Thursday, November 6, 2014

SPX almost there

The S&P 500 is now a short distance from tagging the top of its broadening-top megaphone at 2040 to 2042 SPX.  This would be a great place to close tomorrow, before a plunge to 1750.  A wave 1-2 combination into November opex would still eat most of the bearish SPY puts from 195 on down.  And after opex, well, the hedges are off, aren't they?

SPX 11-06

The Dow has already exceeded the upper bound of its megaphone.

DJIA 11-06

UVXY is showing a bullish wedge nearing completion.

UVXY 11-06

While the McClellan Oscillator had another tiny change today, telling us that pressure is building here.

McClellan 11-06

Things about to get exciting again soon?

23 comments:

Fetal Position said...

I'm still on board with another correction in November. Tony Caldero originally had this view, but has since changed. I'm not sure if he has just given in to pressure from readers, or is just keeping options open.

Suren said...

According to Ned Davis of Lowry Reports, small & mid caps are not making new highs. Hence, we are close to a major DOW & SPX top. A long drawn correction is forth coming. Europe markets are making lower highs and lower lows. Remember that Jan. 2014 was a down month with the saying how January goes, rest of the year goes.

Christian Gustafson said...

I imagine that if we get a Deflation Land-eqsue market dislocation that Tony's comments section would be very entertaining.

Bicycle said...

i want to believe

Fetal Position said...

Interesting post from Keystone this morning.

http://www.thekeystonespeculator.blogspot.com/2014/11/spx-monthly-chart-overbot-rising-wedge.html

Fetal Position said...

Looks like the mighty dollar is ready for a much needed break.

Phat Repat said...

Ho hum... Nice action but nothing for me to do at this time. I will take notice if below 2013.46 and then, for today,

Sell below 2003.78 with a Stop at 2027.88 and T1 1906.76 (non cluster).

So unless stuff get crazy, and it might, alarms set and sleepy time.

Hope it comes in as I can't take a position until trend change. ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

Maybe they can hammer USDJPY to a 116-handle into the close.

Can keep an eye on USDJPY here.

Fetal Position said...

Is it just me, or does it seem like the market is just waiting until the SPX finishes up?

Bryan Franco said...

I just bought a pathetically small lot of UVXY out of pure boredom.

Christian Gustafson said...

Is the tape holding out until Monday for some sort of intraday reversal, a gravestone doji?

It knows better than to leave a big stinkin' gap up here.

T.Berry said...

what is impressive most is almost 2 weeks after last fed qe, s&p is up 70 points over 3.5%. and hit another new ath. having trouble deciding to sell october buys given we just had a 10% correction and can't imagine having another anytime soon since it took 2 years for the recent one. oh well. gl to all

Fetal Position said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Fetal Position said...

Not really my thing, just a little friday fun.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkMIgtYB8DM&feature=youtu.be




Christian Gustafson said...

The McClellan Oscillator is telling us something -- that the market is storing up energy for a big move.

But which way?

Fetal Position said...

Looks like your target is a sure thing today.

Christian Gustafson said...

Re the tape today, you have to notice just how far the VIX, the vol ETFs, and the SPX are from their daily BBs.

IMO, those need to come in -- a lot -- before we get a chance at a good turn. Maybe by the 11/20 Bradley turn -- @ SPX 2050.

Christian Gustafson said...

Look @ the tape since 11/4, could be the 1st leg of a long, slivery ending-diagonal.

The parabolic launch off 1820 could end in a violent reversal, or it could slow down, eat the November OI puts, eat a few over-eager bears, bring the Bollingers in from their extremes, lull just about everyone to sleep, and set up for that Bradley turn mid-month.

That is to say, I'm not shorting the pop this morning. No not yet.

Fetal Position said...

Cooper is just not buying a long term uptrend from here.

T.Berry said...

dow 2% from 18k .can't see how it won't get there this year. maybe santa has it in his bag. still holding oct positions until i see something that would be cause to sell. so far up 7 out of 10 days since qe r.i.p. amazing and another new ath.

Bicycle said...

Last Tuesday I went down with an awful stomach flu. Couldn't keep anything at all down for 3 days, and didn't eat any solid food from Tuesday until Sunday... Saturday morning I blacked out and face planted straight on the floor. And last night the Bears played the worst game of all times at Lambeau Field.

I have emerged with my deflation face, gaunt, down a number of pounds, and hungry.

And after taking a fresh look at the Dow, it's abundantly clear that there is still a megaphone quite available for a top.

There's a bear in the woods...

Phat Repat said...

Bicycle; bummer about that. Seems to be going around especially with the kids.

Thanks for sharing that evolving megaphone. I haven't seen any indication to move into the market yet and really can't until a trend change. Will post my numbers when it happens.

I like that caldaro site someone shared (CG?).

Until then, yawn... ;-)

T.Berry said...

congrats on 2040-42 cg!nailed it. your 2050 in 9 days(11/20) shouldn't be a problem. it may be a stretch but 2100 could happen by y/e.