Friday, August 21, 2015

Well here's my guess

If the 1971 low holds over the weekend, we have a chance to finish up a domed-top here.

The market would rally 100 handles SPX from here into September opex (rate hike coming), kissing back the old support from below, as well as the bearish overhead trendline.

SPX 3PDH domed-top & drop

17 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Do we re-test anything ... or just fall apart?

Reverend Nihilism said...

A spike in the TRIN that seemed to take FOREVER happened this week. That suggests a near term rally, I'm still with re-test.

Bicycle said...

SOMETHING will be attempted this weekend... even if all they have is jawboning.

Bryan Franco said...

The Russell Micro Cap index, proxied by IWC fell only 50 bps today. I think we get some positive movement by mid Monday through Wednesday. This will present a good opportunity to reshort through October. I think november and December will be wicked strong, possibly to new highs, followed by a collapse to s&p 1000 or lower.

Reverend Nihilism said...

That's been my prediction for months now Bryan, almost exactly. I plan to be out any longs by Thanksgiving though.

Ponzi Unit said...

I've got similar, and moar! targets using fibonacci arcs but I'm always fascinated when I see multiple methods come up with similar possibilities.

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d0S58UodVx0/VXvPvh-CmxI/AAAAAAAADbE/MmNGhwnmRDc/s1600/SPX%2B2015%2B06%2B13.png

I think the price of copper is something to keep an eye on, oil too I guess, but I've watched copper for a long time and it doesn't lie as well as other items of value.



Permabear Doomster said...

CG, the giant dome top is a prime scenario right now.

A bounce to 2050/70 zone would be perfect, and then indeed.. a straight fall to the Oct' low of the 1800s.

--
Anyway... have a good weekend. Sunday night could be entertaining.

Bryan Franco said...

Rumors followed by plus or minus 45 on s&p futures quickly followed by more rumors and then a few press releases. Then some unches, plus or mine 45 again by open. Unch by mid day. Then who knows.

HYPERTlGER said...

S&P 500 1970.89

S = 19
P = 16

19+16 = 35

3/5 = March 5th...the 64th day

S&P 500 down 64.84

500th prime = 3571

3/5/71 = March 5th 1971

my birthday

rounded is 1971

and 65

March 5 is the 64th day of the year (65th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. There are 301 days remaining until the end of the year.

The 1944 Bretton woods global trade system has been collapsing since 2008

64 years from 1944

44 years from my birthday...at the beginning of the end.

at the end of the beginning

The master system is out of power

1941 to 1971 was spring or 3
1971 to 2001 was summer or 6
2001 to 2031 is fall or 9

3 6 9 12 15 18

3/5 = march 5th 3 x 5 = 15 or 5+5+5

64th day

64th prime = 311

3/6 = march 6th 3 x 6 = 18 or 6+6+6

65th day

65th prime = 313

The markets are all digital electronic computerized video games now...encoded.

The correct key...or filtering algorithm = a constant supply of inflation.

whether it is what you want or not is up to you...it will be what you need regardless since you always are supplied with what you need by the universe.

Fantasies powered by reality

Fantasies = demand for power

Reality = supply of power

When the demand becomes greater than supply...the daydream fantasy begins to polarity shift into the nightmare of reality

which is a negative fantasy believed to be reality in relation to the positive daydream

Sarah Bell said...

Bryan -how long do you see this collapse to 1000 playing out - 2 to 4 years?

Christian Gustafson said...

HY PER TI GER

This must be serious!

/ES touched down near its December lows today, like the S&P did during RTH on Friday.

Looking for an short entry into September FOMC, preferably around SPX 2070 (.618 retrace, and resistance galore).

Bryan Franco said...

Sarah - No one can know. My guess though, after the market comes close to or succeeds at making new all time highs this year, the race to 1000 could be very swift. Less than two years.

Bicycle said...

ES WTI China crash mode tonight...

support on inflation-adjusted DJIA might be just below 16k... which is trend from 2000 and 2007 highs

if we blow through that...then it's happening

Reverend Nihilism said...

China is toast, it looks like depressionville for them.

sooner said...

That's one heck of an open

sooner said...

That's one heck of an open

sooner said...

That's one heck of an open