Thursday, October 15, 2015

Can we make it to resistance @2046 into opex?

We are almost there.  It would leave us right at a critical juncture on the charts.

SPX 10-14

... and then Deutsche Bank blew up ...

12 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

BTW, if you missed it overnight, Hilsenrath officially killed rate-hike talk for this year.

So ... NIRP announced at December FOMC?

ruff times said...

Two conflicting issues for me. First and foremost SPY is very overbought here. It would beyond extreme at 2040. At the same time, all carbon life forms are short SPY at this moment. Who's left to sell!

Not a good area for a trade even thought I'm long SDOW at 19.50. I'm contemplating closing it. Regardless, there sure seems like a long bias here even considering the monster ramp of the last two weeks

Christian Gustafson said...

Add the upper daily Bollinger Band SPX to this argument as well -- it's up @ 2044 today.

Lowe BB UVXY @ $30. Probably headed there, high 20s.

Christian Gustafson said...

And, if you swing this way, the Bradley model turn is actually this weekend, according to how this guy reads the tea-leaves.

ruff times said...

Considering how overbought we are, you would think UVXY would muster a run to 45 area. I see your where you are though. It seems a relatively low probability, but 25ish not out of reach. Bias should be long looking at stochastics and the sideways move off bb's.

I'll look into Bradley model. It looks interesting on the surface. Is it accurate? Have a good one.

Christian Gustafson said...

Bradleys are moonbeams and fairy dust. But they occasionally nail big turns.

Laughinggrizzley said...

2060 is the 200 MA, just sayin....

T.Berry said...

got to hit 2046 on the way to 2400 (but not till '16) :) no rate hikes till sometime in '17 and doubt fed does nirp---that would be insane and damper economy. zirp has been working for 7 years so really no need to do anything.

Bryan Franco said...

I think there is a tiny gap in the actual S&P index from August 20-21. Anyone see that or believe it is of any significance? It is right around the upper 2030s. Bears might want a serious rejection around that level. Otherwise it will be more of the usual .. busting head and shoulder patterns on the 60 minute chart with classic bear traps around the neckline for a grind higher to new aths.

T.Berry said...

more ath's coming, think secular bull market.

Christian Gustafson said...

I like that, Bryan.

I was eyeing the 2036 area for some other reasons (guessing where a minor 5th would end up), but a rise to there tomorrow would indeed close the gap from the morning of 8/21 @ 2035 and change.

Christian Gustafson said...

Currency collapse is the only way we break out of this malaise of late modernity and moribund institutions, the only way we return to a real, living, historical existence.

We are historically privileged in that we get to witness this great and terrible event.