outstanding year for long term investors.



"t.berry you just wait till next year" who will say if first this year? lol

T.Berry said...

woah what a jobs report. don't be surprised if the infrastructure bill gets pushed out due to the economy being "too good". if not, inflation is going moon.

great way to end another good week, sp up over 17 in pre mkt.

this secular just keeps on getting better with age. think bottom of the fifth. : )

T.Berry said...

no dives, dates or 87''s

T.Berry said...

very nice volume. we're at a point now, where there is very little chance of much downside. we are coming off a strong rally from a 10% pullback. And remember, since 1950 the stock market has sold off 10% on average of once every 4.5 years. From here, the upside really is unlimited. new ath's are coming as well as "never 2800 again" lol

T.Berry said...

oops NEVAR 2800 again.

Kevin Wilde said...

Martin Armstrong just out with a private blog post saying not to expect a big sell-off here, nor a big rally, with corrective churn likely through July. At that point, a major trend should unfold.

That fits my view also. So a nice end of the week for the bulls, though doubt it changes anything.

RUT/MDY/SPX/DJI all remain in the 1987 pre-crash position...

T.Berry said...

-5%-7% will be considered big selloffs over the next few years. if the perma's can time them right they'll make some dough too as the dow jones journey's towards 40,000. glta!

never been a better time to be in the stock market.

T.Berry said...

sp up almost 5% ytd (26% annualized) and naz up 10% (52% annualized)


not bad for a "churn" year. lol

T.Berry said...

given the naz is just a mere 3.8% from my year end target of 7,880 its already time to bump that target up.

new year end naz target is now 8,000. most likely a low end target as its just 5.4% away. not really going out on a limb raising. as always i tend to error on the side of caution. last several year end targets have been blow out.

will reassess new target in a few months and see if we need to raise again.

T.Berry said...

paging bicycle

2801 (again) lol

Christian Gustafson said...

Buy some SPY, Mr. Berry, we need the cup -n- handle to play out north.

T.Berry said...

fully loaded already cg----ave in around sp 1550'ish since 2011.

i held through last falls 50-90% crash and 6850 so i don't plan on selling here :)


on to nevar (nevahr? naver? nevvar?) 2900? lol

Kevin Wilde said...

SP completed day 4 above 50 day moving average, which is the 1987 pre-crash set-up pattern. Only indexes not to have completed that yet is Dow Industrials and Dow Transports. That could be the negative divergence TELL, or it could be we still have another week of rally to go before they do the 4 day rally above the 50 day.

First stop when the selling flood-gates open for real is the 2011 lows at SP 1074, so anyone buy and holding will have taken their money for a wild ride that delivered zero return, which of course is the problem with buy and hold as a concept.

Kevin Wilde said...

SP 2762 seems to providing the killer resistance I expected. It gaped over that level twice, though was never able to hold it more than a day or two. Wave 3 of some sort next (or C) thus about to get scary red ink again. How that sell pattern unfolds will determine whether new highs lay down the road, versus the current bubble has popped for real.

Suren said...

Eric S Hadik (end of 17 year cycle) of InsideTrack as well as Charles Nenner are calling for market tops in late 2017, which has occurred on Jan. 26th, 2018. Hence, these two forecasters are calling for a market slide from now on till 2020. It is also 112 years since the April 18th, 1906 San Francisco earthquake (112 biblical cycle / 112 popes of St. Malachy), etc. Indeed, if a big earthquake hits the US, we can plunge into a recession and that will take the stock markets down with it.

Martin Armstrong does say that there will be increased earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. We live in interesting times. Forecasters typically cover both bases - markets will go up as well as down. The trader is in the middle scratching is head!

Bryan Franco said...

Suren- what you are assuming is that the broken window fallacy is actually a fallacy. It isnt, as you should have learned from this past year's natural disasters. It is about capital flow, not stock. The destruction of past capital formation could impact standards of living though, but it would be bullish for the stock market, as it would justify the need to form more capital, faster.

Kevin Wilde said...

Bryan, yes the markets are about capital flows, though debt - big-time margin debt - is the most important port of that, and margin debt grows dramatically during the bubble build phase, then collapse in on itself - and shrinks dramatically - during the bubble pop phase. What drives margin up is overconfidence building as buy the dips succeeds and succeeds and succeeds. What drives margin debt to implode is a buy the dip that fails, which brings in margin calls after margin calls. Consumer and investor confidence follows the direction of stock market movement. The current market is a bubble in search of a pin, and we may have found it.

Kevin Wilde said...

Today is day 1 of a likely 4 day move below 50 day moving averages. Crashes happen on 4th day closing below 200 day moving average. We should be testing the latter by Friday of this week, which sets up a scary move to end the month. Martin Armstrong had the week of March 19 (here) as turn date. Market hates the YEN rising, since that is where the biggest bubble of all is, with a rising YEN causing losses on their overseas leveraged portfolios due to currency movement, creating margin calls that require selling of overseas stocks.

Glenn R said...

It looks like 1929 developing here...
My charting says we are at Oct 20th 1929. If we close the gap tomorrow and close up...look out below. I could be wrong but I see what Kevin is pointing to...just saying