Thursday, November 19, 2015

One more high? Quick comparison to 2007 top

Draghi speaks tonight.  What will he say?

SPX

15 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

First!

Looks good! Airtight analysis!

Bill Bober said...

537!? Oh come on!

Christian Gustafson said...

That's 2017, Bill. You're going to love it.

Bill Bober said...

Can we get UVXY under the 52wk low?

Christian Gustafson said...

Lower daily BB has leveled off @ $23, so a new 52wk low would be about right.

scott said...

this is where the cookie crumbles and the ice cream cone tumbles...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYUD&p=D&st=2015-08-18&en=today&id=p80001677359&a=367854604

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD%3A%24CPC&p=D&st=2014-12-17&en=2015-11-20&id=p34686939590&a=410852342

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK%3ATLT&p=D&st=2015-03-02&en=today&id=p66991835956&a=427439031

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XVG&p=M&st=1994-01-01&en=today&id=p90686423557&a=402006344

no new highs for the next 5 years - revisit of 2116 was a possibility on hour and 2hour charts but that hope is down

Christian Gustafson said...

Is there an inverted head & shoulders on the board with a neckline of 2086?

Did it just survive a backtest today of the neckline as new support, closing above it @ 2089?

If so, the target of the pattern is 2153 SPX.

I would not want to be holding short into a holiday week.

scott said...

https://www.flickr.com/photos/75188609@N07/23155969355/in/dateposted-public/

looks more like a congested intersection where an accident occurred...

and what of the shooting star doji? 60% reversal especially at the edge of a supposed inv hs

for the inv hs to trigger you need a hammer or solid breakout

the same pattern on the NYA failed hard today and is close to confirming a sell on the daily

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&st=2015-07-17&en=today&id=p76210846983&a=427965546

all the ST charts triggered sells today...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=120&st=2015-10-05&en=today&id=p04685290917&a=391712351

CG - do yourself a favor and look at the NYAD Volume Osc Chart I posted above. Check out the flat line on the Volume Osc (MACD 19,39,1). that divergence is a major sell and negates any perceived INV HS...

let the turkeys LIVE this year! eat a salad and some nuts!

scott said...

oops - meant NYUD Vol Osc Chart! lol not that you'll review it anyway but someone might!

free the TURKEYS!

Vegan givings

T.Berry said...

any doubts about this being the strongest secular ever should be erased today. new ath's coming soon and they likely won't be the last. probably this year too. LOL

Christian Gustafson said...

Probably this year, yes.

The last? Very possibly. But we will be patient and wary.

We still have time to move sideways this week, but what will happen if a Santa Rally brings new highs (2172 SPX?) and gives the Fed cover to hike rates at long last?

WW3 preludes are progressing nicely. When we get to the part when the House of Saud implodes, it will take the petrodollar with it, bring us nominal new highs across the board on things like stocks, bread, and potatoes.

T.Berry said...

2172 sure cg! with record holiday sales this year santa rally should be a strong one. could even start this friday : )

Bryan Franco said...

T. Berry, I wish I were as optimistic as you about... Well... Everything. I would probably live longer.

Tricky Dicky said...

"WW3 preludes are progressing nicely. When we get to the part when the House of Saud implodes, it will take the petrodollar with it, bring us nominal new highs across the board on things like stocks, bread, and potatoes."

The war between the III Percent is also progressing...

"Okay, I just spent my entire day in court. I was served a notice for a hearing for a restraining order and a civil lawsuit from the Kerodins about 3 weeks ago."

http://knuckledraggin.com/2015/11/42480/

Depriv said...

Well, my guess is that it won't go so smoothly. The drop made a definite mark on the monthyl chart, but still not wide enough to be assumed as a 'whole' fourth. It's tempting (and indeed: possible) to count the actual upward movement as a final wave, but right now a 'B' of a fourth might be more fit.

Regarding the previous top used as a reference: my bet is that that one was part of a B/c, so the topping process there was on a lower scale/tf than this one. Can be used as a reference, but only with caution.

Based on your chart this is what I would use as a reference for topping:
http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20151130v01hups1v.png