Friday, September 9, 2016

Charts 9-9: No breakdown just yet

We are still well inside the ending-diagonal bearish wedge shape up here in the clouds, still looking for that elusive final move north to mark The Top of It All.

September FOMC looks like one last hold on the rate question, although I suspect that the Fed's dead hand will finally be forced in the November meeting, for great justice!

all you need to know about the S&P 500

We're roasting and eating our neighbors for Christmas dinner this year.  I'm looking forward to long pig served with Czech bread dumplings, washed down with a sharp Pilsner or a perhaps a searing Pacific Northwest IPA.


Christian Gustafson said...

Hiking in November also suggests that the Fed is throwing Hillary under the bus ... or, they will have already given up on her, the damage from the scandals being simply to great to overcome (with votes from illegals, illiterates, and illusory voters).

Permabear Doomster said...

Hmm, a Nov'2nd rate hike is something I've not seen anyone else remotely consider. Its a provoking scenario.


For me, your collapse wave scenario will become valid on any move to the sp'2050s or lower. Ironically, that is barely 3% lower than the Friday close.

... and yes.. no rate hike at the Sept' FOMC.. with the sp'2200 still seemingly due.

Have a good weekend CG.

Christian Gustafson said...

Well we have to pull out of this dive first -- that's the work of this week, to find support before a final low into September FOMC.

I fixed a label on the chart -- an important trendline was mis-labelled. It's important because it represents the rally since the 2011 lows at 1074 SPX, and all the supports and interventions since then.

Kissing back to it, into a surprise (forced?) rate hike in November represents a complete rejection of the reflation efforts by CBs worldwide. The market would instantly go no-bid and crash into the depths.

Bryan Franco said...

The rise in rates globally means to me that the catalyst isn't / wouldn't be Trump. Kuroda and Draghi don't need Trump's approval, or do they?

Christian Gustafson said...

Maybe as Trump gains traction and advantage over that horrid, infirm woman, they will see the writing on the wall, and the coordinated global CB action will come to an end.

Once it's America First! it will also be Japan First!, China first! and the rest.

Globalism ends with every nation reasserting its forgotten self-interest. That may pose a problem for your pension and other promises that cannot be kept.

Christian Gustafson said...

A Field Guide to Hillary’s Parkinson’s Disease

Bicycle said...

if you are bearish the stock market you are in the basket of deplorables

Unknown said...

After reviewing the posted link to "A Field Guide to Hillary’s Parkinson’s Disease" - gotta wonder why any young person would want to elect this person to power.

But then, again, I guess they have been *HOOD - WINKED* and *MIS-LEAD* - which seems to indicate the majority of the populace.

Teaching students things that ain't so - and rolling out senile and controlled candidates for offices of Profit and Trust is just "The American Way" - until it ain't so.

Just to be a Teenager again:


A said...

hey Christian, old Denniger acolyte here. Any way to work the date from this tin into your count?

Bicycle said...

HRC just fainted at 9/11 memorial

Christian Gustafson said...

A, is that someone's art project? A test of viral meme transmission? 9/14, who knows.

Hillary vapor-lock in lower Manhattan has me worried, though.

Alex said...

Christian, that was my first thought as well. For what it's worth, the Facebook poster claims it is not an art project or marketing. Plenty of speculation on it, but one of the more interesting is that the countdown is a data dump. At least the time frame is short enough no one has to wait long for the hoopla.

Christian Gustafson said...

Duh! A data dump, of course. Makes perfect sense.

Assange and friends have plenty of dry powder left for October and maybe September surprises.

Bicycle said...

The video of her collapsing is crazy.

they are lifting her into the van

Bicycle said...

Her supposed medical handler opens the door of the van

Christian Gustafson said...

Oh, she just "overheated ", that's all. Coulda happened to anyone.

81 degrees in the NYC ATM.

Bryan Franco said...

Heat intolerance is a known symptom of advanced stage Parkinson's. The Left's denial of the implications of a series of impossibly independent events is comical.