Friday, January 29, 2016

Charts 01-29: Breakout on death of the Yen

Glad to see the BOJ getting on board now.

Well, it's about time!  More, please.  Thank you, gentlemen.

Package for David Stockman
SPX 01-29


29 comments:

Bicycle said...

Personal Consumption

Disposable Income

Christian Gustafson said...

Apologies for the comment moderation, no worries, it all goes through.

The troll Scott Macneillage is still in his manic phase, even after being asked politely to leave.

Straight to /dev/null with his stuff, doesn't even get read.

Hugh Jazole said...

I can't decide if he's trolling or serious half the time. He misses a major corrective uptrend and brags anyway!

Christian Gustafson said...

Corrective, Hugh?

You sure about that? One more high, and all ...

Bicycle said...

Now here's one for the ages. I was left stunned. It's just sitting right there out in the open!

Net Exports

OMG...

Hugh Jazole said...

I'm not sure of anything at this point. I am trying to figure out when to jump ship, on the small long position I took recently. I would be surprised if we even make it to 2000.

Bicycle said...

you need to be starting a garden. a big one

and splitting firewood. lots of it

Hugh Jazole said...

I rent an apartment for the time being. There is a community garden not far from here though.

Bicycle said...

claim it. fortify the perimeter and dont let anyone get within 300 yards

Hugh Jazole said...

Nah, not my style.

Hugh Jazole said...

How do you guys think real estate will fare the next couple of years?

Christian Gustafson said...

Mark it all zero!

john said...

Sitting here in the land of the rising sun, waiting for the yen and or yuan to explode
I do think kyle bass will be proven right on the yen
Someday this wars going to end

Christian Gustafson said...

I commented earlier that all of the CBs -- including Japan -- had paused or pulled back, waiting for China to act, which they did. They were not going to sit back in deflationary hell while China sat atop their hoard of FX.

Devaluing the Yuan has the salutary effect of destroying Chinese equities and threatening the civil order over there. Remember, Chinese mobs riot and break things when they get mad, they do not have the new opiates of HELOCs and NFL and HGTV and Food Channel to distract and pacify the unwashed masses.

When Xi Jinping pledged to fight this thing, and started throwing ten-billion $$ bundles into the incinerator, this was the signal for other CBs to return to the field and do what they could.

They will continue down this path, until something breaks and they can't do it any longer. That and a long-term wave count is why I think we still have new highs ahead.

And when it does break, VIX will surge above 30 in a heartbeat, and make a beeline for the 40s.

I think I'm getting the fear ...

Christian Gustafson said...

How long can we maintain?

Depriv said...

So far the actual upward movement would be ~ ideal for a fourth wave. I think a new (local) low has slightly higher probability at this point than a(n immediate) new high.

After that, if this one down was a 'C', then there can be a new ATH. If it was a first wave, then...
The point is, that I think it'll be decided later.

Hugh Jazole said...

Here it comes, will this ramp be the last?

Bryan Franco said...

Cg - for your last comment, there is a Viagra joke for the market in there somewhere.

Bryan Franco said...

Seems that most (including me) are looking for 1970s on S&P before heading lower. Wonder if we either don't get there or make new ATHs per CG.

Christian Gustafson said...

Now we're at a critical juncture.

If support holds here (we threw a pin at the channel wall today), we have an inverse head-and-shoulders on the board that would target a full retrace of the January decline.

With a neckline at 1948 SPX, it points to a high of 2084, the upper edge of the rally channel in about 2 weeks.

Hugh Jazole said...

I bailed this morning. Lame trade + 2%, meh. Looking mighty shaky.

Hugh Jazole said...

I don't know CG. +2000 is looking like a reach, 1930-1950 seems like the line in the sand.

john said...

This is not the explosion of the yen I'm looking for

Bicycle said...

Nasdaq almost back to 52 week lows.

Anyone remember that chart I posted about a year ago about where SF real estate was headed? Dreams are being shattered...

Oil, China, Tech. Who's next? Banks?

Christian Gustafson said...

The tape is delightfully ambiguous. There are two head-and-shoulders chart patterns in play:

1. a bearish H&S off the 1872 neckline, targeting the 1800 SPX area

2. a bullish inverse H&S off a ~1948 neckline, targeting a full retrace of the January decline

You have the Yen rallying hard against the most extreme Kuroda BOJ policies yet.

ZeroHedge had a piece about China's report on FX reserves out this weekend, that it could come in very strong and set off a huge short-squeeze. It would certainly get the Soros CNY shorts off their backs for a bit.

Hugh Jazole said...

"a bearish H&S off the 1872 neckline, targeting the 1800 SPX area" That's the right one.

Hugh Jazole said...

You can almost hear the air coming out of this balloon.

Christian Gustafson said...

Approaching 20 posts now this week from the banished "scott".

I don't think he understands, nothing he posts even is read. He's shouting into the ether, it goes straight to /dev/null.

Go find a new place to play already.

Hugh Jazole said...

That poor guy. He really needs his own blog, but I don't think he has the constitution for it.