Tuesday, April 4, 2017

The S&P 500 needs to re-test the 666 price level

Here's how:

S&P 500 retrace to fair value

81 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Lies, all lies.

Bicycle said...

AMZN nearing the end of a really big rising wedge

Bicycle said...

June rate increase now up to 63% probability as of today, yesterday it was at 58%. Fed has always raised when probability is above 60%

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Hugh Jazole said...

Any cuts will probably be put off till 2018. They need to keep raising now so they can cut later. They know what's coming.

T.Berry said...

hugh,the fed will make the right call. their track record over the last 9 years is down right insanely impressive. remember, yellen is no slouch. she has done a pretty amazing job following up bernanke. consider a 5% pullback a gift (hint, stock market always comes back 100% of the time). long term, the stock market will do just fine.
can you picture dow 30,000 :O)

Hugh Jazole said...

http://theduran.com/the-cia-and-deep-state-have-controlled-us-media-and-hollywood-for-decades/

Hugh Jazole said...

You guys have any theories about what's happening in this banana republic?

Christian Gustafson said...

Is it all over? We just wait for the Bannon exit now?

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

yeah it's over, s&p going to 200 next week or the following. can you picture that lol

Christian Gustafson said...

Not the market, silly. Trump's mandate from his base.

His base is extremely pissed-off tonight.

TSE said...

It is either a massive depression - or a quantum leap in Hu-Man development.

Remember - that all natural Earthbound primates have 24 chromosomes - while Hu-Mans only have 23.

The Creator is gonna be pissed off when he sees what we have done to this Fine Planet - or EDEN.

https://youtu.be/OufK0647p1U

Hugh Jazole said...

"The Creator is gonna be pissed off when he sees what we have done to this Fine Planet - or EDEN" It's 120+ degrees in some places, -20 in others, the majority of water on "eden" is salt water, there are fault lines which cause earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, floods, volcanoes, etc. If the earth was created, it seems like a pretty shoddy job was done.

Bryan Franco said...

I am more worried about the robots than anything else. TSE. What do you have to say about the robots? Automation. Etc. Also, what about increasing life expectancies? That, together with automation are huge forces that could propel us into negative rates. How does the Fed overcome that? Sometimes, to understand something, take a scenario to the extreme... If you knew you would live 500 years, would you be in much of a hurry to get paid back on a loan you made? Increasing life expectancies could be one factor that I have never seen mentioned as a critical force in driving interest rates lower. Couple that with automation, AI, demographic changes, etc, and maybe the bond market is designed, even more so than stocks, to go perpetually higher.

Bicycle said...

Why is Gary Cohn currently touting a reinstatement of Glass-Steagall?

Hugh Jazole said...

Would anyone WANT to live 500 years? I'm not sure I want to live 90! How many new experiences could a person have? It seems that long of a life would just end up being monotonous. The older I get, the more I think the primitives had it better in some ways. An intense/hard 35 or so years, as opposed to a soft/cushy 90.

Bryan Franco said...

HJ. That wasn't my point.

Hugh Jazole said...

"What are we to make of creation in which routine activity is for organisms to be tearing others apart with teeth of all types - biting, grinding flesh, plant stalks, bones between molars, pushing the pulp greedily down the gullet with delight, incorporating its essence into one’s own organization, and then excreting with foul stench and gasses residue. Everyone reaching out to incorporate others who are edible to him. The mosquitoes bloating themselves on blood, the maggots, the killer-bees attacking with a fury and a demonism, sharks continuing to tear and swallow while their own innards are being torn out - not to mention the daily dismemberment and slaughter in “natural” accidents of all types: an earthquake buries alive 70 thousand bodies in Peru, a tidal wave washes over a quarter of a million in the Indian Ocean. Creation is a nightmare spectacular taking place on a planet that has been soaked for hundreds of millions of years in the blood of all creatures. The soberest conclusion that we could make about what has actually been taking place on the planet about three billion years is that it is being turned into a vast pit of fertilizer. But the sun distracts our attention, always baking the blood dry, making things grow over it, and with its warmth giving the hope that comes with the organism’s comfort and expansiveness."

