Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Let's set our sights a little lower

2138 SPX is mid-wedge this Friday with the New Moon, a new all-time-high, and the 1.618x extension of the 910 point crash in the 2007-2009 cycle.

After-hours /ES has broken free of the triangle; expect a gap and run tomorrow.

sleeping bums on the D-line bus early this morning

And an updated chart.

SPX daily 12-08

29 comments:

Hugh Jazole said...

The colder weather always brings the bums into the trains. I'm surprised they're actually on the seats and not under them. The sleeping ones don't worry me too much. It's the ones foaming at the mouth, screaming about Satan or the FBI that freak me out.

Christian Gustafson said...

I had to scramble for a seat in the back; the entire bus was packed like this. I think King County Metro lets these people ride all night, back and forth to West Seattle.

I was heading to work really early -- a 3 a.m. bus.

Christian Gustafson said...

And we have a golden cross pending on the 50 and 200 DMA.

The 50 already crossed the 100.

Hugh Jazole said...

This is it folks, get the popcorn ready.

Bicycle said...

income taxes

scott said...

As the reality of the stupidly desperate DD Dow merger settles in today people will start to get a sense of how ridiculously overpriced all assets are and how little liquidity exists in relation to debt service.

The "I paid what for that" moment is here...

scott said...

Hugh, prepare to be not only disappointed, BUT RATTLED...lol

scott said...

How much popcorn did you pop Hugh?

scott said...

U.S. stocks soar on DuPont-Dow Chemical merger talk, oil rally
MarketWatch‎ - 1 hour ago

lol - STOCKS SOAR! FAA should really look into the maintenance schedule on those high fliers.

man o man this is all about stuffing the indexes with ringers.

do you know how dramatic this reversal really is since DD is still up over 12% and Dow Chem up over 10%!

Hugh Jazole said...

Ha! Thankfully I didn't buy any popcorn yet! Craziest I've seen the market in years, fun to watch.

scott said...

so are you just a fantasy footballer or do you actually have skin in the game?

Hugh Jazole said...

401K over 80% cash for most of 2015, so not too much skin. I missed some of the earlier uptrend, but I'm fine with it.

Christian Gustafson said...

All that matters at the moment is which way the obvious triangle on the SPX is pointed.

If up, we get a surge, possibly to new (if brief) highs. If down, an acceleration event.

scott said...

I think whatever triangle you are seeing is a mirage...

time to smell the burning bids...

Bicycle said...

CG there is also a smaller triangle on the Nasdaq since early Dec that just broke solidly today. Nasdaq composite seems very ill.

scott said...

the data has been screaming this move and hope and magical thinking are all that have postponed it this far.

I've listed most all the evidence. The links are still active..

Hugh Jazole said...

Great call Scott. I just can't see this as a true top though. The mom and pop crowd are very complacent, but they aren't exactly bullish. It seems like we need to get the majority on fire again before a proper top.

scott said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
scott said...

Hugh, how can you say this when you are 80% cash? Sentiment is a BS indicator, like looking at skyscrapers or magazine covers! lol

Again I implore people to LOOK AT THE DATA! it's all right there.

Hugh Jazole said...

Oh I agree we're close, I've just never seen a major top set up this way. Not saying it can't happen.

scott said...

2007/8

https://www.flickr.com/photos/75188609@N07/23008729843/in/dateposted-public/

now

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&st=2013-04-30&en=2015-12-09&&id=p13325803079&a=427965546

so? look pretty close to me

Hugh Jazole said...

http://unemploymentdata.com/employment/oil-jobs-lost-250000-and-counting-texas-likely-to-see-massive-layoffs-soon/


scott said...

Hugh I posted the employment chart several days ago. Perceived (not actual) peak employment means market top...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24%24EMPLOY&p=M&st=1999-01-13&en=2015-12-04&id=p27705900349&a=435565078

Hugh Jazole said...

Cover for the Fed not to raise yet again. How convenient.

Christian Gustafson said...

It's a little different from that, Hugh.

/ES weakness has correlated strongly now with $USD weakness. I don't see why a hike next week would not send the $USD straight up, with carry-currencies like JPY going to new lows, and buy programs running like mad. Speculators who had shorted ahead of the FOMC on a hike call would also be covering.

Draw a channel from the 2020 and 2116 highs on SPX, to the 1871 low. We're still in wave 4 country.

A hike next week could actually rally us sharply through EOY.

Bicycle said...

...and thereby giving them confidence to raise another 25bps at Jan FOMC...

Bicycle said...

10 year volatility

rd said...

Here is another count for the Domed House - has peak projected for May 16



http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2015/12/stock-market-update-and-some-lindsay.html

Hugh Jazole said...

Sooo tedious.