Friday, October 23, 2015

Central banks around the world

... are all pulling for this one now.  Anything to delay the inevitable.

The case now is that we are repeating 2011, with a low-volume continued rally into the Spring.

Finviz /ES weekly

Of course now we have the commodity implosion and attendant deflation at our doorstep.

Will it matter?

We kissed back the old rally channel this morning.


Will it matter?


Christian Gustafson said...

My pal Pieter has a theory that it takes a POTUS election cycle to paralyze the Fed and allow gravity to work its magic again.

Do bears hibernate now until March?

ruff times said...

Nice call CG on UVXY last week. 26 hit today. I'm not sure why you short here with ECB and BOJ up next. I am underwhelmed by PBOC move. Can't believe to utter smack down in commodities in light of PBOC.

Have you read "The Forgotten Soldier?" I am an Eastern front buff. That book has to be in every library. Not a literary classic, but a great account of the EF nonetheless

benjoyce said...

Any comments for Bo Polney

He thinks that stocks will crash 30-50% in Nov. '15 based on "Jubilee" cycle

Christian Gustafson said...

I think the 2011 tape is very important at this point. Bears are getting very frustrated now -- I'm seeing it in McHugh's newsletters, for sure.

Look at EOY 2011, some volatility late, a possible triangle, and then several more months of low-volume melt-up. Agony. Probably a last round of reverse-splits for the bear ETFs, etc.

Euros are still engaged in QE. US corps are still buying back stock with cheap debt.

Bears are most likely going to have to wait until May/June until we can get under 1900 SPX again.

Anonymous said...

"Bears are most likely going to have to wait until May/June until we can get under 1900 SPX again." How about Dec/Jan?

Christian Gustafson said...

We'll see how seasonality plays out here. Again, look @ the tape for early 2012.

We may be in the usual position of having to wait patiently for the usual bearish divergences to show up on the large-scale charts before looking for another down cycle.

In Elliott terms, this late-summer's fun was some degree of wave 4.