Some analysts counted the swoon in late June as a "failed 5th", but this conclusion is highly unlikely, since such an event would have taken us much further south by now, certainly under the 2000 SPX level. UVXY would have spiked 30% or more in a day, and kept going. That's what a wave "failure" means -- the tape breaks and we reverse hard and fast while everyone watches.
The ending-diagonal count off the October 2014 lows is still very much in play, we will have another good opportunity to complete the darned thing and exit the eternal chop zone before August opex.
|SPX 08-04 5th wave count|
You can also see that the above tape may count as a triangle; either way, more rally is still ahead.
Then we'll see what great deflationary fun this Fall will bring.