tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post2673172249588242406..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Charts 08-04: We still need that last touch of the SPX Bollingerchristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-2246083740641572752015-08-14T13:14:58.304-07:002015-08-14T13:14:58.304-07:00Nice reversal on copper, could be telling for the ...Nice reversal on copper, could be telling for the next week or so. <br /><br />http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/copper/1-week/<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-62288175157147538602015-08-14T12:45:16.504-07:002015-08-14T12:45:16.504-07:00The wonderful Limerick King posted this on ZeroHed...The wonderful <b>Limerick King</b> posted this on ZeroHedge:<br /><br />A race to the bottom is on<br />The dollar, yen, euro & yuan<br />Global deflation<br />Will crush every nation<br />The last 30 years were a conchristiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-80417469975562088622015-08-14T12:27:56.013-07:002015-08-14T12:27:56.013-07:00I think the week after August op-ex may be our nex...I think the week after August op-ex may be our next window for that topping reversal candle, one like the massive hammer we had this week, but inverted, a gravestone doji.<br /><br />There is a GDP print 8/27. If it comes in hot, then there may no longer be any question re a rate hike in September.<br /><br />The market would sell through the actual rate hike announcement, and bottom the following week for a big, big bounce. I'll post the chart tonight. The wave 3 in the series lands in October, of course.<br /><br />Those calls I picked up are trading at 54 cents, gotta cheer for the little buggers.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-16107038831767979662015-08-14T05:57:02.177-07:002015-08-14T05:57:02.177-07:00Here's my tin foil hat theory. There will be n...Here's my tin foil hat theory. There will be no hike in Sept and that is when you will get the final ramp. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-14617291975167982422015-08-12T12:33:37.320-07:002015-08-12T12:33:37.320-07:00So long fair-weather bears. So long fair-weather bears. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-85837173857448687482015-08-12T12:17:09.901-07:002015-08-12T12:17:09.901-07:00Hammer time!
Exterminate the brutes!Hammer time!<br /><br />Exterminate the brutes!christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-51880084310412780812015-08-12T09:33:48.717-07:002015-08-12T09:33:48.717-07:00Back early from backpacking because the mountain t...Back early from backpacking because the mountain trailhead was washed-out and waaay too dangerous for my children. Apparently God decided to wipe the mountainside clean like Sodom and the Gomorrah.<br /><br />BTO 20 week 4 SPY 212 call @ .24.<br /><br />Some skin in the game. Forward, bulls! Forward!christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-24344736334523318562015-08-11T06:16:37.109-07:002015-08-11T06:16:37.109-07:00Inverted yield curve looking more proabable by the...Inverted yield curve looking more proabable by the day. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-60192599507723362172015-08-10T14:24:15.433-07:002015-08-10T14:24:15.433-07:00Bicycle, I've got a scenario for that, the par...Bicycle, I've got a scenario for that, the partial crash to 1200 SPX, with final Jaws pf Death lows in election season 2016.<br /><br />In Sekiu, WA, fresh off the trail with my girls. Back on tomorrow, we're headed up to Six Ridge, ONP, to look for berries and bears.<br /><br />Love the rally this week! Keep the market warm, guys, so I can short on Friday.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-8511313623789048812015-08-10T11:33:43.564-07:002015-08-10T11:33:43.564-07:00rate hike or no rate hike (in this camp), there wi...rate hike or no rate hike (in this camp), there will be more ath's to follow. the mkts will do the same as when qe ended, continue higher. have to admit, one of the strongest secular bull markets in history and just 6+yrs old.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-32072579222425552992015-08-07T09:51:35.585-07:002015-08-07T09:51:35.585-07:00Hey, any of you guys in the Seattle, know the Java...Hey, any of you guys in the Seattle, know the Javas, and interested in working at a Fortune 500 company?<br /><br />Drop me a line.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-37981068017542115292015-08-07T05:25:16.745-07:002015-08-07T05:25:16.745-07:00On the daily SP chart there is a suspected triangl...On the daily SP chart there is a suspected triangle, in a 'b' position (not sure if finished or not). <br />It has a definitive bearish meaning (well below the edges of that big ED thing), but: as trend does not start with triangles, any downfall should be suspected as (or part of) a correction at this point.<br /> Deprivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242885439171223112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-69291922734496255372015-08-07T05:02:19.986-07:002015-08-07T05:02:19.986-07:00"And look at that 50-200 cross about to happe..."And look at that 50-200 cross about to happen! Everyone is going to load the boat short and get their head cut off…" I agree Bicycle. The very same "bears" who recently capitulated, and were calling for DJT 30,000 in 2016 have finally turned bearish. