Monday, December 15, 2014

Pay attention to the tape

from the Thirty Years War

Pay attention to the tape -- we're at a very important juncture here.  Not only did we turn down hard on an intraday rejection of the top of the megaphone since July, but the everything since the top has been very deliberate -- and free of gaps.  Did you notice today that the drop to 1982 was a perfect fib 1.62 times the first leg off the top?

We're setting up for much larger moves in 2015.  First, looking for us to wrap up the wave count with a 1954-ish low into FOMC this week, and a bounce into Christmas.

SPX 12-15

The larger count to return us to the 1080 SPX area over Spring, with 3PDH labeling:

SPX 12-15 3PDH

And a quick look at UVXY, which was instrumental in identifying the significance of our rejecting the old megaphone upper trendline.

UVXY 12-15
GLTA ...

13 comments:

Phat Repat said...

Nice job CG; looks promising this fine morning. ;-)

I will cease the short term blather since I am not a day trader.

Target remains and looking at alternates; a T2 at 1931.62 (non-cluster) with a cluster around low 1890's starting to form.

Santa may be on strike this year.

T.Berry said...

will fomc start santa rally today? mkt seems due

Christian Gustafson said...

Gotta have the Baby Jesus on your chart these days or why bother?

The first image is from the 30 Years War -- the first one, not the recent one that started in 1914.

Christian Gustafson said...

Oh boy -- here we go --

Are we breaking out over resistance?

Are we going to make 2100 SPX by Christmas? One last episode of supreme bear abuse?

Is this a setup to make even T.Berry blush?

I picked up some spec calls, already up a penny!

Christian Gustafson said...

OMG

Phat Repat said...

Yeah, well, take a look at the DAX. It's all good! ;-)

Stop comes in at 2020. I can see clearly now...

Christian Gustafson said...

The bear count isn't totally broken -- we could have just finished v of 3 down this morning, followed by 4, and a final 5th wave down into FOMC.

But it also counts very well as a big ABC off the highs. The rest of today's session determines whether we grind out that low after all, or get another vicious rally.

Bicycle said...

Well after bouncing at Dow September highs yesterday morning, we are bouncing now at old July Dow highs. So this seems potentially temporary as it was yesterday...

I dearly hope that the CIA, knows what it is doing with Russia. The mass media comparisons this morning to Russian currency crisis of '98 are ludicrous. Not only is that fresh in the memory of Russians, but while the '98 crisis took out Yeltsin, I don't think that the Vlad is going to go down so quietly. No way is Putin going to let Obama and a cartel of middle east muslims knock him off.

We are being lured into some kind of trap. I just know it. This guy is playing a chess game. Winter starts getting real cold in a month. And he can cut the gas to Europe...

Christian Gustafson said...

2006 SPX was about the .382 retrace of what would have been the "3" in that past sequence. 2011 SPX now, and my calls popped 90%.

At some point, your mouth is agape and you just have to laugh at it all.

If and when we ever get our Bear Market back, the legs of it may look a lot like August of 2011.

T.Berry said...

'Is this a setup to make even T.Berry blush?"

once we get through fomc tomorrow we (hopefully) resume uptrend into '15. volatility creating some good buying opps ,,,but have no cash now :(

Phat Repat said...

Downtrend line on the 5 minute chart about to be tested. Holding so far. Break through that and we could very likely continue on to the 1950's.

What a day. Whew! To those that can handle the stress of day trading; hats off to you. Numbers looking good so far.

Bryan Franco said...

Covered shorts for now. Oils and Emerging Markets seem to have put in mild spike lows.

Permabear Doomster said...

By' Winter starts getting real cold in a month. And he can cut the gas to Europe...
--

Maybe Santa will give me some more blankets?