Friday, March 13, 2015

The Panic of 2015

April - June, gentlemen. 

Or maybe I'm just trying to stay ahead of Bicycle in the bearish arms race.  He is formidable!

SPX 1Y "Panic of 2015" crash


Christian Gustafson said...

2138 SPX as a proposed / speculative / "candidate" top here is a perfect 1.618x fib extension of the 910pt drop in the Lehman Bear cycle.

Phat Repat said...

Okay, so WWIII starts this summer?

Breathtaking stuff CG.

Christian Gustafson said...

Just crash charts here, nothing to it, draw some steep lines.

But there is always the theory that the decline everyone knows is coming, happens much faster and more violently than everyone realizes. This kind of sustained epic chart violence may be unprecedented ... but look at what it is following.

Most of these turns are based on simple Bradley turns and obvious support/resistance lines.

All I am really proposing is that we will see a crisis of confidence where the entire market goes no-bid, for 3 down cycles.

Charts like this may seem like pure fantasy, but I see them otherwise. They're like Pentagon wargaming, the various scenarios of the USSR invading the Ruhr and points beyond.

If this should happen, we may be able to anticipate (front-run) a leg or two.

Phat Repat said...

It's certainly possible CG so I'm not discounting the post or the chart.

I believe this drop is the market rattling the cage of the Fed. Hike the rates or use aggressive language and say Sayonara, Ms. Yellen. And that's pretty much what you depict.

After that upper target is when the fun begins. History speaks to higher highs if you believe the sadistics as T.Berry (or was it PBD) pointed out. Time tells all and I'm in no hurry. It all ends too soon anyhow. ;-)

Phat Repat said...

Over at Caldaro's site, the following interview was shared: Milton Berg says.... Sounds scary... ;-)

Bicycle said...

Lol. Here's a bonus chart for you.

Bicycle said...

So what do we all think is going on in the Russia?

Is Putin just hiding out in his jammies?
Was he assassinated?
Is he planning all out war?

Phat Repat said...

Rainy east coast day...

And, keeping with this gloomy day, Bicycle doesn't disappoint. lol

Of course, as we know, "That which you OWN will go down in value while that which you NEED will go up."

Has Putin surfaced yet? No worries, he's locked away with his gymnast girlie friend having a baby (or so Business Insider is speculating; said rumor has been denied). ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

Good start to opex week here. You know, we have the March New Moon right on the quad-witching March opex. The upper TL for the ending-diagonal is at 2130 SPX then.

We would certainly smack the weekly SPX upper Bollinger, and quite likely the daily as well.

Bicycle said...

Wage growth is set to go super negative, very soon. The oil feels cheap now, but won't feel so cheap after what's coming.

Bicycle said...

Remember that April 5 2014 is a blood red moon lunar eclipse. The one in April 2014 presaged the huge drop in crude.

It is the third total penumbral lunar eclipse in a rare series of 4 called a tetrad.

This century represents a peak in tetrads not seen for hundreds of years. Just have a look in the charts at the Wikipedia linked above.

Also look at the historical tetrad dates.

1949-1950 = post WWII baby boom DJIA about to go off to the races, abundant oil

1967-1968 = end of 50's-60's bull market, near peak of US oil production and oil shocks imminent, Vietnam, etc.

1985-1986 = end of 70's-early 80's depression, global oil production blasting off, good times starting for boomers

2003-2004 = tech bubble just popped, iraq oil war 2 begins, housing about to crash, Fed going unhinged, good times ending

2014-2015 = The Great Oil Crash, The Great Stock Market Crash, The Great Bond Market Crash, The Great Currency Panic, The Greatest Depression.... all begin.

2032-2033 = End of horrifying period of human history, some terrible world war has ended, Christian Gustafson and Bicycle have captured Chinese and Russian drones and are flying each other charts, local produce, and rebel communique across the continent

2043-2044 = Some other terrible bearish event happens after a 10 year respite

2050-2051 = Dawn of new era, last zombies killed, Steve Ludlum is finally bullish

E pluribus unum said...

Bravo bicycle!!!!