Monday, February 12, 2018

Crash leg setting up post-Valentine's Day

It looks like we completed A of 2 up at 2573 today, leaving B to correct and a final C up.

SPX 15-min

This sets us up for the next crashy leg off the thin green trendline either starting Valentine's Day (@2740), or soon thereafter (slightly lower).

The market is moving fast enough already to leave those waiting for a fall 2018 crash as spectators to the disaster that is unfolding now.  The months of May and June could destroy many trillions $$$ of pretend wealth.

SPX daily

Monday, February 5, 2018

Bleak -- 50 DMA annihilated, 200 on deck

Well that didn't take long at all.  If the 50 couldn't hold up, then maybe the 200 can provide a bit more of a bounce, at least a few days of sideways.  From the pace of things, it looks like we are headed straight back to the origin of the blow-off top, the 2421 level on the S&P 500, late this month.

Any bounce from that level would have to be on hope for policy accommodation at the March FOMC.  We closed right on channel support today, broken now with continued heavy selling AH.  This red line becomes the target for a kissback rally into March.

SPX doom

Final cycle lows EOM May @1810 on the next major Bradley turn date.  We'll see if the 2/25 and 3/9 dates mark the actual low and rally highs of the respective upcoming moves.  The yield on the 13-week T-bill actually rose today, which means a rate hike for sure in March if this continues.

Manfred Zimmel's 1/29 Bradley nailed the top.

Bradley turn dates,

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Now the S&P tests its 50 DMA

The parabolic run up to the 3K level has ended with a bang, so the next step will be for us to test the 50 DMA (this week), and the 200 DMA (after Feb opex), while chopping our way down to a significant low like the spike lows from Brexit.

Resistance on the big bounces will be from the 2/4 trendlines of previous wave sets.  The epic W3 crash begins at the July/August FOMC, when the Fed reaffirms its policy of shrinking its balance sheet as planned in 2H 2018.

SPX supports and resistance