Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Late April to complete the bearish wedge

SPX 2322 was about a 24.8% retrace of the leg from 2083 to ~2401 on the S&P 500, enough for a wave 4, which, if completed, is drawing a very bearish wedge up here in the ether.

This week we need to reach resistance at 2390 SPX on Thursday and chop around for another week, back to support, setting up an inverse head & shoulders for the final high.

SPX 30d

Again, once our situation is obvious to all the players, equity markets will quickly go bidless and collapse in a matter of weeks.  Desperate doomed pension funds will pump up the volume.



Christian Gustafson said...

A surprise Le Pen win will nuke the markets from the other side of the Atlantic -- panic and collapse.

Anonymous said...

Move that June to 2018 and I might be more aligned with some form of this scenario. We shall see.

T.Berry said...

lol. hugh, if not 2018, then 2019 for sure right? ;)

no reason to sell stocks anytime soon. consider a 5% pullback a gift if we're lucky to see one. should resume putting out the "stocks are at levels never seen before" signs. lost track of the number of new ATH's we've hit just in the first 3 months this year.

Anonymous said...

"lost track of the number of new ATH's we've hit just in the first 3 months this year." I clearly remember that's how it was in 2006/07 too. Nothing wrong with being a bull, but remember a bull is an alert/nimble animal.

Bryan Franco said...

T. Berry, do you hedge at all by buying insurance (puts) on the general market?

Christian Gustafson said...

c of A of 5 up today? SPX 2391 at the close?

T.Berry said...

hugh,06/07 imo was once in lifetime event happens every 70-80 years

brian, long term buy/hold price average in is my strategy. not smart enough to time market to buy puts. in for the long term. very pleased with returns. its pretty much a no lose safe strategy if you have a long term 10+ horizon. dont' panic on the pullback, the stock market always comes back

T.Berry said...

wrap up best quarter in 2 years today. not a bad start for '17. time to put off the crash for another year ,9 and counting :0)

Anonymous said...

ZH is on a roll this weekend. Sure looks bearish to me.

"High Number Of Consumers See Stock Rally As "Sure Thing"
"Maybe The Recovery Wasn't Real After All"
"Why The Market's "One-Sided Stability" Is Becoming Increasingly Dangerous: Deutsche Explains"
"Stock-To-Bond Ratio Back At 2007 Peak"
"Eric Peters: "Bull Markets Peak When Every Piece Of News Is An Excuse To Buy"
"Equities Ignore Trump Chaos - Q1 Was The Calmest Market In A Decade"
"Who Is The Real "50 Cent" - A Mystery Trader Is Systematically Betting Massive On A VIX Spike"

TSE said...

HJ sez: "Nothing wrong with being a bull, but remember a bull is an alert/nimble animal."

And at the Gates of Ancient Sumneria stands a depiction of an Auroch - A Bull.

Scientists are close to bringing back a huge ancient cattle species called an aurochs.

Aurochs roamed Europe for thousands of years until the last of their kind died in the Jaktorow Forest in Poland in 1627. They were 7 ft tall and weighed around 1,000kg.


Don't worry about the bulls.

Watch out for the Sirrush.

The Sirrush, also known as the mushussu, is a hybrid from Babylonian mythology. Dating back to the sixth century BC it is depicted on the Ishtar Gate of the City of Babylon.
A German archeologist Robert Koldewey discovered the Gate in 1902 and thought the sirrush was a representation of a real animal. The sirrush is displayed on the gate alongside other animals like a lion and a rimi (an extinct type of cattle).
It is described as a dragon with scales, eagle-like hind legs and talons, and feline-like front legs and paws. The creature has a long neck and tail, with a horned head, snakelike tongue and a crest.
In 1918, Koldewey suggested the sirrush closely matched the Iguanodon, a dinosaur with birdlike hind feet. Other explanations of what the creature could have been is a Sivatherium, a giraffe-like animal that became extinct about 8,000 years ago.
In the certain books and passages of the Old Testament, the sirrush is believed to be mentioned. Babylonians worshipped a great dragon or serpent which priests had in a temple dedicated to Bel (Nebuchadnezzar’s God).
In the Book of Daniel, Daniel confronted this creature when the priests challenged him to test his God against their living God. Daniel defeated the creature by poisoning it.


Christian Gustafson said...

Yes, this. TSE is looking several steps ahead, at what really matters.

I took a ton of photos of Really Bad yuppie Seattle RRE this weekend, will cobble it all into some sort of post tonight.

buysilver said...

There is housing madness in Canada, no basis in reality, it is time, we are at a top. How do I short this with buying a stock? I just read you guys, I don't trade.

T.Berry said...

hugh, zh has been wrong about stocks for 9 years and counting. anyone who took investing advise from them has lost out on the greatest wealth creation in a long time. they have help lead the bears to the slaughterhouse lol.

Anonymous said...

"There is housing madness in Canada, no basis in reality, it is time, we are at a top." If there is anything worth shorting it's real estate. Hard to know if it will crash as hard as it did before, I tend to think it won't be quite as bad. There are REIT short ETF's, but have no experience with them. The only short ETF I've used is SDS.

Bryan Franco said...

We have SRS in the portfolio. Not allowed to short outright with our custodial arrangement. SRS is the 2x inverse REIT etf.

Anonymous said...

Don't be fancy.