Ernest Becker, The Denial of Death

TSE said...

To answer your question:

The Western mind can only experience "Death"

The Eastern mind understands that death leads to life - renewal - or that cycles from high to low are a natural consequence which leads to living in a balanced World.

The Om (or Aum) is said to be the “sound” of cosmic creation that occurs throughout the universe. It is described in Hindu and Buddhist teachings and texts and many claim to hear it during meditation. In the context of the ancient physics of subquantum kinetics, it may be interpreted as the constant fluctuation of the ether substrates that extend throughout the universe and underlie our physical wave-like existence. This vibrating ether may be be compared to a choppy sea, or to the white noise snow many have seen on an untuned analog TV set. Subquantum kinetics predicts the existence of such a cosmic vibration as a collective of minute energy impulses, each of which is a momentary localized ether concentration pulse (or energy pulse) imparted when an etheron changes from one state to another either through a transmutation or reaction process. There may be an infinite number of such ether states in this possibly endless journey through ether states deployed through the higher dimension of space, but we have no way of knowing for sure. We can only hypothesize with some certainty that our universe exists at a particular juncture in this river of transformation, a flux that extends both “above” and “below” our physical plane.

This etheron transformation is a Markov chain process, one in which death from one state occurs in conjunction with birth into a new state. Shiva Nataraja, the Cosmic Dancer from Hindu mysticism shown above, symbolically illustrates this Markovian process. His left hand holds the flame of cosmic dissolution which represents the departure of etherons as they disappear from their former etheric state to transmute into the next. His upper right hand, his hand of creation, holds a drum which he continually shakes creating the sound of cosmic creation, the Om sound. This represents the vibratory pulses of the etherons popping into their new etheron states throughout the universe. Shiva’s dancing body is configured in the shape of the ancient sanskrit Om symbol. Together, these processes of etheron dissolution and creation which Shiva denotes signifies the ever-present cosmic flux that sustains our physical universe in its present state of existence.

The Om may also be identified with the continual omnipresent stochastic energy fluctuation process that physicists call the zero-point energy continuum. Although the standard physics concept of quantum zero-point fluctuation differs in some respects in comparison to the subquantum fluctuation concept of subquantum kinetics, both theories predict the existence of a zero-point energy continuum. There is no known experiment that can directly observe these zero point fluctuations since subquantum kinetics predicts that they take place below the quantum level and standard physics predicts that they last a length of time too short for measurement. Their presence, however, has indirectly been observed through detection of the Casimir effect, a force theorized to be exerted on two closely spaced parallel plates, due to environmental zero-point fluctuation pressure attempting to pushing them together

http://etheric.com/om-the-cosmic-vibration/

It is from the "Om" that the Banksters create money - and thus an overunity reaction.

I hope this answers your question:

"That, together with automation are huge forces that could propel us into negative rates. How does the Fed overcome that?"

The Universe is....Limitless.

https://youtu.be/C_Z48dHFYLc

TSE said...

The Hunt for Zeropoint:

In 1966 a group of highly respected aerospace engineers revealed that US scientists were perfecting ways to control gravity. They predicted a breakthrough would come by the end of the decade, ushering in an era of limitless, clean propulsion for a new breed of fuelless transport systems - and weapons beyond our imagination. Of course it never happened. Or did it? Forty years later a chance encounter with one of the engineers who made that prediction forces a highly sceptical aerospace and defence journalist, Nick Cook, to consider the possibility that America did indeed crack the gravity code - and has covered up ever since. His investigations moved from the corridors of NASA to the dark heartland of America's classified weapons establishment, where it became clear that half a century ago, in the dying days of the Third Reich, Nazi scientists were racing to perfect a Pandora's Box of high technology that would deliver Germany from defeat. History says that they failed. But the trail that takes Cook deep into the once-impenetrable empire of SS General Hans Kammler - the man charged by Adolf Hitler with perfecting German secret weapons technology - says otherwise. In his pursuit of the true facts behind Kammler, Cook finally establishes the truth: America is determined to hang onto its secrets, but the stakes are enormous and others are now in the race to acquire a suppressed technology.

https://www.amazon.com/Hunt-Zero-Point-Discover-Invention/dp/0099414988

TSE said...