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-8358406598562860022015-08-06T11:59:58.593-07:002015-08-06T11:59:58.593-07:00Thanks CG. Will keep that in mindThanks CG. Will keep that in mindBryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-58296292504440862952015-08-06T10:50:00.579-07:002015-08-06T10:50:00.579-07:00Bryan, that count is better than trying to count o...Bryan, that count is better than trying to count off the May high, sure.<br /><br />But it's already running into the problem that the "wave 2" correcting the first leg down is taking more time than the initial drop.<br /><br />A true "failed 5th" should be off to the races.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-63362680656867228022015-08-06T10:41:59.640-07:002015-08-06T10:41:59.640-07:00CG if the dow Putin a 5f in mid July, would that e...CG if the dow Putin a 5f in mid July, would that eliminate the 1-2 1-2 problem you are seeing?Bryan Francohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13490480303778800074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-13407092424077664972015-08-06T09:22:27.832-07:002015-08-06T09:22:27.832-07:00Thanks CG...not sure if it matters to you, but the...Thanks CG...not sure if it matters to you, but the Vix did touch the weekly lower bollinger.CChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11242350446331987041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-82746728982715846272015-08-05T21:58:19.452-07:002015-08-05T21:58:19.452-07:00That 10-handle VIX was a spike low, and a hint at ...That 10-handle VIX was a spike low, and a hint at what is ahead. Last I checked, the VIX daily BB is around 9.5 and rising, so we're not too far from that to set up a good situation to short indexes.<br /><br />UVXY made new lows early today but did not collapse. Its lower daily BB is around 17, or a 3-handle from its most recent reverse split.<br /><br />The DJIA has been a little heavier and more sluggish than the SPX, and keep in mind the possibility of a triangle on the latter here. Still bullish, right? The tape since the May high is simply not impulsive. I've seen some 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 counts, but unless they're on a steep channel (they're not), they're pretty unlikely.<br /><br />A 9 or 10-handle VIX is of course a gift from God for the right strike and expiry of "ending-diagonal breakdown" SPY puts.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-5829137042736300292015-08-05T19:43:10.906-07:002015-08-05T19:43:10.906-07:00CG - I'm in your camp that SPX needs to see hi...CG - I'm in your camp that SPX needs to see higher prices and have a more euphoric sentiment before topping. However, how do you think we can get to new highs with the VIX this low already? This morning the vix had a 10 handle...do you expect a 6-7 handle VIX in the next month? Nothing is impossible in this market but this seems highly unlikely. Just curious about your thoughts on this or perhaps a chart...CChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11242350446331987041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-65656583487802940332015-08-05T18:33:20.855-07:002015-08-05T18:33:20.855-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-81140042899094101752015-08-05T14:42:16.463-07:002015-08-05T14:42:16.463-07:00I just took a look at the VIX going back to 1990. ...I just took a look at the VIX going back to 1990. We are indeed at historic lows, I didn't even realize that. The only time we were lower was in 2007, unless I missed something. Even then we weren't lower by much. Yikes! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-80363348009698389682015-08-05T13:18:41.927-07:002015-08-05T13:18:41.927-07:00If you bought in 99 and held to today, you've ...If you bought in 99 and held to today, you've made about half that excluding dividends. Also keep in mind these aren't even real returns, when inflation is taken into account. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-35911396431684894242015-08-05T12:01:50.543-07:002015-08-05T12:01:50.543-07:00reverend isn't the historic average over 8%? t...reverend isn't the historic average over 8%? that is ok here and the past few years it's actually been much higher. staying the course as i have over 12-15 years before i'll consider selling. the stock market will be considerably higher than were it is today plus all the dividends collected over 12-15 years will add up.sure we could have a crash or two along the way that's the time to add. T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-41898848456015209312015-08-05T11:39:28.056-07:002015-08-05T11:39:28.056-07:00Oh my.<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&st=1989-03-16&en=%28today%29&id=p56596247166&a=296187083&r=1363776061098&cmd=print" rel="nofollow">Oh my</a>.christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-70735202013212923782015-08-05T08:08:45.879-07:002015-08-05T08:08:45.879-07:00"that's why being in for the long haul al..."that's why being in for the long haul always pays off" I suppose if you're satisfied with very mediocre returns, passive investing is fine. If you want to do better than 3-4% per year, timing is essential! At least that's been the case since the late 90's. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com