Friday, December 4, 2015

At long last, a blow-off top in equities?

Can we make it all the up to 2170 SPX by the New Moon next Friday, December 11?  Since 25 bps from the Fed is priced-in and all?

This would complete the rally off the August 2015 lows and touch the top of a megaphone shape drawn earlier this year.

Let's put a bow on this for the Christmas.

SPX 12-04


56 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

The upper WEEKLY Bollinger Band for the SPX is up above 2160, too.

Now that would be quite a prize!

Bryan Franco said...

Yes. And how about a long term bottom forming in gold miners... Stabilization during the deflationary collapse we are in, and leading the inflationary ww3 scenario?

T.Berry said...

not expecting it to move that fast to 2170 in a week, sometime in feb would be more reasonable. prefer slow and steady ahead. unless of course fed decideds to start raising quicker : )

Christian Gustafson said...

2080 SPX was the .618 retrace of the move from 2104 down to 2042.

We could regain 2100 as early as today. This would thoroughly demoralize any remaining bears and continue into next week.

T.Berry said...

cant imagine being a bear during a secular bull mkt.

Christian Gustafson said...

The top of the actual E-D structure as I have drawn it is actually up at 2190 SPX at the end of this week. The trendline connecting waves 1 and 3.

Now wouldn't that be something! It would actually overthrow the megaphone from early 2015 by fair amount.

Christian Gustafson said...

Here is an excellent summary of the larger context we Americans find ourselves in today.

Hugh Jazole said...

That's a great post CG. I read the UN 2030 Agenda the other night, talk about terrifying. These Utopian nutters will never stop.

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld

Christian Gustafson said...

Thanks, Hugh.

If this scenario is going to play out, we'll need to see a sizable rally this week -- 80 handles on the S&P! -- in the context of declining volume, weakening breadth, the sort of divergences that make David Stockman all hot and bothered.

Then I'll be happy to short with aggression and the old ultra-violence into the end of the year.

You know, I have become much more enthusiastic about the term "asshole" after reading Tom Wolfe's hilarious essay "The Street Fighters" many years ago.

We are huge fans of the man here in Deflation Land, particularly his essays and cultural analysis on the last 4 decades of the America.

I was lucky to see him speak twenty years ago at Orchestra Hall in Chicago; I recently stumbled across the ticket for this event used as a bookmark in some volume or other.

Christian Gustafson said...

Interesting that the full magazine text of Tom Wolfe's "Radical Chic" is available online. I'm not enough of an expert to know how this version differs from the one published with "Mau-mauing the Flak Catchers".

Hmm, looks like the text for the 2nd essay can be found here.

Could either of these be written today and published by a major NY press?

scott said...

NO new highs...2073 break is on tap.

Vol Osc, Absolute Breadth,BPSPX and HYHL never confirmed Friday insanity. Will be sold and is being sold.

charts to follow! Merry Christmas fed slaves!

Hugh Jazole said...

"2073 break is on tap" We'll be back over 2090 by the end of the week.

Bicycle said...

the great Chanukah WTI crash of 2015

horde your olive oil, only one light per house hold

scott said...

keep dreaming Hugh:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYUD&p=D&st=2015-08-18&en=today&id=p52111464766&a=367854604

the lower Keltner on the Vo Osc chart is around 1950 but that will obviously decline as price does so think this is wave 3 of 5 wave decline that bounces below the august lows...

Hugh Jazole said...

I'll see ya back here Fri.

scott said...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&st=2015-10-04&en=today&id=p48223469667&a=428878359

Vix has been giving MAJOR sell signals since august and price has ignored - but today IS the day that the VIX is heard loud and clear...

Absolute Breadth:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/75188609@N07/23561570406/in/dateposted-public/

Also, markets top at "full" employment - the don't rally at that point...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24%24EMPLOY&p=M&st=1999-01-13&en=2015-12-04&id=p27705900349&a=435565078

scott said...

Hugh, it always astounds me how willing people believe narrative over perception.

Have you even bothered to load the chart links I've offered? Do you know what a VO Osc is?

Friday the FED WILL BE KING and you a confirmed serf of the realm! lol

Bicycle said...

the question now is not if or when rates will rise but how much will they raise next week

WTI already pricing in rate increase next week... only question is how much and how much farther does it go

also seeing new triangle of deaths forming on several indices from early Nov

scott said...

additionally, Mid-Caps, Small Caps, and the BIG BEAR INDEX NYA never road the Mario Cart on Friday...lol

scott said...

triangles of DEATH! My MAN!

Christian Gustafson said...

The commodity damage is shocking and awesome to behold. It's incredible how the indices have held up during this rout. Commodities are real world demand, where the rubber meets the road.

Pull up a chart for a blue-collar company like KMI, look at the long-term damage, staggering.

Now look at the candles for recent declines, including today's. They all have a similar slope. These aren't wild impulsive waves, they're pressure bring released, almost orderly. What then takes us back up, I don't know, but it's still in play, until it's not.

We're just not quite there yet. But everyone knows all the signs are, the rot and the underlying weakness.

A bear would "want" a new high here if only to simplify the technical picture for this past year.

scott said...

THE BIG BEAR INDEX

2 years of no growth and a MASSIVE HS pattern near to triggering.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=W&st=2012-11-22&en=today&id=p96283418106&a=429428877

Bicycle said...

also please notice 1 year trend on WTI which we are solidly through now having blasted to $37, it was probably a descending triangle, target is likely under $20 bbl

Christmas coal from the Fed, I still like to dream about a 100bps raise coming in a surprise this weekend before the FOMC, like good old times

Christian Gustafson said...

Oh snap! Should I go home?

scott said...

CG - "a bear" would want the massive HS on the NYA to trigger.