And to be slightly more rude - compost - which is composed of formerly live material - and which is now considered as dead - nourishes the young and the living.

This is what you - HJ - were supposed to learn in Kindergarten:


https://youtu.be/GibiNy4d4gc


Hugh Jazole said...

"I flap my wings in the face of Mohammed & blind him. With my claws I tear out the flesh of the Indian and the Buddhist, Mongol and Din. Bahlasti! Ompehda! I spit on your crapulous creeds."

Aleister Crowley

Hugh Jazole said...

"This circling planet-ball is no navel-contemplating Nirvana, but rather a vast whirling star-lit Valhalla, where victorious battlers quaff the foaming hearts-blood of their smashed-up adversaries, from the scooped out skull goblets of the slain in never-ending war."

Might Is Right by Ragnar Redbeard

Christian Gustafson said...

TSE -- excellent contribution, thanks.

I saw the Church play that at Mandell Hall in the Reynolds Club (U of C) in, what, 1988? Good show.

Kevin Wilde said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kevin Wilde said...

"Why is Gary Cohn currently touting a reinstatement of Glass-Steagall?"

To re-separate, and prevent, individual bank savings from being used as collateral for mega margin used for speculation.

Thus, when whatever is being speculated on by mega margin at bubble peaks pops the banking system is not effected.

History says won't be reenacted till we are near the bottom of the next collapse, as it took the original banking collapse of the 1930 depression before folks thought it was a good idea - after the horse has bolted - and then it took the 1999 bubble peak before ditching Glass Steagal was deemed smart.

You just can't make this stuff up!

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey! New guy!

Welcome.

Kevin Wilde said...

I'm more like a doomsday lurker than a new guy ;-)

Hugh Jazole said...

"doomsday lurker" I like that.

Hugh Jazole said...

"Economically, wars cost money; in a free economy, where wealth is privately owned, the costs of war come out of the income of private citizens—there is no overblown public treasury to hide that fact—and a citizen cannot hope to recoup his own financial losses (such as taxes or business dislocations or property destruction) by winning the war. Thus his own economic interests are on the side of peace.

In a statist economy, where wealth is “publicly owned,” a citizen has no economic interests to protect by preserving peace—he is only a drop in the common bucket—while war gives him the (fallacious) hope of larger handouts from his master. Ideologically, he is trained to regard men as sacrificial animals; he is one himself; he can have no concept of why foreigners should not be sacrificed on the same public altar for the benefit of the same state."

Ayn Rand

Bicycle said...

Kevin--stick around, that's a good an answer as any I've heard, that they're going to pilfer the cash and firewall themselves off from the flaming piles of garbage.

TSE said...

LOL!

Trader: "Investors Are Struggling More With The Known Knowns Than The Unknown Ones"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-11/trader-investors-are-struggling-more-known-knowns-unknown-ones

The Fibonacci in Lateralus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wS7CZIJVxFY

BTW - Thakx CG -

Remember Duck Duck Goose -

A group of players sit in a circle, facing inward, while another player, who is "it", walks around tapping or pointing to each player in turn, calling each a "duck" until finally calling one a "goose". The "goose" then rises and tries to tag "it", while "it" tries to return to and sit where the "goose" had been sitting. If "it" succeeds, the "goose" becomes "it" and the process begins again. If the "goose" tags "it", the "goose" may return to sit in the previous spot and "it" resumes the process.[2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck,_duck,_goose

Everything I ever needed to know - I learned in Kindergarten.

TSE said...

