Thursday, November 24, 2016

Now we chill out waiting for the reversal

We hit the top of the big megaphone, we're still hearing this stupid narrative that $1T of infrastructure spending now will somehow give us inflation, after all we have thrown up in desperation thus far.  Of course, the inflation already happened, over decades, so to expect it now is just insipid or deceptive.

At some point the headline makers will figure out that Trump's infrastructure gambit is an effort to trade debt for concrete things (as opposed to financial industry graft), while we still can.

The 35-year bond bull has reached its terminus.  Now we get to experience reality again!

Once we go, all the chart destinations for support and resistance fall into place.  The Italy referendum is the next big hurdle.  Burn down the disco.


Thursday, November 17, 2016

Charts 11-17

We need a big Friday to make our topping target -- 2236 SPX -- by next Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Czech lives matter!

Wednesday's Durables number announces the next recession.

"We Are the People"

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Best. Week. Ever.

We welcome the new Age of Trump as he takes his rightful place as Emperor of All Mankind.  It will be a true golden age, ripe at last for shorting bloated equities into the dirt and taking profits in a wheelbarrow.

At last, the era of Trump deflation is at hand!

The RUT, SPX, NDX, DJIA are gyrating in different directions as we register the instability building as a confirmed "Hindenburg Omen".  At last we have the setup for a final all-time high on the S&P 500, with plausible areas of support and resistance all the way down.  There are some sweet trades ahead, folks.

SPX daily 1Y

For now, if you voted Trump/Pence this week, even if your vote was wasted because you live among Bolsheviks, pat yourself on the back and enjoy, enjoy the delicious misery of the Left.

Schadenfreude is a beautiful thing.

In 10 weeks Trump will be Lord and Master of the Free World!

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

The World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump

And it's all over ... Donald J. Trump has been elected the 45th President of these United States of America.  Thankfully, the sharp personal contrasts during the campaign spared us from technocratic debates about plans and policy, with the CBO weighing in occasionally to vet the numbers of one "plan" or another.

Because narrow policy does not matter.  At the end of the Long Credit Cycle, policy is nothing.  Soon enough we will be at the mercy of the forces of wild nature in the bond markets, the lifeblood of our abstracted civil society.

The deflationary spiral is a feature, not a bug.  Our money came to us ex nihilo, and back there it shall go, as debt-defaults mount and Irving Fisher's nightmare is realized.  The strategy to prop up asset values until growth and animal spirits return is a terrible failure.  Now we have to face the consequences of the even greater malinvestment of capital than before, and the experience will be brutal.

The object, the great task, the World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump is to keep the United States whole, to maintain its order and integrity as we pass through the great crisis of Kondratieff winter on the credit cycle.  Debts that cannot be paid -- won't be paid -- and that includes perks like Social Security, defined-benefit plans, pensions, your bank account.  They are all dust, as we will learn soon enough.  Guess what -- Donald already understands this, he knows we are dead broke.

Trump is in Abraham Lincoln's shoes now; his job is to preserve the Union, to reassert the Republic, and to enable us to survive as a nation.  Debt-deflation will trigger a monetary collapse and final implosion of the fiat $USD, causing widespread disorder and the destruction of many of our institutions.

Browse the S&P 500 for a moment.  How many of these debt-burdened companies will survive such an event?  How about you?  How will you manage?  What are your plans?

Specialization and the division of labor are an easy bet that works out well most of the time.  But when things go sideways, you're left hanging as a cog in the Great Machine.  There is no nice way to unwind modernity -- see James Howard Kunstler's novels for an idea of what that might be like.

There is another system after the 20th Century experiment in debt-backed money, maybe even an older, more honest and real one that we left behind.  We may get there, if we are lucky, after the current system collapses.  Donald Trump's sacred duty is to shepherd us through this coming Time of Troubles, to keep our once great nation intact, whole, and secure as it passes from empire.



Thursday, November 3, 2016

Maybe Trump just confirms the New Bear Market

Something occurred to me today, when the Donald Trump indicated a Goldman Yalie for Treasury Secretary, that maybe his election won't actually crash the markets right away.

Maybe they will actually try to make it work for a bit.  It will be very bearish in the short-term, and work into a larger decline with the rate hike coming in the December FOMC.  But there are all sorts of support levels on the chart now, so we might as well use them.  

Tomorrow morning, expecting that we will bounce off the 200DMA SPX and rally into Election Day this Tuesday.  A Trump win confirms the bear and starts chopping us lower to a bottom around 1980 SPX the week of Thanksgiving.  

The larger drama plays out through 2017 and into 2018.  Not having World War III is actually comparatively quite bullish.  Final low at the long-term trendline from 1987 (year).