Then we can finish up next week. Anyone for 2162 SPX? We may have to drag the daily SPX Bollinger along for the ride.
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| SPX 08-17 |
The larger waves for the initial panic crash this fall, "A" down.
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| SPX 08-17 1Y |
Monday, August 17, 2015
Charts 08-17: Tidy-up that channel
The drop at the open today made a mess of my short-term channel for SPX, but what we're left with is much cleaner. I'd like to see us set a new high early in the session on Thursday, before reversing intraday and ending this op-ex week right at 2125 SPX.
Then we can finish up next week. Anyone for 2162 SPX? We may have to drag the daily SPX Bollinger along for the ride.
The larger waves for the initial panic crash this fall, "A" down.
Then we can finish up next week. Anyone for 2162 SPX? We may have to drag the daily SPX Bollinger along for the ride.
The larger waves for the initial panic crash this fall, "A" down.
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22 comments:
Hmm, these dates come up for Tom McClellan, too.
Excellent. I've been with you on everything except time frame. This looks much closer to what I'm thinking. The bulls will be getting coal in their stocking this christmas.
nothing better than hearing of another crash. wish i had more cash. : )
Zillion-dollar question here -- is the obvious and very clean inverse head & shoulders on the /ES and S&P 500 going to play out?
in 5 years es will be much higher. next week next month? doesn't matter . anyone still betting on a rate hike next month? in same camp as last fall, nothing till after the elections only except would be token .25 if at all. still no reason to raise.
You can't short this tape with any degree of confidence, because we don't have any kind of topping pattern or new high.
The "failed 5th" counts I have seen are most likely wrong, because a true failure would have the VIX above 20 and the SPX much lower by now. Remember in January, we had a 6-day decline, very impulsive-looking, that took weeks to correct. Various bears counted that tape as a "wave 2" retrace until it finally went higher. But up to that point, you had a 6-day decline with several weeks of correction. But of course that was wrong.
Potential triangles all over the chart, at various time intervals. IMO we still need a clearly bullish move before we can even consider getting bearish.
That inverse head & shoulders is still in play, if we can make it back to the neckline just above SPX 2100. It targets 2152 SPX, which would smack most of the Bollinger bands we care about here.
By the way, you can look up your friends and business associates on the Ashley Madison email checker.
I have confirmed several email addresses via this site.
Why would anyone use their regular email address for a site like that?
Because they promised privacy & discretion, plus a full scrub of your data for just $19 when you've had enough.
I hope the asshats trying to IPO this garbage lose every shekel they have.
If that site is not a sign that the country is circling the drain nothing is.
Correct, good Reverend.
And if I weren't so low on disk space here (need a new lappy soon), I'd download the DB and fire up an instance of it for fun. Not for public consumption, because of the legal hassles.
But I would LOVE to query it for a list of all members in the SEATTLE, WA.
Today's leak is the best shared event on the interwebs since The Fappening, I swear it!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purgatory
Another lower low on the Dow. How about nested leading diagonals??? I know, unlikely.
You get it. There's nothing to chew on for bears here until something finally breaks. The wave pattern is an overlapping, choppy mess, and we're (for now) still comfortably trading in the range of this broadening wedge.
SDS and UVXY are banging their top daily BBs, as SPX bangs its own bottom band.
re: Dow
Marginal break. Doesn't preclude a bounce for a few days, but it does highlight the increasing weakness.
Hey CG, it doesn't look like we can go any higher than sp'2134 for some months.
Hell, by end month we could be trading under sp'2000... and you know how the mainstream will be freaking out then.
Hope you are good.
... still wishing you'd get Disque installed here!
Tomorrow is another one of those Fridays where we have a break under a key low in the S&P. Will they (the Yellen desk) quickly "trap" the shorts per the usual, or will the they let the free market work a little and let it rip down?
This along with the commodity slump is great cover for not raising. I'm sticking with that call, that is when the unholy short covering ramp will occur.
The Fed will raise, and that will take us to 1820 within a couple of weeks, with a fearsome bounce after that.
McHugh called the top with his phi mate turn in May. He seriously did.
So here's the problem, the tape since then has not been impulsively down, which has kept people like me skeptical of whether or not the top was in.
This thing looks like a domed-top, and we have just started breaking down the right side of it all. I think this can play out through November before we start putting up down legs of the larger count (ie below 1820 SPX).
I betcha we drift sideways and slightly up (to 2046 SPX) into the September FOMC, kissing back the old rally channel trendline just as Yellen hikes rates like she said she would.
Ack, Bicycle, your stupid DJIA. I hate how heavy it is with respect to the S&P right now.
Ya, Dow looks played out for a few weeks begging the question, how much lower can the rest of the aggregates go? Near term.
I wanna see us re-test the rally channel from below into FOMC, right about 2044 SPX. See it?
A few more crashes are ahead for us. I'll post charts and some babble tonight.
McHugh called the top in May with his phi mate turn 5/18.
Russell Micro Cap Index is green. Wow.
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