Nothing in This Book Is True, But It’s Exactly How Things Are is an account of humankind’s function within the grand celestial battle between internal and external knowledge. Author Bob Frissell gives a compelling account of our planetary ascent into higher consciousness, presenting a big-screen view of the Earth through the experience of the Ascended Masters, Thoth, Babaji, and Drunvalo Melchizedek.

https://www.amazon.com/Nothing-This-Exactly-Things-Anniversary/dp/1556438311

The Godz:https://youtu.be/9FRATeocV2I

Enjoy!

Hugh Jazole said...

Nothing to see here.

http://usapoliticsnow.com/breaking-top-clinton-aide-summoned-congress-turns-dead/


T.Berry said...

careful with those shorts...

Morgan Stanley says huge 30% stock surge could be ahead; Like 1999, 'cannot afford to miss it'

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/morgan-stanleys-new-strategist-says-2017-could-be-like-1999.html

Christian Gustafson said...

There is a New Moon April 26.

$AMZN earnings are the next day. The stock would complete a bearish wedge up around $952 by then.

They are the economy now, you know.

Hugh Jazole said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bryan Franco said...

I think we do 2290s worst case on this leg down, then New ATH in the low 2400s, then come within 1% of 2290s and then retest and fail at 2400... By July .

T.Berry said...

that would be almost 3% pullback bryan, sounds about right given the mkt strenght. can't imagine it falling much more with the amount of buying that seems to step in on any little pullback. 2450 is my year end target and i'll stick with it for now unless we're there by june/july which is possible, then re-access and raise into year end. 2500 is a nice round number :)

todays dji 139 pt rally off the low was very impressive and just another reason why not to sell this bull.

Christian Gustafson said...

Mr. Berry --

Help me convince these degenerate permabears that the market needs to get to 2464 on the S&P by the end of April.

T.Berry said...

no real need to get there by a certain date cg, it will get there, just be patient. btw going much higher by the time this secular bull runs it's course. a year from now it will be much higher anyway. been here for the last 6,000 dji points waiting for the crash and plan to be here for the next 6,000 (only about 28% till 27k). too many are caught up in 2009 happening again. it will, but its a once in lifetime event (think once every 80 years or so). who has that kind of time :)!

so whether it gets to 2464 by the end of april or not, in a year, 2 years, 3 years, it will be much higher (um, we're in a multi-year secular bull). have a long term horizon --ltbh & price average in wins 100% of the time :) pssst, the stock market always comes back :) and buying the dip works 100% of the time. got to play the averages cg!

Hugh Jazole said...

This permabear sees no reason to be bearish for the time being.

T.Berry said...

agree hj, haven't seen any reason in the last 6 years. nothings changed except the economy getting stronger. don't see it slowing down anytime soon

Kevin Wilde said...

get ready for a flash crash. Get those hedges on!

Christian Gustafson said...

I think we are near the end of the crash window from the last Hindenburg Omen signal from a few months ago.

If we get a 5th wave up, presumably it would be low-volume and full of divergences that would give us a fresh HO.

Watch the VIX today -- if it closes back inside its daily Bollinger Band (~15.30), that would be considered a "buy" signal on the indices.

Kevin Wilde said...

Markets likely puke as 50 day moving averages give way as North Korea day of reckoning weekend looms larger, thus expect VIX to soar tomorrow.

Christian Gustafson said...

Bourses closed for Good Friday tomorrow, Kevin.

Kevin Wilde said...

Fits with the Monday/Tuesday mini-crash as algos front-run stop loss triggers, then we reverse as the dust clears and it becomes clearer that the fighting is nearing the end rather than the beginning. All to complete a 4th wave. If its a biggy 4th then resulting 5th likely a failure. That's my expectation!

Hugh Jazole said...

Affix your tin foil hats gentleman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQmIPK7DQh8



Hugh Jazole said...

Nearly 90% bullish VIX sentiment, over 70% bearish SPX sentiment. Oh man.

Christian Gustafson said...

^VIX showing a buy signal on the indexes, closing outside its upper daily Bollinger Band, and now back inside.

We have obvious overhead resistance, need to punch through it and make a new high.

