Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Can we spend the next 4 weeks topping out?

We may have a decent count and setup for a final rally high off new all-time highs on the S&P 500, about 4 weeks from today, with an anemic and flaccid gain of 100 more handles.

I believe that from here we would find our first support and bounce in the 1740 SPX region in mid-July.

The new gig is great!  No regrets at all here, none.

SPX 04-12

14 comments:

Hugh Jazole said...

Hey look, the IRS is up to no good!

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/irs-chief-agency-encourages-illegal-immigrant-theft-of-ssns-to-file-tax-returns/article/2588288



Bicycle said...

DJIA

Looking for mid 18k's, then a very rapid, almost untradable move straight to 16500 and below.

T.Berry said...

2% to new high, q1 earnings, 1 trillion short, no rate hike till at least december and oil moving up, this market rally could last a while especially after we hit new highs. 2016 is shaping up to be a good year after the rough start, things are back on track.

Bryan Franco said...

TB. You represent the long only mutual fund manager's union, no? I hear their dues are set to go way up.

T.Berry said...

nope bf. very content with long term investing. it works for me. average in over long haul and you win. never forget, stock market always comes back. have at least 15 year horizon so i'm not worried. plan on retiring early too.

Hugh Jazole said...

Any takers on UVXY?

Hugh Jazole said...

BPSPX looking more and more like it did in August.

T.Berry said...

wonder how many of the 1 trillion short started to cover :)

at this point , if by some reason the fed does raise before december given the strength of the economy it will be viewed this time as bullish in my opinion and this rally could go on for months. either way, if youre in for the long term this market is going higher that;s for sure.

Bicycle said...

that move in oil was awesome. this is a clear wave 5.

and the top BB on a 5Y chart of the DJIA currently sits right at 18328. I like that for a big short right before FOMC. Just 300 more DJIA points to go. 5 more trading days. We can do it!

T.Berry said...

higher oil is better for the economy (more jobs, better paying jobs). offset gasoline a buck higher as most have near record high 401ks and portfolios and home equity values getting back towards record amount and with relatively low unemployment. with oil only at 40 and the market under 2% from record highs, the long term market upside looks very promising.

keeping all-in bet on that we see more than one more new high :)
result coming soon :)

Hugh Jazole said...

CG, didn't you say UVXY would be the buy of a lifetime around 10 bucks? We're getting there very quickly!

Bicycle said...

now only about ~250 DJIA points to go

this is our blowoff... kiss goodbye... whatever you want to call it. right before April FOMC yaaaaaay

Bryan Franco said...

Gold, treasuries, consumer essentials, utilities, and yen among the highest returners this year. This should not end well for equities.

Hugh Jazole said...

"This should not end well for equities." Agreed. Every time the market starts to get any traction, oil and gold rapidly start outperforming. The relationship between stocks and oil is poorly understood. It is hilarious to watch people go back and forth on oil, oil down = good, oil up = good! How about oil STABLE = good!!!