Wednesday, December 17, 2014

A bullish count and 2100 SPX are still possible

We have a legitimate 5-wave move off the market highs, with no pesky gaps in the tape that we need to fill, but the bear case is still open to the objection that these waves are not impulsive in form, not yet, at any rate.

We didn't see the more violent breakdown in the markets I thought we could.  Even with the excitement yesterday, we ended up drawing a five-wave decline that fits into a nice, tidy channel.

Here's a bullish count that puts 2100 SPX back on the board.  The still-untouched upper Bollinger Band on the SPX is up there now, taunting us.

SPX 12-16

Is Putin going to respond after Christmas?  The Western banking syndicate sorely needs more assets to financialize and securitize, in order to keep the great game going, and a major store of unburdened assets in the world is the great expanse of Russia.

Western finance could maybe squeeze another 10 years of life out of the Russian north, enough to get us through a good pod of Boomers.  The shark has to keep moving to live.

I'm excited to see what the statesman Putin has in mind as a response to our attacks.


Christian Gustafson said...

And there's always Russian market 3X ETFs like RUSS and RUSL. Wild moves on these things.

Phat Repat said...

Yeah, not sure pushing Putin too far is a good idea. But then again, when has WS had any good ideas? 10 years of continuance is highly unlikely, IMHO.

I have a reversal coming in at about 2015.28 confirmed. My ideal target on the downside is 1932.87 and I'm still looking (hoping ;-) for around 1950.96 though there is a dense cluster coming in at 2094.46 to the upside. Everything crossed; must be FedSpeak day.

Bicycle said...

The S&P 500 is a big bearish ascending broadening right angle, that can give us a new high while failing to hit that upper trendline--and still be a valid bearish pattern.

If we set new highs... be on your toes, and best behavior, bears. Satan... oops.... I mean-- Santa's watching...

Phat Repat said...

Things that make you go, WTH!?...

Nice chart Bicycle; gives me pause.

Still a short bias at this point with a reversal at 2021.98 with confirmation. Whew! ;-)

T.Berry said...

another new high on deck. might be the reoccurring theme in 2015 as we push towards 2300+.

ms janet is 3/3 and sure knows what to say to keep the bulls happy. 2100 when not if at this point is my take but disclosure i'm 100% long with no intermediate/mid term reasons to sell.

if we don't hit 2100 by year end then possibly not till feb'15. either way snp's will hit 2100.

still believe we're in mid stages of a multi-year secular bull market with no rate hikes till after '16 elections. fed will jawbone a bit but will remain ahead of the curve on any hikes. no need to raise rates anyway really?

Permabear Doomster said...

Tberry: another new high on deck. might be the reoccurring theme in 2015 as we push towards 2300+.

I look forward to seeing what the perpetual crashers say when we're in the 2300s this spring.

ps. re, rates... if Q4 GDP comes in strong, and jobless gains of 275k or more... FOMC might surprise with initial rate rise.#

In any case, higher rates... bullish. It remains ironic that most still don't understand that either.

T.Berry said...

pbd, rate hikes will effect the mkt similar to stopping qe. if by chance they do raise in '15 it's still no reason to sell. i do think 2300 is a bit conservative in '15 too.

Christian Gustafson said...

/ES gapping up 22+ handles!

I'll be very excited if we can make 2100 SPX by Christmas. Oh yes.

Bicycle said...

2300 in the Spring is possible, and is also possible for us to hit those levels while remaining in the ascending broadening right angle on the S&P.

Incidentally, were we to make it to 2300, and resolve the pattern from there, we would be looking at a downside target from that pattern of low 1300's-- probably by the FALL or at least the end of 2015.

The taller they are, the harder they fall.