Thursday, January 5, 2017

Bah, next window probably March FOMC

I've seen this count from some other E-W charters, and now am seeing the reason in it.

The peaking RSI on the daily is our hint that it is the 3rd wave in the series for this long, agonizing ending-diagonal since the 1810 SPX low.

This chart looks to the 3/15 FOMC as the spark to end this mess.  There are a few good intermediate trades before then.  I'm looking for a short off a 2300 SPX high in the next few days, but very conservative options, no crash puts.

As always, patience will get this thing in the end.

SPX

2 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Mea culpa -- no failed 5th, this thing has time and room to run yet.

T.Berry said...

much much eaiser to make money going long and holding in a secular bull cg. if you have a long term (5-10 years) timeframe buy pullbacks and average. you cant lose! in the history of the stock market it has never not come back. like hugh said wait for a bargain like a 5% selloff to get in. the economy right now has to be one of the strongest in years. record home prices, car sales, stock market, consumer confidence, low inflation, strong dollar, 4.4% unemployment. the slight risk is the economy really starts to overheat. which if that happens the fed will step in and get under control. plus the big don isn't going to let stocks crash. : )