No new highs.

By the way, I trade. I don't usually use bull and bear to describe anything.

Seeing no new highs and a 5th wave down to well below the august lows doesn't make me "a bear".

Makes me sane.

scott said...

here's a good indicator for what to expect next.

gave you the Oct bottom and gave me my short position that everyone here poopooed...lol

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYHLR%3A%24NAHLR&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p19149338771&a=427967638

scott said...

the Bullard bounce in real time!

scott said...

the fed has been "surprised" and "inaccurate"! who would of thought? lol

why are people still following sociopathic mass murders? Y Y Y Y ???

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-bullard-idUSKBN0TQ26120151207#vZRlbGiSz2JXiqku.97

Christian Gustafson said...

Next stop, 2150 on the S&P 500?

scott said...

as with Hugh CG, the dream is dead! as is the FED...

2073 clearly as "them" scared.

But the story is the NYA and the patterns showing up there. How you think new highs are coming when the broad market, trans, mid caps and small caps are all in a bear market is beyond me.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&st=2015-07-17&en=today&id=p31359914957&a=427965546

Hugh Jazole said...

We'll close in the green.

scott said...

and Hugh picks up the inhalants at the close! lol

Christian Gustafson said...

I'm counting on NYA to provide a nice fat divergence for us when we do wrap it up here. New highs on zero breadth, no volume, Hindenburgs -- that's what we want to see here.

We have seen today's tape before, the same drip-dip selloff, the familiar slope of the decline, the feeling-out of support.

Scott, you've got to understand that I'm only bullish because I'm really bearish.

scott said...

CG - here is a guy that knows what a VO Osc is. I learned most of my cycles applications from him and Terry Laundry. So, The divergences on the Value Line, the Equal weight, the Trans, the NYA, etc., etc. etc., are not going to come home to roost, they are roosting and pooing and clucking!

http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/1215fc-pesc.htm

enjoy

George said...

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." - JMK

Christian Gustafson said...

If we look over at the /ES daily tonight, we also see a possible 4th wave triangle, after which we would see an explosive 5th wave north.

Look @ the initial move off the August 24th lows -- sharp and fast.

The proposed 5th would be like this, making new ATHs in just a couple of days.

scott said...

thanks for the worn aphorism George. CG - explosion or implosion? lol

I'll ask this in all seriousness again and then stop trying:

Does anyone here actual load the chart links I offer and try to understand the DATA?

Clearly "the market" is not following the script everyone here is reading...

scott said...

I continue to marvel at the changing time frames and targets of those calling for new highs...

Trans fell off a cliff which will stop the dippers here.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRAN&p=D&st=2015-07-12&en=2015-12-08&id=p37906395929&a=391535579

scott said...

vix continues to flaunt MAJOR equity sell signals...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&st=2015-09-29&en=2015-12-08&id=p37870787182&a=428878359

Christian Gustafson said...

Sure we do, Scott. Of course we do. And I appreciate you contributing to the discussion.

There are dozens of indicators flashing red now, from commodities, to lagging breadth and low volume, to the past peak of margin debt, and yet, here we are.

We're still waiting for true impulse waves down from a high, and not just the usual 5-wave terminal "C" moves we have seen all this time. August 2015 failed to set a new low, so we bucketed it as some degree of W4 and moved on.

Yet we're still not convinced that the top is in. Against all good sense and general decency, we may still get our new ATH.

And there are other wave counters out there who would argue that the next decline we see is yet another W4, with even higher highs to follow.

This thing is a real beast and when it finally dies, it won't want to give anyone a free ride.

/ES and SPX appear to be sporting a triangle, the breakout from which is quite violent (but which way?)

Hugh Jazole said...

No way we have a top here. UVXY just a few bucks above the 52wk low, massive complacency of the majority.

scott said...

Again Hugh, keep dreaming. Vix says otherwise and so does this diamond pattern that just broke on the NYA...

LOOK AT THE DATA! lol Narrative is not fact.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&st=2015-07-17&en=today&id=p44138582322&a=427965546

scott said...

why would you use a 2X etf as a guide anyway? Break of 17489 is on tap for the Dow and 2052 will give on the SPX

scott said...

well as the supports break here you'll get impulsiveness :)

Hugh Jazole said...

You might be right Scott. The market is obviously at an inflection point. We'll meet back here Fri and see how the week concludes.

Bicycle said...

the day destroys the night
night divides the day

Bicycle said...

UMich inflation expectations

Bicycle said...

Crude volatility

Hugh Jazole said...

"UMich inflation expectations" That could be a good contrarian indicator. Perhaps in the short term the worst of the de/disinflation is over.

Bicycle said...

always love to hear opposing viewpoints Hugh

but the UMich chart just fell out of a 35-year old triangle

can't be ignored

it means we are soon going to see an event that will change the inflation expectations of the populace to be deeply negative

which probably means a combination of the following

- continued insane oil price crash
- equity crash
- huge spike in mass layoff events

Hugh Jazole said...

I agree on the last two, not so much on the oil.

Hugh Jazole said...

Hey CG. A friend of mine just sent me a video of the most insane car chase in Seattle. Did you witness any of that?

Christian Gustafson said...

That chase ran through the University District and finished on the Northeast side of town.

I live on the Northwest side, north of Ballard.

The article I saw wasted no time in questioning whether the SPD should have shot him. An easy call, IMO.

Hugh Jazole said...

Apparently a cop must be near death in order to justify shooting anyone anymore. Cops are held to a near superhuman standard and are expected to police people who are not held to ANY standard.

Bicycle said...

rail freight

Sarah Bell said...

Scott'

I load your Charts and completely agree with you. An Economic Disaster is just around the corner. They may hold these Markets up until after the new Year but this Market is going down big time.