T.Berry said...

don't think we'll see a new high cg, but new highs! and many more of them. you've been calling the highs pretty good, forget the crashes! easiest way to make money in a secular is being long (remember to ave in and you win 100% of time)! the amount of wealth being created should continue for quite a while. american's have never been wealthier

think 4th inning.

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Christian Gustafson said...

We are agreed, Mr. Berry. SPX just needs to get through 2370 and it will run.

Christian Gustafson said...

I'd be tickled if we could retake the 2400 level by the end of this week.

T.Berry said...

2370 will get here cg. just patience is all that is needed. doesn't really matter to me whether its this month or next or possibly even june. gotta hit 2370 on the way to 2500 :) have a hunch we'll see 666 but its going to have a 2 in front 2666 sometime within next 12-18 months. its the strongest bull in history until it isn't :) . we're fortunate as investors

Hugh Jazole said...

We have to become as emotionless as the machines.

Hugh Jazole said...

I think this might be it. It looks like we'll push through resistance finally.

Hugh Jazole said...

LOL! Who could have seen this coming?

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-recalls-53000-model-s-model-x-cars-for-stuck-parking-brakes/


T.Berry said...

who knows hugh, this could be the beginning of morgan stanleys recent call for a 30% rally. that puts s&p smack on 3,000. historical bull market in progress!

cg you should draw a chart showing how we get to 3,000 :)

Bryan Franco said...

Bullish small caps versus tech right here.

T.Berry said...

bryan, not much not to like about this market. what could possibly slow it down a bit is if the economy starts overheating. if that happens, i think the fed steps in and rights it. like them or not, they have done a pretty amazing job over the past 8 years. americans have never been wealthier and i'd say they deserve some of the credit.

T.Berry said...

just saw this article no sooner than last post....the fed might be doing to good of a job :)


Number of people collecting unemployment checks hits 17-year low, jobless claims show


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/number-of-people-collecting-unemployment-checks-hits-17-year-low-jobless-claims-show-2017-04-20


Christian Gustafson said...

Tape looks great today; wave 4 finally in as an abcde triangle? Now we can rally hard to 4/28 USA debt doom and $amzn earnings.

I'm at the south rim of the Grand Canyon tonight, on the Maswik Lodge wifis, heading down into the canyon with my mom and sister tomorrow morning. We've got two nights at the tent sites on Bright Angel, always good hiking down in there.

Hugh Jazole said...

When I was a teenager, I rode a mule to the bottom of the north rim. Awesome experience, but I would not do it again. I had to sign a release of liability waiver, and about half way through the trip I knew why.

Hugh Jazole said...

Are we setting up for a rocket close?

Bryan Franco said...

Small caps are too strong relatively speaking. I think the S&P makes a lower low like the Dow did this week, but $RUT holds this week's lows, and the dip is short-lived in equity land.

Hugh Jazole said...

"and the dip is short-lived in equity land." Breadth trajectory is starting to look bullish. Instead of sell in May, looks like buy in May this year.

Kevin Wilde said...

I have the recent correction as the 1st of 3 corrections this year, with the next rally slated to hit new highs in May/June peak, drop back near here for 2nd correction around July, before final blast off to new highs going into August/September peak. Then watch out below. AKA the 1929, 1987, and 2007 patterns.

Hugh Jazole said...

"Then watch out below. AKA the 1929, 1987, and 2007 patterns" It seems a lot more like the late nineties to me, and I think the bear market to follow will be similar. Either way we're setting up for a violent bull run.

Kevin Wilde said...

A royal melt-up repeat is possible, though hard to make a case that one is underway now, not with so few stocks making new highs. That can change, and certainly we should be able to spot some signs of that, though so far brute momo strength is lacking.

High risk blow off phases - of which we are in, per my bull/bear cycle indicator - keep on going till the bears score a big win.

They follow the 3 corrective model I outlined above.

A Great Bear starts when the bears score their big win.

1929/1987/2007 ended with the third correction being the big one.

A 1999 repeat would suggest we survive that fall crash attempt, to end the year in blow off mode.

