If we have one more 5th wave left to go, it will confound the bears and take us all the way to about May 10, at SPX 2185, touching the top edge of a megaphone.
Weekly candles with RSI make the case here:
|SPX weekly candles|
Big-picture, I don't think China has any choice here but to attempt to defend the Yuan, at least until they deplete their foreign currency reserves to the point where it is hopeless and they buckle down.
All supports down to 1820 and even 1814 SPX are now blown, so I would argue that the target of the first true impulse down off new highs will target the 1740 area, with a tepid bounce.
By the way, there are plenty of Elliotticians out there who would suggest that the original bounce from the 2009 lows was wave 1, meaning that we have an enormous wave 5 ahead, reaching 2500+ on the S&P. Thanks to RSI and fibs, I would argue that the epic rally counts ABC instead of 12345.