Of course, before then we have three releases of the Q1 2016 GDP, with a final report at the end of June, as well as preliminary estimates of Q2 GDP in July and August.
So there is much that will happen between then and now. But the softness seen in industrial numbers and now services is very real, and it will only accelerate if the market rolls over late this week and loses the 1800 level. If this should happen, consumer spending will decline very rapidly and quickly guarantee the next recession.
The next recession, which could be first made official on the morning of September 29th.
This, into a hotly contested election, with candidates openly calling for auditing the Fed and ending such elite insider games as the QE.
Into the Fall market "crash season". Into a period where everyone knows the jig is up and it's time to leave.
So, while I know it's very early, I just wanted to call that out. File it away in the back of your mind.
Here's a short-term wave count and test that the market will have this week, Thursday or Friday.
|SPX 03-06 20D|
And this is sort of a worst-case scenario for 2016, as well as a suggestion of where September 29th could fall in the grand scheme of things.
|SPX 03-06 2016 worst-case scenario|