If so, then we get to repeat this whole process again next year.

Following the trend - both up and down - is the way to trade high risk blow off phases. Hisrtory puts a 80% chance we see a fall crash, versus we see a 1998/1999 royal melt-up.

Hugh Jazole said...

One of the reasons I think this is different from those bear markets, is that I just don't see an inverted yield curve anywhere in sight. I believe all of those bears were preceded by a sharp curve inversion. I'm hardly a bond market expert, but bonds seem to be in an entirely different place than anything we're accustomed to.

Bryan Franco said...

HJ. The crash this time could be due to a spike in yields. A totally different tune.

Hugh Jazole said...

I've thought about that. Is there a historical precedent?

Bryan Franco said...

HJ. It is a strange thing. At first, this will sound like a contradiction from my previous post. Crashes, by definition, happen from great heights. That usually happens after yields have been rising anyways (because things have been good). So in essence, almost every crash has been preceded by a rise in yields! The historical precedent we are looking for is something different. Yields have three components 1. Inflation 2. Real interest/growth 3. Fudge factor (liquidity preference?) Something China-related could cause a sustained spike in that third component. I think a lot of crashes have an element of that third component as a trigger, but it is usually brief. I can't think of a precedent for a long-term rise in liquidity premia. There might have been in 1800s and before. I will have to review. Also, keep in mind that just because a particular mechanism for a crash hasn't happened in the last century, it doesn't mean it is any less likely of a potential cause. Market historians have recreated financial markets to antiquity, and crashes were caused by all sorts of reasons we haven't seen since the NYSE has existed.

Kevin Wilde said...

There are other elements to consider beyond the yield curve that were present prior to all past major bear markets. One is prolonged bull market (this is second longest on record.) One is margin debt record followed by a pullback in margin debt (current level comparable to 2000 and 2007 peaks, and is backing off.) Deteriorating earnings growth (SP earnings peaked in 2014.) Recession indicators moving into position for a turn (record low 4 week MA of unemployment claims, record high consumer confidence, record high business confidence = all ready to switch the other way.) Divergence (Trannies, utilities, small caps all in position to non-confirm a move to new highs for industrials, SP, NAZ.) Very high valuations (stocks have only spent 9% of time at these, or above these, lofty valuations, and most of those were going into the 2000 and 2007 peaks.

Add in the potential for a meat-grinder war with North Korea that can start without any warning at any time, a constitutional crises in the US if news event swing bad for Trump re Russia, or Obama re wire-tapping, a government shut down as freedom caucus dig in, a failure of another Greek bailout this summer, or an anti-EU win for candidates in France or Germany.

And, last but least, the yield curve can invert in one of two ways. Short rates rise faster than long rates. Long rates drop faster than short rates.

Any fear event outlined above can easily result in the latter as money comes out of stocks into the bond market.

The markets are a confidence Ponzi scheme, after all.

Kevin Wilde said...

add rapid currency shift to the above list, where a strong dollar brings down emerging markets as their dollar denominated debt bombs go off.

Hugh Jazole said...

"Short rates rise faster than long rates." That scenario seems much more likely to me here. No matter what, I'm convinced there is some money to be made over the next few/several months, on the long side. The latest AAII sentiment survey has only 25% of investors bullish. That will likely decline further on the next survey, then when might have a low in finally.

Kevin Wilde said...

I use NAAIM for sentiment data, and that remains stubbornly bullish. NAAIM exposure index currently at 71% net long. http://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

I'm personally 94% in QLD, 5% in TZA, 1% in TVIX. Looking to sell 1/2 QLD on NAZ rally to 6200, and/or reverse TZA and TVIX hedges on a 3-5% pullback.

Expect bears to be disappointed till September, though all bets are off if something blows up overseas and money rushes into the USD.

Hugh Jazole said...

Let's keep in mind too, that we are about to cross another population milestone. 7.5 billion! Yikes!

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/


Hugh Jazole said...

From a popular Elliot Wave blog. "Short term symmetry appears broken 2378 might be exceeded too" LOL!