Monday, August 17, 2015

Charts 08-17: Tidy-up that channel

The drop at the open today made a mess of my short-term channel for SPX, but what we're left with is much cleaner.  I'd like to see us set a new high early in the session on Thursday, before reversing intraday and ending this op-ex week right at 2125 SPX.

Then we can finish up next week.  Anyone for 2162 SPX?  We may have to drag the daily SPX Bollinger along for the ride.

SPX 08-17

The larger waves for the initial panic crash this fall, "A" down.

SPX 08-17 1Y

34 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Hmm, these dates come up for Tom McClellan, too.

Reverend Nihilism said...

Excellent. I've been with you on everything except time frame. This looks much closer to what I'm thinking. The bulls will be getting coal in their stocking this christmas.

T.Berry said...

nothing better than hearing of another crash. wish i had more cash. : )

Bicycle said...

10-Year Volatility

Christian Gustafson said...

Zillion-dollar question here -- is the obvious and very clean inverse head & shoulders on the /ES and S&P 500 going to play out?

Bicycle said...

Well we just bounced off the bottom BB on the DJIA, and we're still in the falling wedge there as well... so possibly it could resolve... but technically speaking... we could fall almost all the way to DJIA 17k before the new ATH ramp...

Today seems like a nice shakeout... it won't be long before the PBOC comes storming back into action.

T.Berry said...

in 5 years es will be much higher. next week next month? doesn't matter . anyone still betting on a rate hike next month? in same camp as last fall, nothing till after the elections only except would be token .25 if at all. still no reason to raise.

Bicycle said...

Getting sick of these wedges on the DJIA. We need some impulse, something messy.

Christian Gustafson said...

You can't short this tape with any degree of confidence, because we don't have any kind of topping pattern or new high.

The "failed 5th" counts I have seen are most likely wrong, because a true failure would have the VIX above 20 and the SPX much lower by now. Remember in January, we had a 6-day decline, very impulsive-looking, that took weeks to correct. Various bears counted that tape as a "wave 2" retrace until it finally went higher. But up to that point, you had a 6-day decline with several weeks of correction. But of course that was wrong.

Potential triangles all over the chart, at various time intervals. IMO we still need a clearly bullish move before we can even consider getting bearish.

That inverse head & shoulders is still in play, if we can make it back to the neckline just above SPX 2100. It targets 2152 SPX, which would smack most of the Bollinger bands we care about here.

Christian Gustafson said...

By the way, you can look up your friends and business associates on the Ashley Madison email checker.

I have confirmed several email addresses via this site.

Reverend Nihilism said...

Why would anyone use their regular email address for a site like that?

Christian Gustafson said...

Because they promised privacy & discretion, plus a full scrub of your data for just $19 when you've had enough.

I hope the asshats trying to IPO this garbage lose every shekel they have.

Reverend Nihilism said...

If that site is not a sign that the country is circling the drain nothing is.

Christian Gustafson said...

Correct, good Reverend.

And if I weren't so low on disk space here (need a new lappy soon), I'd download the DB and fire up an instance of it for fun. Not for public consumption, because of the legal hassles.

But I would LOVE to query it for a list of all members in the SEATTLE, WA.

Today's leak is the best shared event on the interwebs since The Fappening, I swear it!

Christian Gustafson said...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purgatory

Bryan Franco said...

Another lower low on the Dow. How about nested leading diagonals??? I know, unlikely.

Christian Gustafson said...

You get it. There's nothing to chew on for bears here until something finally breaks. The wave pattern is an overlapping, choppy mess, and we're (for now) still comfortably trading in the range of this broadening wedge.

SDS and UVXY are banging their top daily BBs, as SPX bangs its own bottom band.

Bicycle said...

I agree with the Doomster here. DJIA 17k is a line in the sand over the next couple of days. This should be a brilliant place to get long--literally we could be about to see a 2000 point move on the Dow--but I am increasingly suspicious.

Bicycle said...

We're right on the DJIA wedge lower bound.

Bicycle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bicycle said...

Significant break of trend on the Dow at the close... sheesh

Permabear Doomster said...

re: Dow

Marginal break. Doesn't preclude a bounce for a few days, but it does highlight the increasing weakness.

Hey CG, it doesn't look like we can go any higher than sp'2134 for some months.

Hell, by end month we could be trading under sp'2000... and you know how the mainstream will be freaking out then.

Hope you are good.

... still wishing you'd get Disque installed here!

Bryan Franco said...

Tomorrow is another one of those Fridays where we have a break under a key low in the S&P. Will they (the Yellen desk) quickly "trap" the shorts per the usual, or will the they let the free market work a little and let it rip down?

Bicycle said...

re: "Marginal break". A break of trend since May, on volume. And for the first time in a very long time--we are properly resolving a large bear pattern, and we had a likely failure of a large bull pattern. Not marginal in my mind, but I guess everyone has their own definitions. Any significant bounce may not come now until DJIA 16-16.5k.

Reverend Nihilism said...

This along with the commodity slump is great cover for not raising. I'm sticking with that call, that is when the unholy short covering ramp will occur.

Christian Gustafson said...

The Fed will raise, and that will take us to 1820 within a couple of weeks, with a fearsome bounce after that.

McHugh called the top with his phi mate turn in May. He seriously did.

So here's the problem, the tape since then has not been impulsively down, which has kept people like me skeptical of whether or not the top was in.

This thing looks like a domed-top, and we have just started breaking down the right side of it all. I think this can play out through November before we start putting up down legs of the larger count (ie below 1820 SPX).

I betcha we drift sideways and slightly up (to 2046 SPX) into the September FOMC, kissing back the old rally channel trendline just as Yellen hikes rates like she said she would.

Bicycle said...

Bueller? Bueller?

Christian Gustafson said...

Ack, Bicycle, your stupid DJIA. I hate how heavy it is with respect to the S&P right now.

Bryan Franco said...

Ya, Dow looks played out for a few weeks begging the question, how much lower can the rest of the aggregates go? Near term.

Christian Gustafson said...

I wanna see us re-test the rally channel from below into FOMC, right about 2044 SPX. See it?

A few more crashes are ahead for us. I'll post charts and some babble tonight.

McHugh called the top in May with his phi mate turn 5/18.

Bryan Franco said...

Russell Micro Cap Index is green. Wow.

Bicycle said...

He definitely called an important intermediate-term top, at a minimum. The question remains, is it THE top. If we are still in a bull pattern on the DJIA, it is possible to fall quite a bit further.. but then with upside to DJIA 20k, 21k... through late 2016 and 2017. In other words, is this current top THE top, or is it the 1998 to this bull market's 2000 (yet to come)?

Bicycle said...

If we're going to really dump into the close, somewheres around DJIA 16300 is where I might expect some support...

Anyone else... with guesses?

Bicycle said...

So that close made things potentially fairly interesting for next week...