Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Vive Le Pen

It would appear that we are in a larger degree wave 4 than we had suspected, correcting the leg on SPX from 2083 to almost 2401.  This wave should run into next week, roughly toward the end of March, retracing to support near the .382 fib, around the 2280 level SPX.

Marine Le Pen, you're our only hope

Then we can look forward to some sort of political fix with Trump and the GOP, animal spirits, and a rally to finish the mess.

SPX 20D

The shape of the final rally, into the French elections.  Vive la majorit√© silencieuse.

SPX 1Y

Marine Le Pen elected Maximum Leader of the France will of course save that country from demographic peril, at the cost of Europe and the worldwide ponzi credit money system. 

Again, the Fed will CUT in June, as a desperate attempt to staunch the bleeding.  It will only trigger a vicious short-squeeze and halfway-back bounce.  

Then the crash resumes in earnest, and we re-test 666 on the S&P 500.  

New QE rolled out in September.

SPX 2Y

18 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

It's that classic refrain ... one more high.

Oh, and you really ought to read this.

Hugh Jazole said...

Thanks for reminding me that I need to read The Fourth Turning. I've heard that it's open to interpretation, and many believe that we may in fact be PAST the crisis/unraveling phase and are headed into a growth phase.

Hugh Jazole said...

Caldero did a take on this a while back. He believes that we're entering a time similar to 1949-67.

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/11/04/politics-and-secular-bullbear-markets/


Hugh Jazole said...

Investing.com UVXY sentiment 100% bullish. This should get interesting.

Christian Gustafson said...

Investing.com's indicators are kinda funny at times, though. I've seen their monthly ones flip from red to green after a few 5-minute candles overnight. Seems a little sensitive for a longer-term guide.

Christian Gustafson said...

No way that 2008 was all of the "crisis" phase of 4th Turning, though.

The status quo mounted a desperate defense, and still has a grip on things. We are still in the 20th Century.

Currency is key.

Hugh Jazole said...

He does make a pretty convincing case, but I tend to agree with you.

Christian Gustafson said...

Got to appreciate the ambiguity here.

If the 2336 SPX low this morning was the true end of W4, then we just corrected the move from 2233 to 2401 SPX, right about a .382 retrace. We would head up NOW for new highs on a minor 5th over the next couple of weeks.

If that's the case, then in wave terms, we only wonder if there are additional 4/5 cycles of this left to unwind, or if it is finally over and it's time to see true impulsive waves south.

Christian Gustafson said...

Notice how the SPX in March is drawing an almost perfect fractal of the daily in late 2015.

We still head up, from this support or the lower one.

Agree with this ZH piece on the France.

Hugh Jazole said...

BTFD!

Hugh Jazole said...

Welp, todays low gave us about 3% below the highs. Is that it or are we going to get a proper 5%?

T.Berry said...

either way hugh, market is going much higher. no worries over a 2% difference. buy and hold works 100% of time especially when you price average.

love seeing the don fail :) o'care is here to stay like it or not.

T.Berry said...

uvxy is a sucker bear buy. lol

TSE said...

The Fourth Turning was long ago preceded by Thomas Cole, who painted the Course of Empire, from 1833-36.

We now stand between "The Consummation of Empire" and "Destruction"

http://www.explorethomascole.org/tour/items/69/series/

OR - the fourth turning leads to destruction.

"There is the moral of all human tales;
'Tis but the same rehearsal of the past.
First Freedom and then Glory—when that fails,
Wealth, vice, corruption—barbarism at last.
And History, with all her volumes vast,
Hath but one page."

From CG's link: "Except when the old system can no longer be maintained.
Hence the crisis. On the one hand the rock — a system that can no longer be maintained and, therefore, is rapidly moving into complete collapse."

YEP! When the electricity disappears and all sewage systems fail:

The first epidemic of a waterborne disease probably was caused by an infected caveman relieving himself in waters upstream of his neighbors.

Perhaps the entire clan was decimated, or maybe the panicky survivors packed up their gourds and fled from the “evil spirits” inhabiting their camp to some other place.

As long as people lived in small groups, isolated from each other, such incidents were sporadic. But as civilization progressed, people began clustering into cities. They shared communal water, handled unwashed food, stepped in excrement from casual discharge or spread as manure, used urine for dyes, bleaches, and even as an antiseptic.

As cities became crowded, they also became the nesting places of waterborne, insect borne, and skin -to-skin infectious diseases that spurted out unchecked and seemingly at will. Typhus was most common, reported Thomas Sydenham, England’s first great physician, who lived in the 17th century and studied early history. Next came typhoid and relapsing fever, plague and other pestilential fever, smallpox and dysentery’s-the latter a generic class of disease that includes what’s known as dysentery, as well as cholera.

The ancients had no inkling as to the true cause of their misery. People believed divine retribution caused plagues and epidemics, or else bad air, or conjunction of the planets and stars, any and all of these things.

Ignorance Ain’t Bliss! How else to explain healthy people suddenly falling dead within hours and soldiers struck down with no signs of wounds? What else would cause such excruciating deaths, accompanied by delirium or hallucination, the body wracked by yellow or green or black vomit or excreta; or covered with obscene black boils, terrible red rushes or ghastly blue pallor? Why else would such sickness remain for months, then leave suddenly and not reappear till years later? Or perhaps it was replaced by a plague more deadly.

http://theplumber.com/plagues-epidemics/

Don't drink the water - Amigo!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQrbd0VWxBU

Hugh Jazole said...

I was just reminded of this site. Might be one to ad to your links CG.

http://ml-implode.com



T.Berry said...

hugh, may have seen bottom this am. sell off was way overdone imo.
dont think much more downside. this mkt continues to show strength. acting like the secular it is : )

T.Berry said...

crash must be going to happen next month. or the next lol

T.Berry said...

secular bull in month 85 and counting......not even half way home yet.